What If The Fed Doesn’t Hike Rates This Week? Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @LanceRoberts and @AdamTaggart discuss why the Fed may ultimately decide not to hike rates this week, despite renewed inflation concerns and growing pressure for policymakers to demonstrate that they remain serious about fighting inflation. Lance lays out three main reasons why he believes waiting could make more sense. * 1. The latest PPI report is expected to be revised at the end of the month, potentially lowering the reported inflation rate. If policymakers know an important inflation reading could soon change, why tighten policy based on a number that may not accurately represent the underlying trend? * 2. Much of the recent inflation pressure has been driven by the tremendous spike in oil prices. Energy feeds directly into production costs and PPI, but an oil shock isn't necessarily evidence that the domestic economy is overheating. If geopolitical conditions change, oil could reverse sharply and quickly remove a significant source of the inflation pressure. That creates a potentially dangerous scenario for the Fed: hike rates because oil pushed inflation higher, then watch oil fall 20–30%, employment weaken or markets correct, and suddenly find yourself needing to cut rates shortly after hiking them. That kind of policy reversal could do more damage to Fed credibility than simply waiting for additional data. * 3. Underlying inflation isn't nearly as alarming as the headline numbers suggest. Core CPI and core PPI are much closer to the Fed's 2% target, with core CPI around 2.3–2.4%. With the fed funds rate around 3.75% and underlying inflation roughly 2.5%, monetary policy is already restrictive. * At the same time, recent employment data have been exceptionally weak. That's hardly the profile of an economy clearly overheating and demanding another immediate round of tightening. * Lance argues that the Fed should instead wait for evidence that inflation is becoming structurally embedded through stronger economic activity. If investment such as data-center construction drives enough economic growth to create persistent inflationary pressure, then the Fed would have a stronger fundamental reason to hike. * The bigger question is whether the Fed should deliver a 25-basis-point "PR hike" simply to signal that it's serious about inflation. That may sound appealing, but what message does it send if the Fed hikes this week and then has to cut at the next meeting because oil collapses, employment deteriorates or the market falls 10–15%? The Fed doesn't just have to fight inflation. It has to preserve credibility. * The key distinction is temporary, commodity-driven inflation versus persistent inflation generated by an overheating economy. If the current spike is mostly the former, hiking now could turn out to be exactly the policy mistake the Fed wants to avoid. #Fed# #ratehike# #interestrates# 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with @LanceRoberts by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️