🚨US MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE TODAY. HERE’S WHAT HISTORY SAYS ABOUT STOCKS.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single midterm election.
19 out of 19 times.
Not once has the index been lower a year after the vote, regardless of which party won. The average gain over those 12 months has been around 15%.
The reason is uncertainty. Markets tend to stay cautious while control of Congress is up for grabs, which is why midterm years have historically been the weakest of the 4-year presidential cycle. Once the votes are counted, that uncertainty clears and stocks have tended to rally from there.
Next year is also a pre-election year, historically the strongest of the cycle, with the S&P 500 averaging gains of about 17% since 1950.
And 2026 is already well ahead of a typical midterm year, with the S&P 500 setting more than two dozen record closes so far.
Bitcoin has followed a similar pattern, finishing higher 12 months after each of the last three midterms with an average gain of around 54%.
If history repeats, stocks and crypto could be set up for a strong year ahead.