Sam Korus(@skorusARK):Thinking about orbital compute a bit and whether the ladder comes up behind first movers: There is an interesting timing dynamic here that feels similar to what happened with EVs. Investing in orbital compute when compute is priced at a massive premium lets you work through the hardest part of the cost curve. Others can say, “maybe it gets cheaper, maybe it doesn’t,” and keep harvesting terrestrial compute profits today. But if/when the orbital cost curve does bend, there may be a period where early movers have already built the launch experience, operating know-how, customer relationships, and supply-chain position that make them hard to follow.

2026.08.07 16:17

Thinking about orbital compute a bit and whether the ladder comes up behind first movers: There is an interesting timing dynamic here that feels similar to what happened with EVs. Investing in orbital compute when compute is priced at a massive premium lets you work through the hardest part of the cost curve. Others can say, “maybe it gets cheaper, maybe it doesn’t,” and keep harvesting terrestrial compute profits today. But if/when the orbital cost curve does bend, there may be a period where early movers have already built the launch experience, operating know-how, customer relationships, and supply-chain position that make them hard to follow.

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