Continuing with the highcap series I’m watching today The first one is $BATON I previously wrote my thesis and called $BATON in the channel at around $5M MC. Since then, it ran to nearly $18M and the structure is still holding up pretty well A lot of you are still asking about it, so here’s a quick update: how much of the original thesis has been validated, and what’s left to bet on from here? 1. The $BATON narrative First, let’s make one thing clear: $BATON is not an official token and it doesn’t have any real utility of its own. It’s still a community memecoin But the lore behind it has a real origin Baton Corporation Ltd is the name associated with the company behind the development of The Baton name also existed back in the Baton Finance days before the team pivoted into building So the narrative is pretty straightforward : Baton Finance => Baton Corporation => => $BATON That means the lore wasn’t completely made up by the community However, a real connection in the lore does not mean official endorsement. So far, I haven’t seen any evidence that Alon, or Baton Corporation officially backs this token 2. The catalyst I’m actually betting on is Custom Pairs $BATON appeared right as started pushing Custom Pairs, expanding the ability to pair tokens with different types of assets. The stock/tokenized asset narrative is the part I’m particularly interested in And $BATON is paired directly with $PUMP Raydium already has StonkFun, while Robinhood Chain has shown that the stock meta can attract serious liquidity and attention If wants to compete for this narrative, I don’t think having the feature alone is enough They need runners And from what I’m tracking right now, $BATON is still leading the Custom meta on That’s one of the biggest reasons my thesis hasn’t changed 3. I see $BATON as an attention bet My thesis is actually pretty simple : pushes Custom Pairs → more attention flows into the ecosystem → $PUMP gets more attention → Custom Pair tokens attract more liquidity → the market looks for a runner → $BATON has the timing + lore to capture that attention So I don’t see $BATON as simply a meme using the Baton Corporation name I see it as an attention bet on the ecosystem The harder Custom Pairs gets pushed, the more opportunities $PUMP and the strongest runners around that narrative have to capture liquidity 4. There have been many $BATONs, but the market is choosing this one There have actually been quite a few versions of $BATON launched before Most of them pumped for a while and quickly lost attention This one has been different So far, this is the longest-lasting $BATON and the one that has held attention the best from what I’ve seen With memes, I don’t really care which one launched first Narratives can be copied. Names can be copied. Lore can be copied But liquidity, mindshare, and the ability to survive multiple corrections are much harder to copy Eventually, the market usually picks only a few runners to concentrate liquidity into Right now, this version is winning that battle 5. Price action is also validating the thesis When I called it around $5M, most of the thesis was still just an expectation Since then, $BATON has gone through multiple corrections, rebuilt its structure, reclaimed the $5–8M range, broke $10M, and then expanded to nearly $18M This is the kind of meme structure I like: pump => reset => absorption => reclaim => expansion What matters isn’t how many Xs it has done What matters is that buyers are still absorbing supply after each correction and the attention hasn’t disappeared That’s why I think the market has validated a good part of the original thesis 6. From here, it needs new catalysts At $5M, I was betting that the market hadn’t priced the narrative yet After a move to nearly $18M, part of that story is clearly already priced in From here, I’m watching three things : continues pushing Custom Pairs $BATON continues holding its position as the leader And the biggest catalyst : or Alon directly acknowledges $BATON The last one hasn’t happened yet If we eventually get direct interaction from or Alon, I think the narrative could get repriced much higher But I’m not going to bet as if that’s guaranteed to happen 7. Risks The biggest risk is still attention $BATON has no product or revenue of its own and there is no official endorsement If the Custom meta cools down, another runner takes the liquidity, or $BATON loses its position as the leader, the thesis can weaken very quickly There’s also competition risk. Just because this is currently the strongest version doesn’t mean the market will choose it forever Another risk worth mentioning is the legal risk surrounding Baton Corporation/Pump.fun Baton Corporation is still involved in litigation in the US. Some claims have been dismissed, while part of the RICO claims have been allowed to proceed. That does not mean a court has found or its founders guilty of wrongdoing, but it remains an event risk worth monitoring The Baton connection is what makes the narrative powerful, but if Baton/Pump.fun faces a materially negative legal development, that same connection could become a downside catalyst And remember: $BATON is just a community meme. It is not equity or an official token of Baton Corporation/Pump.fun Lore can create attention, but lore does not create a price floor If liquidity, mindshare, or structure changes, my thesis will change too 8. My plan Even though I’m still bullish on the thesis, I don’t think you guys should FOMO at the current price $BATON has already moved from my ~$5M call to nearly $18M. The risk/reward is obviously very different now If you don’t have a position but still want to bet on the narrative, personally I’d wait for a correction toward around $11M MC and then watch how buyers and the structure react Entering here could easily make you exit liquidity for people who got in much lower and are taking profits For those who entered with me around the lower levels, I think it makes sense to keep part of the position to bet on the next catalyst, but don’t forget to manage your profits 9. Conclusion The thesis from $5M has been validated pretty well so far : The lore has a real origin The timing matched Custom Pairs It’s paired directly with $PUMP It has survived longer than the other $BATON versions The price structure remains strong And most importantly, it’s still leading the Custom meta on So I’m still bullish on the thesis But being bullish on a token doesn’t mean being bullish on every entry At these levels, I’m holding my existing position and not chasing If we correct toward $11M and the structure remains healthy, I’ll consider betting more At $5M, I was betting on the narrative From here, I’m betting on $BATON maintaining its position as the leader If it loses that leadership, loses attention, or the structure breaks down, I’ll reassess Hg5Ja55T5wESq4vyFoiVCMeHXtGyVA69X2UHq8hgpump