Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende
Sr. Elections Analyst, @RCPolitics, Visiting Scholar, @AEI, Lecturer, @osupolisci. Recovering Attorney. Husband, Dad. Writes about elections, history and more.
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On poll error, first is to remember you really can't predict and pollsters are trying to fix these things all the time. Every Maine pollster understands that she always outruns her polling. But I left this image out which illustrates how extreme states see larger errors 1/2
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I'm flabbergasted by this one, honestly. Setting aside completely the merits of the distinction between "anti-semitic" and "anti-Israel," how could this possibly be what he wants to talk about a week before the election? Who gets convinced to vote for him by this one?
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“Actually Republicans will gain House seats”
Shill issue
I’m sort of shocked at how many people think “it’s nothing personal but I think you worship a monkey demon” isn’t an insulting stance. Especially people who should realize there is nothing more personal than faith.
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Seems like as good of a time as any to remind people that "Heritage American" is a bullshit, made-up term and that a person made a citizen yesterday is every bit as much of a citizen and an American as I am, or my wife's family (which stretches back at least into the 1600s).
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"Sean, how weird can things get in wave years?"
"Well, let me tell you..."
If you want my super-simple explanation of WI polling: Hong had been at about 40% in the polls since mid-July. She got 40%. Given how the last two weeks went, I can completely believe that undecideds broke overwhelmingly against her.
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These rankings tell us more about historians and political scientists than they do about presidents.
