may.crypto {🦅}
@xmayeth
trading addict | prediction markets | founder @xspreadmap
816 Following 39.3K Followers
avg $1,230/day on Polymarket. it comes from changes in the weather forecast, which is free and open to everyone.
the setup guide is in this post
the market already prices the forecast itself pretty accurately.
the money shows up the moment the forecast changes and the price hasn't yet.
how it works in practice:
when a new forecast for the next day comes out and the temperature in it moved by at least 0.5°C, you buy the option one degree closer to the new forecast.
say the morning forecast promised 16.8°C in London, so the 17°C option is the priciest. in the afternoon a new forecast comes out with 15.8°C. your job is to buy 16°C while it's still cheap.
the buy range where the EDGE holds: 5¢ to 60¢. the faster you do it, the higher your ROI
how to set it up:
1 - get forecasts for free on Open-Meteo. it has the american GFS model and the european ECMWF. use the airport coordinates, that's where Polymarket measures the temperature.
2 - the bot should check on a timer whether a new forecast is out, and if it is, compare it to the previous one.
3 - if tomorrow's high moved by 0.5°C or more, the bot buys the option one degree closer to the new forecast.
4 - keep each trade under $25. cheap sellers on these markets are thin, and more size will eat the edge.
one bot trades these forecast shifts across 50 cities every hour.
in september that's avg $1,230/day
here's the profile:
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$700/day on the 5m BTC market.
Polymarket x Binance.
it repeats hundreds of times a day.
the whole thing fits in one line: when to buy, at what price and how fast.
the bot watches BTC on Binance and uses it to work out what the UP share on Polymarket should cost right now. if that price jumps 20c+ within 5 seconds and goes over 60c, while Polymarket is still selling the share 10c+ cheaper, you buy in that same second.
say the window opened at 83,200. in 5 seconds BTC on Binance goes from 83,215 to 83,330, with 2 minutes left in the window. by the math UP goes from 55c to 77c, and Polymarket is still selling it at 56c. that's a 21c gap, you buy.
how to run it yourself:
prices on Polymarket are set by people and bots who watch Binance and adjust to the price there. so Binance is what we care about first.
we're waiting for sharp price jumps.
what we're after is the gap between Binance and Polymarket.
here's the edge:
first - your bot has to tie the $ price on Binance to the share price (¢) on Polymarket.
second - the bot has to compare the exchange price and PM every second.
the moment a 10c spread shows up, the bot opens a trade on Polymarket in that same second, in the direction Binance moved.
here's a wallet that traded it:
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the market gives 83% odds that the token launches before the end of the year. farming it can make you $200/day.
this post is the step-by-step guide
the last project backed by Binance dropped 704M tokens in its airdrop. at the peak that was about $12k per wallet.
predict fun has the same backer and it's already built into Binance Wallet. no token yet, but they're hinting it's coming soon
to farm it you open two trades on the same event, on opposite outcomes.
that's how you farm points on predict fun and make 3-6% per trade off sports arbitrage
here's how:
1 - make an account on predict fun and 1-2 crypto sportsbooks
2 - open the arb scanner -
3 - set your filters: pre-match, esports (easiest one to start with), venues predict fun plus the books you signed up for and funded. that's how you farm points and get paid.
4 - find a trade with 3-6% ROI
5 - open it.
when the match ends, collect your profit, move your capital around and open the next trade.
make sure you use the trial, it gives you 3 days of free access. in the spreadmap traders chat, in the updates thread, there's a bonus promo for 4 more days of your subscription.
if the token gets delayed you lose nothing: the profit from your trades is yours right away, and the points keep stacking
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$POLY isn't out yet, and farming it already pays 3-6% a day. just open two trades on the same match.
the whole path is in this post
HYPE was worth $4.2b on airdrop day, now it's $86b. people who farmed it early got $13k per wallet on average.
Polymarket makes 4x more, and its token hasn't launched yet
you can farm it at a profit: take one side of a match on Polymarket and the other at a sportsbook.
the first trade goes toward your airdrop volume, the second locks in your profit before the match even starts, thanks to arbitrage
here's how:
1 - make an account on Polymarket and 1-2 crypto sportsbooks
2 - open the arb scanner -
3 - set your filters: pre-match, esports (easiest one to start with), venues Polymarket plus the books you signed up for and funded. that's how you make volume for the drop and get paid.
