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The Learning Pill ๐Ÿ’Š
@thelearningpill
Curating crypto alfa, insights and new projects so you can make it // Nothing here is financial advice.
1K Following    23.4K Followers
One of the most expensive line items in DeFi lending is the haircut. $AAVE advances about 73 cents against a dollar of WBTC and holds the rest back as a buffer against cascading liquidations if the market suffers a rout. Fundamentally, that buffer exists because BTC and ETH move too violently to be trusted at face value. Earlier I covered RiskON, the leveraged half of @TheRiskProtocol's split, and how it reaches ~2x without renting leverage. RiskOFF is the other half of that deposit, and it attacks the haircut directly. The pitch is simple to state and hard to build โ†’ hold $BTC or $ETH without holding the volatility that makes it expensive to use. Across last six years, which had two full cycles, 3 metrics tell the story: Annualised volatility (last six years): > RiskOFF BTC: 15.9% > RiskOFF ETH: 17.2% > Gold: 18.9% > S&P 500: 20.5% > Raw BTC: 62% / Raw ETH: 83% Worst 30 days: > RiskOFF BTC: โˆ’12.1% / RiskOFF ETH: -10.1% > Gold: -16% > S&P 500: -33% > Raw BTC: -52.7% / Raw ETH: -56% Upside foregone by RiskOFF, $1 held through the full window became: > RiskOFF BTC: $1.68 / RiskOFF ETH: $2.08 > Raw BTC: $8.69 / Raw ETH: $14.50 That gap is the trade, not a fee. Each epoch RiskOFF keeps gains up to a cap and passes everything beyond it to RiskON, the other half of the same deposit. Nothing leaks to an intermediary; one side buys calm, the other side gets paid in upside. A fair trade, and both sides chose it. It is also a better resting place than stablecoins, because RiskOFF still earns. $1 parked in a stablecoin is still $1 years later, while the same $1 in RiskOFF kept earning: up 68% on BTC and 108% on ETH. And USDC's worst day (88 cents, March 2023) was worse than any day either RiskOFF token had in the entire window. So who does this actually change the maths for? 2 main parties come to mind - protocol treasuries and borrowers. 1) A protocol treasury sitting on ETH > The only escape has been a bad binary - rotate into stables and give up every point of conviction, or hold and pray. > Using RiskOFF, part of the runway can stay in the asset the DAO believes in, and the worst month becomes -10.1% instead of -56%. 2) A borrower who needs lower volatility to avoid liquidation > The same deposit could unlock meaningfully more borrowing power, and it would get force-sold far less often into the exact falling market where liquidations cascade. > RiskOFF's daily beta on BTC is 0.20, which means when BTC moves by 10%, RiskOFF BTC moves by about 2%. That is the difference between collateral that feeds a crash and collateral that sits still through one. RiskON was the argument for concentrating risk when you have conviction. RiskOFF is the argument for what to do with the conviction you cannot afford to gamble. Most portfolios need both seats filled, and until now DeFi only sold one of them cleanly.
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5๏ธโƒฃ RWA x DeFi moves you can make from @PinkBrains_io Incredible and highly recommended to read - shows you where you can get RWA exposure in DeFi Spans across: - collateral - deposit for yield - commodities (i.e. tokenised gold) - tranching You don't want to miss this ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Why launch on @arbitrum as an L2 instead of building your own chain? This is a very apt topic corresponding to how Robinhood Chain as performed since its launch. @RobinhoodCrypto had every reason to go the other way with its audience and credentials. Owning an L1 means owning consensus. > Recruiting validators, subsidising them through token issuance or fiat handouts, and carrying that cost whether ten people use the chain or ten million. > By late 2025, the annual security budget across Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum combined ran into the billions, a cost that most builders would not want to foot. An L2 skips that bill. > Robinhood Chain settles to Ethereum's validator set, close to a million validators securing $78 billion in staked ETH, and pays for that security only through the fees it generates. > No token to bootstrap, no subsidy to keep the lights on, which is why $ARB's own L2s report 90 to 98 percent operating margins. The receipt makes the point better than the theory. One tally circulating puts Robinhood Chain's revenue since launch at roughly $816K. By share, Robinhood keeps 89%, Arbitrum 10%, Ethereum 0.15%. If you've read that as Ethereum leaving money on the table and you've missed why Robinhood is here at all. Near-cost settlement with no landlord taking equity in the business built on top is the actual pitch. Every company that says "we need our own chain" is usually asking for control over fees, sequencing and compliance, not consensus. Ethereum's underpricing is precisely what made the deal make sense, not just for Robinhood, but for more chains to build their L2 on (with unique propositions).
