🚨🚨🚨 U.S. vacancies-to-unemployed ratio hits highest level since January 2025 There are now 1.05 job openings for every unemployed American. The Fed has 3 options for September: 1. HIKE 25bps (58% chance) Likely pushes Treasury yields and the dollar higher. Bad for high-growth stocks, crypto, and other rate-sensitive assets. Borrowing gets even more expensive, and financial conditions tighten further. 2. HOLD (39% chance) Probably the least disruptive option. With markets currently leaning toward a hike, a hold could initially bring some relief to stocks and bonds. But a hawkish Powell-style message could quickly erase that move. 3. CUT 25bps (1% chance) Likely sends short-term yields and the dollar lower, and gives risk assets an immediate boost. But, cutting while inflation remains elevated could reignite inflation fears and raise questions about Fed credibility. Limitless traders currently see a 25bps hike as the most likely outcome, with a 58% chance of it happening. 🔴 Market: Friday’s jobs report could decide which path the Fed takes. More pain for the markets coming?