4 - find a trade with 3-6% ROI
5 - open it.
when the match ends, collect your profit, move your capital around and open the next trade.
make sure you use the trial, it gives you 3 days of free access. in the spreadmap traders chat, in the start here thread, there's a bonus promo for 3 more days of your subscription.
when $POLY launches, you'll show up to the airdrop with your volume already farmed and your profit already looted
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GTA VI on Polymarket pays ~40% APR. it looks like a nobrain trade
and here's why:
pre-orders are already open and rockstar set pre-load for november 12.
in 19 years rockstar has never pushed a set GTA date with less than 75 days to go. right now there are 45 left
take-two has $8B of annual revenue riding on november 19.
in August they confirmed the date to investors one more time.
there's only one risk.
in 2010 Rockstar pushed Red Dead Redemption back 3 weeks, 55 days before release.
if GTA VI goes the same way, release slides into december and YES goes to zero.
market's here, November 30 line:
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my crypto lore
first crypto bought: ETH 2017
first memecoin bought: DOGE
biggest bag: USDT
biggest fumble: bought a Milady Maker for 7.2 eth right at the peak, around $28,000 at the time. at least now she looks good as my pfp
favorite crypto: $HYPE
your turn
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my crypto lore
first crypto bought: btc 2022
first memecoin bought: pepe
biggest bag: USDC
biggest fumble: in 2022 I chose P2P instead of on-chain activities
favorite crypto: $HYPE
your turn
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HOW TO MAKE MONEY ON SPORTS ARB
1. open an arb scanner
2. pick a sport you know at least a little
3. wait for an arb
4. open both sportsbooks
5. double-check the odds
6. open the trade
7. 12 hours later, collect +$886 profit
here's the scanner, 3-day free trial:
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farming the $POLY airdrop costs you nothing.
i know a guy who did $348k vol for $0
this might be the biggest airdrop in crypto history, the company is valued at $21b.
to make volume you have to trade.
but you can skip that part!!
here's how:
1 - open an event with a bunch of outcomes. elections, sports leagues, whatever
2 - split $1 into a YES + NO pair on one candidate. technically it's not trading, you just swapped a dollar for shares
3 - convert the NO and you get YES on every other candidate. simple logic: him losing (NO) = someone else winning (YES)
4 - sell all the YES and you get back almost everything you put in. this is the step where the airdrop volume gets made
5 - one loop costs you about 0.9% in fees. part of it comes back as rebates if you sell with limit orders instead of hitting bids - that's the cheapest way to run it
IMPORTANT! pick liquid events, the bids are already sitting there for you to dump your positions into.
on fresh markets the book is empty, so you risk sitting on locked funds and going negative
here's the guy farming the drop this way:
but don't look at his PnL.
with almost half a million in "profit" his biggest actual win is $354. the rest comes from an entry price of a couple cents that he never paid
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this wallet pulls $320 a day out of weather markets on Polymarket. it started with less than $1,000
the whole thing is two buttons:
the first one puts him in the book on both sides of the same market.
the second one turns the pair he collected back into a dollar, before the market even resolves.
i reverse engineered his loop step by step.
here's how he runs it:
1 - he takes the daily weather markets. every degree is its own outcome. that's about 130 events a day
2 - one event (one city) runs him about 58 trades and $155
3 - he stands on both sides: NO around 76c, YES around 21c. 81% of his fills land on limit orders, the rest he picks up at market
4 - once the set is complete he swaps it for $1. the gap between the buck and what the set cost him is his margin
the set doesn't always come together. what's left hanging he just sits on until it resolves, and that's about the same money again.
43% of his orders go in before the day even starts in that city.
the same dollar goes around the loop all day long.
that's how he's bought $1.27m of contracts while never holding more than $975 of his own money in play
here's his profile:
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my Polymarket stack that brings in $150,000 a year. every tool here is ready to go, just grab it and use it.
bookmark it
this stack lets you spot moves early, get in at the best price and catch pricing gaps across platforms. put together, that's your edge
@Polysights - their insider finder tracks wallets that win consistently and shows where they're putting money. ready-made trade ideas
@xspreadmap - where i find sports arbitrage between Polymarket and sportsbooks. i bet both sides and pocket the difference either way. my average ROI is 3.5% per trade
@kairostradex - i open positions through it at the best price. it sees prices on three platforms at once and fills wherever it's cheaper. backed by a16z
@Poly_Helper - puts a bonds tab right on the market page: almost-resolved markets with annualized yield. not farming their points for the airdrop, i'm here for the bonds
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i started a $1,000 to $5,000 challenge on sports arbitrage. 2 days in, +19% on the deposit
one trade takes a couple of minutes: take opposite sides, wait for the match to end and collect the profit either way
grab the setup below
to start, you'll need accounts on:
leg 1: Polymarket, Kalshi or Pinnacle
leg 2: any crypto sportsbook from the scanner
in filters, set:
> total stake: 250-1000
> min ROI: 0.5%
> markets: pre-match
> sports: pick a couple
> executable size: 50
> venues: only where you're funded
> hide 50-51¢: on
plug it into the scanner:
first 3 days free.