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Five straight months of TVL decline? Five straight months of shrinking active loans? Read only those two lines and you'd think June was quiet for $AAVE. Six other numbers say otherwise ๐Ÿ‘‡ 1) v4 is compounding fast โ†’ TVL went from $4.5M in March to $170.5M in June, roughly 38x in three months, growing against a shrinking aggregate. 2) v4 borrowing is outpacing deposits โ†’ active loans ended June at $75.5M, up from a $47.3M average in May, a sign the new markets are being used for credit, not parked as idle liquidity. 3) RWA lending crossed $500M. Active RWA-backed loans across Horizon and Aave's other markets hit that mark at the end of June. 4) Gold collateral quadrupled in a month โ†’ $XAUT backing gold loans on v4 went from $1.1M to $4.4M, an all-time high for that market. 5) $GHO hasn't had a down month in a year โ†’ its market cap rose for a twelfth straight month to $547.9M, up 128.5% year on year. 6) Revenue grew while fees kept shrinking โ†’ DAO revenue hit $8.4M in June, up 70.8% MoM and 11.1% YoY, even as total fees were still down 21.5% YoY. In a couple weeks of July, we've seen $GHO deployed natively on Arbitrum, Stable Vaults and the Global Dollar Hub. If the pace holds, H2 will likely see TVL recovering and more channels giving these Aave stats a boost, further securing its place as one of the top DeFi blue-chips.
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The token paying out the most yield over the past 30 days is also losing momentum fast among the category leaders. Some stats to consider ๐Ÿ‘‡ โ€ข Though Sky $sUSDS paid out $15.98M, nearly double Circle $USYC in second place. It is also down 6.61% compared to the latter which grew 20% โ€ข Leading names like Ethena $sUSDe YPO is down 12.48% โ€ข sUSDai a fraction of that size, grew 13.29% in YPO Being the biggest payer and being the fastest-growing payer have turned out to be two different races. Right now, no single name is winning both.
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The token paying out the most yield over the past 30 days is also losing momentum fast among the category leaders. Some stats to consider ๐Ÿ‘‡ โ€ข Though Sky $sUSDS paid out $15.98M, nearly double Circle $USYC in second place. It is also down 6.61% compared to the latter which grew 20% โ€ข Leading names like Ethena $sUSDe YPO is down 12.48% โ€ข sUSDai a fraction of that size, grew 13.29% in YPO Being the biggest payer and being the fastest-growing payer have turned out to be two different races. Right now, no single name is winning both.
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Why launch on @arbitrum as an L2 instead of building your own chain? This is a very apt topic corresponding to how Robinhood Chain as performed since its launch. @RobinhoodCrypto had every reason to go the other way with its audience and credentials. Owning an L1 means owning consensus. > Recruiting validators, subsidising them through token issuance or fiat handouts, and carrying that cost whether ten people use the chain or ten million. > By late 2025, the annual security budget across Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum combined ran into the billions, a cost that most builders would not want to foot. An L2 skips that bill. > Robinhood Chain settles to Ethereum's validator set, close to a million validators securing $78 billion in staked ETH, and pays for that security only through the fees it generates. > No token to bootstrap, no subsidy to keep the lights on, which is why $ARB's own L2s report 90 to 98 percent operating margins. The receipt makes the point better than the theory. One tally circulating puts Robinhood Chain's revenue since launch at roughly $816K. By share, Robinhood keeps 89%, Arbitrum 10%, Ethereum 0.15%. If you've read that as Ethereum leaving money on the table and you've missed why Robinhood is here at all. Near-cost settlement with no landlord taking equity in the business built on top is the actual pitch. Every company that says "we need our own chain" is usually asking for control over fees, sequencing and compliance, not consensus. Ethereum's underpricing is precisely what made the deal make sense, not just for Robinhood, but for more chains to build their L2 on (with unique propositions).
