The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028. She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.” Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas. Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview. Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post. Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.

Comprehensive list of hedge funds blowing up this week, getting large redemptions, or shutting down PMs: - Axebrook - Walleye - Engineers Gate - Lone Pine - Millennium internal pods - Verition pods - Samlyn Letter from Walleye closing internal funds below

Texas froze new data center grid hookups back in august. and tuesday's surprise midterm result likely makes that freeze last longer. ERCOT runs the texas grid, and big power users wait in its queue to get connected. that queue is ~474GW (of which ~90% data centers) today ERCOT paused new data center hookups and delayed its first big study batch during an audit due dec 10. governor-elect hinojosa (takes office jan 19) has promised a ban on all data center approvals until lawmakers pass new rules. so it's quite likely that most new texas projects in 2028 get delayed, with some demand moving to other states. most exposed - these are some big Texas sites waiting for approval: - $IREN has a 2GW Sweetwater hub, with 300MW targeted for Q4 2027. - Cipher: a 1GW site, Colchis, targeted for 2028, plus several more sites still under study (SEC deck) - Hut 8 and CleanSpark: a 1GW site, Beacon Point, plus Sealy and Brazoria

Research|AIDC: Texas Permitting Risks Rise After Midterm Elections; 2027 Delivery Forecast Unchanged In the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. Texas was the biggest surprise: Talarico won the U.S. Senate seat, becoming the first Democrat to win the seat since 1988. Hinojosa defeated Abbott, who was seeking a fourth term, while several statewide offices, including lieutenant governor, attorney general and comptroller, also changed hands. Republicans are still expected to control the Texas Senate. The final composition of the Texas House and the comptroller race should be updated before publication based on the certified vote count. Data centers were one of the central issues in the election. Hinojosa pledged to impose a moratorium on new data centers until the legislature establishes safeguards; require projects to demonstrate that they will not raise residential electricity or water bills; prohibit developers from signing NDAs with local governments; and eliminate the sales tax exemption for data centers (6.25%, for up to 20 years, with an estimated two-year fiscal cost of approximately $3.2bn). The freeze was already underway. On August 3, Abbott halted the ERCOT large-load queue (approximately 474GW of applications, around 90% of which were data centers, or more than five times Texas’ historical peak load) and ordered a project-by-project review. ERCOT subsequently delayed Batch Zero in its new interconnection process. On September 21, Abbott also directed TCEQ not to issue any data-center-related permits until the ERCOT and TWDB audits are complete, with all state agencies suspending related approvals. The ERCOT audit is expected in early December, but its completion will not automatically restart permitting. Before the election, the market broadly expected Abbott to win re-election and was focused on when the freeze would be lifted after the audits were completed. Hinojosa’s victory could mean a longer freeze and tighter conditions for reopening the permitting process. However, she said during the campaign that she was not opposed to data centers. Her proposals focused mainly on protecting household utility bills and giving communities a say in site selection. The main impact of the election, therefore, is likely to be on how long the freeze remains in place and the conditions under which permitting resumes. Under our base case, we are temporarily maintaining our 2027 delivery forecast. Supporting that view will require a closer review of project permitting status: how much capacity has obtained key permits, how much Texas capacity remains subject to approval, and how much delay is already reflected in the original model. If the freeze lasts longer than assumed in the base case, or the probability of the downside scenario increases, expected deliveries could also be revised lower. New projects in Texas face greater exposure in 2028: most are likely to be delayed, while some demand may shift to other states. Detailed Report

MediaTek Hires Former $INTC Executive Navid Shahriari to Deepen TSMC Ties and Advance AI Chips My read is that MediaTek ($2454.TW) wants a firmer grip on packaging yields and delivery schedules. That could put more pressure on $INTC to deliver in volume. Navid Shahriari’s new responsibilities cover yields, advanced packaging, testing and reliability. If he gets involved in EMIB-T, MediaTek would have someone on its side who knows Intel’s packaging operations from the inside. He would be better placed to pinpoint whether problems lie in substrates, assembly or design integration, and push for a firm timeline to validate the fixes.

