on spaceX vs Tesla very crudely: robotaxi is a bigger opportunity than starlink but orbital compute is a *much* bigger opportunity than robotaxi and optimus requires more baking time than orbital compute and Optimus's success is predicated on access to gobsmacking amounts of superintelligence On our modeling, compared against the no merger case, even if merged at the current share price ratio Tesla shareholders would be ~1.6x better off in 2031 while SpaceX shareholders would be ~2x better off. On a longer timeframe (2036) Tesla shareholders would be ~5x better off having merged whereas SpaceX shareholders should be more indifferent ~1.3x better off. So the fair premium depends heavily on your timeframe. On longer time horizons SpaceX shareholders should be asking for a discount. On shorter time horizons Tesla shareholders should be asking for a premium. But everyone is better off with a merged entity. A 30% premium paid on Tesla's share price to day would effectively split the difference on the 2031 time frame; Tesla acquired at a 50% discount would equilibreate return differentials on the 2036 time horizon.