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Five straight months of TVL decline? Five straight months of shrinking active loans? Read only those two lines and you'd think June was quiet for $AAVE. Six other numbers say otherwise ๐Ÿ‘‡ 1) v4 is compounding fast โ†’ TVL went from $4.5M in March to $170.5M in June, roughly 38x in three months, growing against a shrinking aggregate. 2) v4 borrowing is outpacing deposits โ†’ active loans ended June at $75.5M, up from a $47.3M average in May, a sign the new markets are being used for credit, not parked as idle liquidity. 3) RWA lending crossed $500M. Active RWA-backed loans across Horizon and Aave's other markets hit that mark at the end of June. 4) Gold collateral quadrupled in a month โ†’ $XAUT backing gold loans on v4 went from $1.1M to $4.4M, an all-time high for that market. 5) $GHO hasn't had a down month in a year โ†’ its market cap rose for a twelfth straight month to $547.9M, up 128.5% year on year. 6) Revenue grew while fees kept shrinking โ†’ DAO revenue hit $8.4M in June, up 70.8% MoM and 11.1% YoY, even as total fees were still down 21.5% YoY. In a couple weeks of July, we've seen $GHO deployed natively on Arbitrum, Stable Vaults and the Global Dollar Hub. If the pace holds, H2 will likely see TVL recovering and more channels giving these Aave stats a boost, further securing its place as one of the top DeFi blue-chips.
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Robinhood was almost named $CASHCAT. That's it, that's the whole origin story. Someone turned it into a token anyway, and it's sitting on a $160M market cap right now. "Working for your bags" shows up differently depending on which side you're on ๐Ÿ‘‡
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A public ledger doesn't just let one company see you, it lets anyone with a block explorer see you. I'd argue $NEAR Intents is one of the better options out there atm: > An intent gets fulfilled and settled without exposing the order's mechanics to the public ledger > No operator sits in the middle holding a full view of the account > Liquidity routes across chains and assets > NEAR's capture rate on this activity is up 2.7x in the past 30D NEAR's been assembling the pieces for this since 2017 - its time for the agentic, private, and agnostic chain to take flight.
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he fooled almost 100k+ people on X : the tweet below claiming a guy turned $15 to $10M on $CASHCAT is a larp while selling you fake dreams about crypto how did i understand that in 2 secs by just staring at the half address he shared ? the wallet he shared : 0x6GHKwโ€ฆ6htt contains letters greater than โ€˜ F โ€™ like : G,H,K,W,H,T, - they come after letter F and since robinhood is an L2 evm chain so all its addresses will follow 20-byte(160-bit) and represented in hexadecimal (base-16) what is that ? base-16 = 16 symbols 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,a,b,c,d,e,f - only all evm chains follow this standard and G,H,K,T etc are not part of base-16 - so they donโ€™t exist in hex that's how i easily understood he was faking it without even checking dex-screener man its really hard to trust CT these days almost everything is fake
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My 2026 thesis has been BTC becoming DeFi-efficient, and $STRC pushed that further than I expected. The @Starknet numbers say the shift is still early though. 1,099.9 BTC has bridged in, and only 312.7 BTC of it, a 28.43% utility ratio, is actually deployed. The other 787 BTC just sits idle, more than 2.5x what's working. Found this on Midas by @Aegis_fyi, the closest thing to an explorer built for BTCFi specifically, tracking movement across @vesuxyz, @EkuboProtocol and @avnu_fi in one place instead of checking each protocol separately. Not sponsored, just flagging it because it's the kind of tooling BTCFi has been missing. Worth a bookmark if you're tracking this closely.
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Bitcoin shouldn't require five apps to earn yield. Meet Midas. The easiest way to put your BTC to work on Starknet.
