Social Capital
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Amazon’s long-term debt increased by ~3.4x in 1 year, to $173.1B.
It borrowed $115.1B in the first 9 months of 2026 alone.
2 hours ago, Anthropic filed for an IPO.
We went through the S-1 and broke it down in 6 charts:
Worldwide spending on AI is projected to reach ~$2.7T this year.
Yet, only ~1% of it is expected to go to the models themselves.
Renting Nvidia’s H100 costs 45% more than it did in December.
It went on sale in 2022, and two newer generations have come out since.
Yet, demand for compute is so far ahead of supply that older GPUs are getting more expensive.
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US households now hold 48.2% of their financial assets in stocks, the highest on record.
At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was 38.7%.
~46% of bonds sold this year to finance US data centers are junk-rated, ~2x the share in 2025.
.@chamath on the pricing shift he thinks will make the AI market explode:
“When Google invented and scaled AdWords and AdSense, the market exploded… because we went from buying 1,000 ads to just getting an outcome. Right now we buy a million tokens. We will eventually move to an outcome. And I think when that happens, this market will just go absolutely crazy.”
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Virginia’s commercial power consumption grew ~7x faster than the national average from 2015-2025, largely driven by data centers.
we ran the numbers...
Through September, AI companies have captured ~83% of all US venture funding.
The two constraints on AI are effectively electricity and chips.
China and the U.S. have different advantages regarding both:
- China wins on raw electric power (added 543 GW of new capacity last year), but their ability to produce advanced chips is still a few years behind.
- The U.S. is ahead on chips, dependent on an international supply chain. NVIDIA and AMD design leading processors, while Taiwan’s TSMC manufactures many of them. This means access to Taiwanese factories is a critical part of American AI leadership.
The bottleneck for America is clear: we are short on electricity.
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In March 2026, Anthropic accounted for 69.5% of business AI token spend on Ramp, more than ~2x OpenAI's share.
The gap has since narrowed, with Anthropic at 51.0% and OpenAI at 44.5%.
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In 2026, cybersecurity stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by ~4x.
According to ARK, the cost per mile of a personally owned vehicle has remained at ~$1.10 for 90 years (adjusted for inflation).
By 2035, autonomous taxis could reduce that cost by 77%.
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.@chamath on superintelligence being on the scale of the Industrial Revolution:
“[The President] says that whoever wins superintelligence wins. When you think about it, he's completely right. There is no world in which you're going to have this multinational corpus of people trying to allocate wins and losses on this thing. This is on the order of the Industrial Revolution."
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In the last week of September, DeepSeek models processed more tokens on OpenRouter than OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and xAI models combined.
Open models' share of token traffic rose from about 33% in late 2025 to ~67% by October 2026.
According to the Dallas Fed, the three most exposed sectors to AI have grown output per hour at 3.7% a year since early 2024.
The rest of the economy grew at 1.7%.
~90% of frontier lab compute now goes to post-training and inference.
.@chamath on why AI job doomerism is a political strategy:
"There's an incredibly important incentive for folks that are not in the power structure today, i.e. Democrats, to take up the doomerism call to action, because it is a very straightforward way to whip up fear and then catalyze that to power in the midterms and then in '28."
"All the data up until now tells us there will be more jobs and more to do. More work to be done, more judgment, more taste to be imposed. This narrative does not come from a place of data-driven fact. It comes from a political calculus that doomerism is a way to foment distrust and displeasure and then use that at the polls."
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