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Sminston With ๐Ÿ‘
@sminston_with
Bitcoin โšก Engineering PhD โšก Data & tools
878 Following    48.7K Followers
Here's a counterintuitive Bitcoin FACT you probably haven't run into before๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ‘‡ I recently saw someone claim that without Bitcoin's bubbles, it wouldn't be worth investing in since it would then miss out on all the epic gains. So I removed ALL of the bubbles, as you know I've been doing with the Bubble-free power law. Then I measured the 4-year growth rate. WITH bubbles vs WITHOUT: 2017: 109% vs 137% 2018: 84% vs 115% 2021: 35% vs 72% 2025: 17% vs 52% - - - ๐Ÿ‘€Yes, you're reading that correctly. Delete the bubbles and Bitcoin's growth rate goes UP ๐Ÿคฏ Why? A bubble inflates your return on the way in, then wrecks it four years later when that top becomes your starting point. The 17% in 2025 is measuring from the 2021 mania. Take the mania out, it's 52%. The manias were never where the gains came from. They're noise on top of an asset that has compounded faster than anything on earth for a decade WITHOUT them. They are an entirely different phase, and they come and go. Stop planning around the bubbles, people. Plan around the orange line ๐Ÿงก NFA -SW
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2026 looked more like a 2019 mini-bear market than a 2013, 2017, 2021 style bear market.
Bitcoin velocity is picking up. I explained to Joe how this effect would be expected along with the business cycle picking up, with the PMI levels acting as a potential gauge for Bitcoin velocity. ๐Ÿ‘€
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๐ŸšจFor two years my work has been scattered across the X feed. Today it finally has a home. And I'm handing you the keys. (1/7) ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