next challenge update coming soon
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sports arb printing?
every 3 minutes a new arbitrage trade at +5% pops up. i built a product that catches them.
i make $200-500 a day off it since Polymarket blew up. depends on my hours and whether it's live or pre-match.
my project is spreadmap.
you open the site and see the trades in a list.
the scanner does all the dirty work: finds the gap, sizes the positions, cuts the fees, shows ROI and PnL.
before your first trade, open filters and set:
> total stake $250
> executable size: 100
> markets: pre-match
> hide 50-51¢
you'll have time to open the position.
try it free for 3 days, no card:
i set myself a challenge: find out how long it takes to turn $1,000 into $5,000 with sports arbitrage.
should i post progress updates?
and if yes, with video of the process?
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i broke down sports arbitrage.
i make $200-500 a day doing this.
lots of platforms out there: prediction markets and sportsbooks.
point1: each one has hundreds of matches.
point2: every match has several outcomes.
point3: the odds aren't synced.
the basic principle:
first figure out how odds work. say you put $100 on an outcome at 1.95 odds. you get $195 back.
everyone sees that part.
but there's a probability hidden in it - the chance the platform gives that outcome.
the formula:
chance = 1/odds
so at 1.95 odds the sportsbook gives that outcome 1/1.95 = ~51%
on prediction markets you don't need this math. the share price already is the chance the market set.
how do you find a sports arb?
take the chances (from the formula above) for every outcome of the match and add them up.
over 100%: no arb, that's the platform's margin
under 100%: there's an arb, the gap is your profit
example:
bertimon to win on duel at 3.30 -> 1/3.30 = 30%
kshitij to win on Polymarket at 61c, 62% with fees
30% + 62% = 92%
that's under 100%
so you make 8% ROI in either outcome.
sports markets have a lot of liquidity.
right now it's the truest edge in arb, and anyone can do it.
i built a scanner that does all the math for you.
try it, 3 days free
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every 3 minutes a new arbitrage trade at +5% pops up. i built a product that catches them.
i make $200-500 a day off it since Polymarket blew up. depends on my hours and whether it's live or pre-match.
my project is spreadmap.
you open the site and see the trades in a list.
the scanner does all the dirty work: finds the gap, sizes the positions, cuts the fees, shows ROI and PnL.
before your first trade, open filters and set:
> total stake $250
> executable size: 100
> markets: pre-match
> hide 50-51¢
you'll have time to open the position.
try it free for 3 days, no card:
i set myself a challenge: find out how long it takes to turn $1,000 into $5,000 with sports arbitrage.
should i post progress updates?
and if yes, with video of the process?
Show more
still printing
LP farming on Polymarket for small accounts
this one brings me $1500 a month
the first order in it cost $45
you do it by hand, with regular limit orders, in a minute of your time.
the first payout lands the same night.
how it works:
1 - you find a market where one side sits above 95 cents and the other under 5.
every market like that has a band around the midpoint - usually a couple of cents each way. an order inside the band counts toward rewards, an order past the edge is useless.
the numbers are different on every market, so look them up before you start farming LP rewards.
2 - you buy the cheap side with a limit order. say 1000 shares at 4.5 cents - that's $45.
the shares you just bought go straight back up for sale, a little above the midpoint.
that's your first leg.
3 - you put a bid a little under the midpoint.
that's your second leg.
if you have $45 of shares sitting on the sell side and nothing on the buy side, the smaller of the two is zero. and the entire day scores as zero, never mind that a $45 limit order was there. those are Polymarket's rules, and that's why one leg alone gets you nowhere here.
4 - once a day you check where the midpoint moved and drag both legs after it.
the midpoint drifts on its own. an order left near the edge of the band still sits in the book but earns pennies - at half the allowed distance it counts for a quarter.
a market with a live pool pays around $3.5 a day for every $100 you have working.
on $1400 of working capital that's about $49 a day in rewards.
almost 50% of cheap markets pay nothing at all - their daily pool is under a dollar.
pick your markets by pool size. on a random cheap market you most often get nothing.
give this post to your grok bot - let it walk you through the steps for your own bankroll.
after that it's picking a market with a live pool and putting up two legs.
