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Stitch
@stitchdegen
Meme Research |
Joined December 2024
4K Following    29.2K Followers
Continuing today’s memecoin recap series The first one I want to talk about is $JANE This is obviously a pretty sensitive narrative, so I want to make one thing clear from the start: the celebrities, large accounts, and media outlets talking about “I Am Jane Doe” are discussing the actual case behind it, not endorsing the $JANE memecoin But from a memecoin perspective, the thesis here is actually pretty simple : $JANE is trading attention 1. The narrative behind $JANE $JANE is riding the “I Am Jane Doe” story surrounding the Cornell case, which has been getting a lot of attention across social media The more information that comes out, the more people discuss the case, and the further the “I Am Jane Doe” narrative spreads, the larger the attention pool becomes And for memecoins, sometimes that’s all you need The flow I’m watching is pretty straightforward : Real-world story => Social attention => More people talking about Jane Doe => Memecoin speculation $JANE doesn’t have some complicated product or utility that I’m trying to value here This is simply a pure attention play 2. What makes $JANE a little different Normally, I’m pretty cautious with memecoins that build their narrative around sensitive real-world stories But there’s one thing about $JANE that makes it stand out from the usual copycats The creator rewards are being directed to the Rape Recovery Center According to the information displayed on the coin’s page, around 266 SOL, roughly $31K, has already been donated to the organization That matters to my thesis If attention keeps growing and brings more trading activity, creator rewards could continue increasing, which could also mean more funds being directed toward the charity Of course, I’m not saying buying $JANE = directly donating to charity. This is still a memecoin and it’s still extremely speculative But at least part of the attention and trading activity surrounding the token is being converted into real donations rather than the entire story simply being used to farm liquidity 3. The early numbers are pretty strong $JANE only recently launched, but the initial expansion has been pretty aggressive When I checked : MC : around $1.7M-$1.9M ATH : close to $2M Volume : $4M+ Holders : 6K+ The chart from the bonding curve also looks relatively clean so far Instead of one straight pump followed by an immediate dump, we’ve seen periods of consolidation after the expansions, buyers stepping back in, and the overall structure continuing to hold That’s what I want to see from a newly launched attention play But there’s one thing you definitely shouldn’t ignore : Liquidity is only around $66K-$68K That’s still very thin compared with a market cap approaching $2M A few large wallets exiting could change the chart very quickly, so don’t look at the market cap and assume $JANE is already some relatively safe mid-cap play This is still high-risk memecoin territory 4. The biggest catalyst is still attention This is probably the most interesting part for me The story behind the narrative is still getting attention, and I think there’s a real possibility that more public figures, celebrities, or large accounts could speak about the issue itself, bringing another wave of attention to the broader narrative If that happens, the flow is simple : More big names talking about the case => More mainstream/social attention => More searches around Jane Doe => More speculative attention potentially flowing into $JANE But again : A celebrity talking about Jane Doe does NOT mean they endorse $JANE Those are two completely different things The token is simply trying to capture the downstream attention coming from a real-world story What matters to me is whether this specific $JANE contract continues to be where that liquidity and mindshare concentrate Because if the narrative gets hot but 20 different copycats appear and split the liquidity, all that external attention might not translate into a stronger chart for $JANE 5. What I’m watching next With $JANE, I’m not really waiting for some roadmap or major team announcement I’m mainly watching three things : Attention, volume, and holders If the story continues spreading, bigger accounts start discussing it, $JANE keeps its volume, and the holder count continues growing, then the thesis remains alive for me The creator rewards mechanism also becomes more interesting if trading activity keeps increasing, because that could potentially mean more rewards being directed toward charity On the other hand, if social media is still talking about Jane Doe but token volume starts drying up, holder growth stalls, and liquidity starts moving into copycats, I’ll become much more cautious For this type of play, attention needs to convert into actual on-chain activity 6. My chart and trading plan After the run from low cap to nearly $2M, I don’t really want to chase $JANE around the current area If it keeps running without me, that’s fine. I don’t need to catch every move The dip zone I’m watching is around $1M-$1.2M MC That’s where the risk/reward starts becoming more interesting to me If $JANE comes back into the $1M-$1.2M area while the narrative is still hot, volume remains healthy, and buyers start defending the structure, I may consider taking a small position I also have a pretty clear invalidation : If it drops below $600K MC, I’m probably moving on For a pure attention play, if the market cap retraces that deeply and the initial momentum basically disappears, I don’t want to keep trying to catch the bottom just because the real-world story is still trending Attention on X doesn’t automatically mean liquidity will return On the other hand, if we don’t get the dip and $JANE cleanly breaks its $2M ATH with strong volume, continued holder growth, and mindshare still concentrated around this contract, I’ll watch the price discovery rather than FOMO into the candle My plan is pretty simple : Dip zone : $1M-$1.2M MC Invalidation : below $600K MC Break $2M + strong volume/holder growth: watch the price discovery 7. Final thesis I’m not looking at $JANE as some fundamentally strong project that I want to hold for months This is an attention trade But right now, the attention is real, the token has managed to capture part of that flow, and the early numbers are strong enough for me to keep watching it The part I like most is that creator rewards are being directed toward the Rape Recovery Center, with around 266 SOL (~$31K) already donated according to the coin page If the narrative keeps spreading and more big names speak about the broader issue, attention could continue growing. If that attention converts into $JANE volume, the creator rewards could potentially generate even more funds for the charity But ultimately, I’ll let the market tell me what to do Attention stays, volume stays, holders keep growing => thesis stays alive Attention is there but the money leaves => I move on I’m not marrying a coin like this Waiting for $1M-$1.2M for a better setup Below $600K and I’m out 9pJWJdpPebyANys45eetpemLJo8yTz4n5B9zbpYw9ZMr
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