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"It's being valued like a tech company but still trades like a lender." -@StockSavvyShay
Shay on $SOFI. The stock moves day to day with rates, credit concerns and lending sentiment, and this was a very hawkish Fed week. With @StockMarketNerd and @futurenvesting.
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"Buying SoFi right now is like buying AMD or NVIDIA at the depths of their last bad part of a cycle." -@StockMarketNerd
Brad says $SOFI sentiment is overblown to the downside and most of the bad news is priced in. Now he steps in. With @StockSavvyShay and @futurenvesting.
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"Meta now starts moving from getting paid for helping create demand towards participating in the action that comes after the demand." -@StockSavvyShay
Muse hit No. 1 on the App Store on September 18, 10 days after launch. Shay on the hotel example and why only $META can do that.
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"I would not be surprised if they don't move anywhere for two years. Maybe even lower." -@StockSavvyShay
$CRWD and Cloudflare are 8% of Shay's portfolio at 100 times free cash flow, his count. Shay on the opportunity cost in cyber, @danielnewmanUV on why it is a long-term hold.
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Missed us live? Episode 57 is worth the replay.
@danielnewmanUV and @StockSavvyShay covered ETR's CIO survey on slowing AI down, the rate hike both hosts got wrong, Meta's Muse at No. 1 on the App Store, and why Shay calls his own cybersecurity names overpriced.
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@SBPewzner @StockSavvyShay @StockMarketNerd The Deep End is now on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Every Monday @StockSavvyShay and @StockMarketNerd take one stock for a full deep dive and say whether they would own it. The verdicts often split.
Spotify:
Apple:
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"They are running auctions for short term compute that are fetching $40 million plus per megawatt." -@StockMarketNerd
Medium term deals went from a little over $10 million per megawatt to over $20 million last quarter. Brad and @StockSavvyShay on why $NBIS demand is that good.
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The Deep End is now on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Every Monday @StockSavvyShay and @StockMarketNerd take one stock for a full deep dive and say whether they would own it. The verdicts often split.
Spotify:
Apple:
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"An EBITDA margin for this company is like a gross profit margin for another company." -@StockMarketNerd
$NBIS trades at a $60 billion market cap against $15 billion of 2028 EBITDA, with no free cash flow until 2030. @StockSavvyShay and Brad on what that multiple means.
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"If you said you have to have neocloud exposure in your portfolio, pick one, I don't think it would be a very difficult decision for me." -@StockMarketNerd
Brad picks $NBIS. CoreWeave maybe second, IREN not much consideration. @StockSavvyShay is bullish as well. Ep 6 is live.
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Nebius is at a $60 billion market cap against $15 billion of 2028 EBITDA, and no free cash flow until after 2030. @StockSavvyShay says that does not scream expensive. @StockMarketNerd says an EBITDA margin here is like a gross profit margin elsewhere. Both verdicts on $NBIS.
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Nebius is running auctions for short term compute at over $40 million per megawatt. Its one to three year deals were fetching a little over $10 million, and as of last quarter that is over $20 million. @StockSavvyShay and @StockMarketNerd on why $NBIS is the software neocloud.
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Missed us live? Episode 56 is worth the replay.
@danielnewmanUV and @StockSavvyShay covered the AI doom post that passed 100M views, Oracle's 121% cloud growth with a stock that went nowhere, Dell at 23x against memory, and Amazon's $60B Qualcomm commitment.
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"This prepayment structure IREN talks about as a positive is actually a vital concession." -@StockMarketNerd
Microsoft backed deals get 6% money, everyone else closer to 9%. @StockSavvyShay and Brad on whether the $IREN contracts are as good as they sound.
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"It's put up or shut up type of quarter for cybersecurity names. If you're not doing it now, when are you going to be doing this?" -@StockSavvyShay
$ZS reports after the close today. @StockMarketNerd agrees the earnings are going to be really important.
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Dell grew revenue 58% to $47B, booked $60.9B of AI server orders, and raised its full year EPS guide to $25.50. The stock closed up 16%.
Episode 55: @danielnewmanUV and @StockSavvyShay on why Dell got paid and Palo Alto, MongoDB and Credo did not.
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Schedule change this week. The live show moves to Wednesday at 3pm ET.
Dell, Palo Alto, MongoDB and Credo report tonight. Broadcom and Snowflake report tomorrow after the close.
@danielnewmanUV and @StockSavvyShay wanted to be live in the middle of that, not after it.
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LIVE TODAY AT 1 PM ET
@StockSavvyShay goes live with @infleqtion on the quantum race.
Joining him: CEO Matt Kinsella and CTO / Co-Founder Pranav Gokhale on logical qubits, the sensing revenue, and the 2027 Illinois deployment.
Set your reminder. Link in the replies.
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Shay sold IREN this week with the power thesis intact. Daniel is holding for the deal the company legally can't announce yet.
Episode 54: @StockSavvyShay and @danielnewmanUV split on governance, the capex raise, and what owning your own power is actually worth.
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@danielnewmanUV @StockSavvyShay Full episode with chapters:
The Q&A covers beach stock position sizing, Rocket Lab and ASTS after the SpaceX IPO, the Nebius price war question, and memory stocks still priced as cyclical.
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