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a private Polymarket hedge fund pays all of its employees $700 a month. seven positions on the payroll.
that's a hundred bucks per employee, and none of them ever take a day off.
the fund pulls 6 figs a year off them!
the founder reached out to me himself after one of my recent posts, wanted to trade notes on quant research. somewhere in the conversation he sent me his whole lineup:
> one finds liquid markets
> two runs the full history on them
> three goes through the order book
> four builds the risk profile
> five builds the strategy
> six keeps everything running
> seven raises the money
he runs a few strategies at once and the mix changes every month. liquidity moves and the whole staff moves with it.
quant copytrading, LP, market making, weather botting, arbing sportsbook lines
he keeps calling them employees and he's not joking about it - each one has its own job, its own access to the system and its own internet.
six of the seven are ai agents.
the seventh is him.
if you're paying for even one AI agent, you already own 2/7 of your own hedge fund
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save these two free services.
they are what i built my Polymarket strategies on, the ones paying me around $10,000 a month.
what it looks like day to day: you ask any question about the market in plain words, Claude Code digs through the data and comes back with numbers.
you become a quant researcher.
1 - poly_data
one command and every Polymarket trade sits on your own disk. who bought, when, at what price, what size, and who was standing on the other side of it. my first sync pulled 3.1 million markets.
you can pull apart the edge of any trader on Polymarket you like.
first sync runs a few hours, leave it overnight, after that updates land in seconds.
2 - pendulumflow archive
this one holds the book itself: what orders were sitting there, at what prices, what size, second by second, on every single market.
288 billion events recorded, and 2.3 billion more coming in every day.
i used to pay $200 a month for this kind of data. here you just open it and take it, nothing to sign up for.
the front page has ready made questions you copy straight into Claude Code.
the project runs on donations, storing and serving this much data costs real money every month.
so if you start using it, send the guy something, he is carrying all of it alone.
these two will give you what only a handful of people on this market have.
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this bot made me $120 in a day.
it farms liquidity rewards on Polymarket. you run it from telegram, there's a web panel too.
456 stars on github.
how it works:
every two seconds it checks the order book and moves your order to the back of the line, second from the edge.
why?
if price ticks toward you, the guys in front of you get filled and your order stays untouched.
how to set it up:
clone the repo, install the dependencies, put the private key of a fresh Polymarket account with a small amount for testing into .env.
run run_passive_bot.py.
place your orders on the site like you normally do. the bot picks up everything sitting under your key and walks it to second-to-last in line.
what else it does:
pings you on telegram when an order fills or gets pulled. answers /status, /orders and /pnl right in the chat, and per-order rules are set there too.
if there are only one or two other orders next to yours in the book, it pulls yours. nobody's covering your back, so the next move in price would fill you.
repo:
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LP farming on Polymarket for small accounts
this one brings me $1500 a month
the first order in it cost $45
you do it by hand, with regular limit orders, in a minute of your time.
the first payout lands the same night.
how it works:
1 - you find a market where one side sits above 95 cents and the other under 5.
every market like that has a band around the midpoint - usually a couple of cents each way. an order inside the band counts toward rewards, an order past the edge is useless.
the numbers are different on every market, so look them up before you start farming LP rewards.
2 - you buy the cheap side with a limit order. say 1000 shares at 4.5 cents - that's $45.
the shares you just bought go straight back up for sale, a little above the midpoint.
that's your first leg.
3 - you put a bid a little under the midpoint.
that's your second leg.
if you have $45 of shares sitting on the sell side and nothing on the buy side, the smaller of the two is zero. and the entire day scores as zero, never mind that a $45 limit order was there. those are Polymarket's rules, and that's why one leg alone gets you nowhere here.
4 - once a day you check where the midpoint moved and drag both legs after it.
the midpoint drifts on its own. an order left near the edge of the band still sits in the book but earns pennies - at half the allowed distance it counts for a quarter.
a market with a live pool pays around $3.5 a day for every $100 you have working.
on $1400 of working capital that's about $49 a day in rewards.
almost 50% of cheap markets pay nothing at all - their daily pool is under a dollar.
pick your markets by pool size. on a random cheap market you most often get nothing.
give this post to your grok bot - let it walk you through the steps for your own bankroll.
after that it's picking a market with a live pool and putting up two legs.
Show more