Most crypto card comparisons rank cards by the number at the top of the page โ†’ cashback percentage. Who doesn't like a little kickback when spending, right? Ranked+'s new usability framework says that number is rarely the one that decides whether a card actually works for you. 3 takeaways you should definitely know: 1) Availability beats rewards > @KoloHub and @KASTxyz share the widest country coverage in the dataset at 186 markets, but Kolo is virtual only while KAST ships a physical card too > For anyone who needs an ATM or an in-store backup, that single detail decides the winner before either fee table gets opened 2) 0% FX fee is not 0% cost > @coca_card , @wirexapp, @lava_xyz and @Revolut Crypto all list a zero FX fee. > Underneath that number sit the network spread inside the Visa or Mastercard rate, issuer markup and the crypto-to-fiat conversion spread 3) Headline cashback compresses fast > @BitgetWallet Card tops the shortlist with a 15% average midpoint, but after adjusting for token volatility, staking tiers and payout caps, that edge narrows, sometimes to nothing Same pattern in all three โ†’ the number on the label is rarely the number you end up with.
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Being bullish is fine. Being bullish without reading the disclosures is how you end up repeating a take that's wrong. @Louround_ went through @RobinhoodApp's actual filing on the $LIT perps integration. What doesn't hold up once you check it against the fine print: 1) "27M Robinhood users just got perps." > Robinhood's exclusion list covers the US, UK, Canada, Switzerland, UAE and Singapore, so most of that 27M-account US brokerage base is locked out. The product is actually live for the EU and 120+ other countries. 2) "Robinhood users are options traders, they won't touch perps." > Robinhood did 586M options contracts last quarter and 320% growth in event contract revenue, and a perp is simpler to use than an option with no expiry or strike to pick. 3) "EU users finally get perps." > They've had them since last year through Robinhood's own regulated product. What's new is single-stock perps and tokenised equities usable as DeFi collateral, not perps themselves. 4) "Massive volume incoming for Lighter." > This deployment runs on a separate, thinner orderbook with market orders only and no stop-loss, built for small flow rather than size. 5) "It's just an integration." > It's the first "Lighter Domain," a franchise model where Lighter becomes the matching engine behind someone else's distribution Enjoy takes like this that actually strips out most of the noise. Majority of the perp DEX trades will come down to one date: August 7. That's when CLARITY either clears the Senate or Lighter's US thesis waits another cycle.
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The stablecoin market just crossed $317B, and the next constraint isn't creating more of it. It's making that capital spend without ever going idle. Stripe and @privy_io shipped exactly that: a prepaid Visa card, issued by Lead Bank, tied directly to DeFi vault balances. However, the innovative part isn't the card - cards linked to crypto balances aren't new. It's that a DeFi position can now function as a checking account without breaking its yield, collapsing the divide between where you earn and where you spend. e.g. Deposit into vaults โ†’ earning yields โ†’ spend the yields A huge unlock for DeFi imo.
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1/ Privy devs can now issue cards to spend directly from their connected DeFi vaults. Traditional banking makes you choose between checking and savings accounts. Earn or spend, but not both. Working with Stripe, your Privy balance earns yield until the moment you tap to pay.
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Basis trade was never going to reprice $ENA till ATHs nor provide the stability in the yield compression wars so the pivotal diversification continues. We've seen new paths in the recent weeks: 1) @BlackRock listing USDe on Aladdin, the risk platform sitting on top of $20 trillion in institutional assets, is the top of that funnel โ†’ it puts the asset in front of the insurers and pension funds who couldn't previously access it inside their own workflow. 2) @Securitize's planned $250 million STAC allocation does similar work on the collateral side, adding AAA CLO exposure that makes the desk harder to break under stress. The more interesting data point is how the @coinbase integration has actually performed. Crossing $150M in deposits proves 2 things to me: > Finding the right distribution rail matters more than adding another asset class > USDe works fine in a tradfi, and the demand for it is real The access opens the door for @ethena.
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At the beginning, @ethena launched as one trade in a wrapper: short the perp, hold the spot, pass the basis to users. When funding ran hot, sUSDe paid north of 20%. That trade is now crowded and commoditised. Basis trade โ†’ drying up Institutional lending โ†’ ~5%, uncorrelated AAA CLOs โ†’ credit-driven, near-zero crypto correlation So @ethena rebuilt itself into something else entirely = an actively managed yield desk Yet, none of the new strategies will recreate the 20% era. They all converge near 5%, roughly where USDC on Aave already sits. Which is exactly why the @coinbase partnership is a valuable pillar. A diversified yield desk only works if it has somewhere to sell. Coinbase already routes ~63.5% of USD deposits on Morpho Base, around $2.3B, and Ethena gives those users one product that holds lending, RWAs, and basis trades at once instead of forcing them to pick. Even modest penetration of Coinbase's stablecoin base would move deposits meaningfully. The more interesting second-order effect is on $ENA itself. Morpho has consistently traded at a premium to Aave because the market prices in the value of Coinbase distribution. If Ethena becomes a core yield product inside Coinbase's stablecoin stack, the same premium logic could begin to apply to ENA, though that is a possibility the market may price in over time, not a guarantee.
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Most crypto USPs still sell the wrong thing: fastest chain, highest TPS, lowest fees. The job to be done was never "use a wallet." It was send, save, pay, escape a banking system that quit on them. As mentioned here, the build order is where most teams lose: Wallet โ†’ Token โ†’ Chain โ†’ Users The reverse order might be the solution: User โ†’ Problem โ†’ Better experience โ†’ Crypto rails Watch it happen in the cards. Crypto card volume hit $9.9B cumulative this month, up from $2.3B a year ago, and last month set a record at $866M. Spending is supposed to track the speculative cycle - this time it didn't, because the people tapping these cards want dollars that work, not a bet. Riders never cared whether Uber ran on AWS, likewise, future users probably won't care whether an app settles on Ethereum or stablecoins. Crypto spent a decade selling crypto. The decade that pays, I'm convinced, belongs to products that solve a real problem and bury the rails. (Data: @Paymentscan )
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How to build a great crypto consumer app in 2026. The Thesis: The real opportunity is not to build better crypto apps but to build apps where crypto is the substrate and the access point to new experiences.ย  The Four Tenets: Any bet made under this thesis should clear four tests. 1. Think in terms of outcomes: Stablecoins are not applications but infrastructure, and, depending on the user, they can be a way to do business cheaper, or a way to flee a tyrannical government. Applications are what gets built on top of this infrastructure, e.g a payments app. You cannot just โ€œbuild an app for stablecoins,โ€ you must build an app that serves a specific user set with a specific outcome. This is my hunch as to why crypto wallets have largely failed outside of crypto: they are far too general purpose. If I tell a friend to download a wallet, there is no outcome I can share with them. B2B businesses have it better, if we look at Bridge which got acquired by Stripe for $1B in cash, it's clear that their outcome as a business was simple: โ€œBusinesses choose Bridge as the only platform they need to easily receive, store, convert, issue and spend stablecoins.โ€ So, if your were to build something, it would be prudent to build for an OUTCOME for a user you narrow down.ย  While working, any feature addition, any marketing spend idea should be delivered with an attached outcome, otherwise it is just vibes based work.ย  2. Real users from day one:ย  The product has to meet an existing need vs manufacture a new one. Crypto has spent a decade building solutions in search of problems. The user base on day one should be people who already do the behaviour in question and would switch to a better version of it, and it must be ten times better, not 10% better. โ€จโ€จ3. 10x better, not 10% better UX is the moat! The internal ordering of future teams, from the engineering priorities, the roadmap, all of it has to flow from user experience rather than raw protocol capability. This is how Revolut out-executed every incumbent bank in Europe despite having a weaker balance sheet and a narrower product range for years. Marginal improvement does not move users off an incumbent. A crypto card that is slightly better than Revolut loses, it does not disrupt user behavior. But, a crypto card that does something Revolut structurally cannot, eg lets say, introduce user-programmable bill splitting or private settlements, might actually stand a chance.ย  โ€จ4. Catching key lifestyle trends Many winners rarely invent categories, they tend to catch a shift in user behaviour of an existing category. BeReal did not invent photo sharing but it caught the moment when curated Instagram felt exhausting. Aave did not invent lending but it caught the moment when permissioned finance became more restrictive and less globalized and when decentralized currency holdings created whales locked out of permissioned finance. Revolut did not invent banking but it caught the moment when old boomer banks felt hard to use and an online native younger generation started to have more disposable income. The ideas are out there, AI accelerates the ability to execute them, but an idea is only as good as the user need it serves at a given time. โ€” The real power lies in using crypto as a substrate to power new experiences and having the product discipline and user empathy to build for a real audience with a real need.
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