这么短视干嘛？ 我确实没懂这群散户的思路 我看空半导体也已经三个月了，9月份反弹你们不也嘲笑过我 熊市现在还没结束，甚至才刚开始，然而AEHR已经膝盖斩了， 财报后死猫跳一下又如何？不就是Short Squeeze么 要不要等到年底再来看？ 我怕等$40的时候， 你这账号都没了。。。

告诉大家一个不幸的消息 Jin老师看好甚至“重仓”的AEHR今天盘后发财报 别的我不敢说 根据几何性质，美股几何学 上周死猫跳结束后，应该是要崩掉的 也就回到$40吧 让我们拭目以待！ 7月底，资金就已经全部跑完了 我不相信身为GS大庄家的的Herman老师 看不到这么一个基本，简单的事实

$AEHR 昨天发布财报！ 营收同比暴增200%，利润大翻身！👍 这轮增长能持续多久？下一笔改变公司规模的大订单，又会来自谁？ 这次换几个角度，从财务表现到公司经营策略，聊聊AEHR未来的增长潜力与风险。 感兴趣的朋友可以看看我们的完整分析，已放在Substack，免费阅读，链接在下面。👇

TrendForce 最新供应链交期更新！ 对比9月14日与10月19日的数据，发现两个变化： 🔺 GPU：20–30周 → 30–40周（+10周） 🔺 MLCC：30周 → 35周（+5周） 其他几个关键环节的交期没变： • DRAM：20周 • NAND/eSSD：16周 • HDD：50周 • ABF载板：48–56周 另外，本期新增了CPU数据：25–30周，正常交期为16–20周。 GPU交期虽然延长了10周，但TrendForce仍将其列为供需平衡，因为正常交期也同步上移。 MLCC则不同，正常交期仍为12周，现在已经拉长到35周。不过高端AI服务器用MLCC与消费电子用MLCC的需求明显分化。 还有一个信号：大型云厂商即使已经签订2028年的HDD长期协议，仍预计届时供应不足。 从供应链运营的角度看，交期拉长不只是缺货问题。 如果企业需要更早下单、提前备料，整个供应链的资金占用周期也会被拉长，库存周转天数和现金转换周期都可能增加，资金周转效率随之下降。 订单决定企业能走多远，现金流决定企业能活多久！ 在供应链周期不断拉长的环境下，谁能更快地把订单转化为现金流，谁才能真正活下来，并赢得下一轮增长。 订单是增长的希望，现金流是生存的底气！

昨天聊了 $MRVL 拟收购 $LITE ，今天再聊聊这笔交易有利有弊的地方。 先说好处： DSP＋硅光＋激光器整合在一起，研发和技术协同会更方便，也有机会掌握关键InP激光器产能，对 $NVDA 的AI光互连供应链也是潜在利好。 再说风险，尤其是客户流失的问题： Marvell原本是卖DSP芯片的，客户包括不同的光模块厂商。 这些厂商买Marvell的DSP，再搭配自己的光器件，做成光模块卖给云厂商。 问题来了，Lumentum自己也做光模块，跟Marvell的部分DSP客户是竞争关系。 如果Marvell把Lumentum买下来，就等于这些客户以后买DSP，可能是在给自己的竞争对手贡献利润。😂 更重要的是，客户可能会担心： 自己的产品规划、采购量、技术需求，会不会被竞争对手间接掌握？ 未来DSP产能紧张时，Marvell会不会优先照顾自家的Lumentum？ 所以，即使Marvell的DSP技术很好，部分客户也可能为了降低风险，逐步转向 $AVGO、$CRDO 等其他供应商。 这不代表客户一定会流失，毕竟更换DSP也需要重新设计、测试和认证，不是说换就能换。 从供应链角度看，纵向整合确实能增强竞争力，但也可能破坏原来的客户关系。 技术整合能带来多少新生意？又可能丢掉多少老客户？所以还需要多掂量一下。 NFA / DYOR

1. 我不相信Ant现在可以撼动任何Fabless 2. 我不怀疑未来Labs在诸多高价值场景上都会遍地开花 3. 芯片上再怎么设计也逃不掉Fab；医疗上再怎么筛DNA也躲不了药检

MediaTek: $INTC Packaging Yield Issue Identified, Rapid Improvement Expected Once Resolved MediaTek reaffirmed its Q1 2028 mass-production target for its second-generation data-center AI ASIC, which uses Intel’s EMIB-T packaging. CEO Rick Tsai said the team has identified key packaging yield issues and is working with Intel and substrate suppliers to implement fixes. He expects yields to improve rapidly once those fixes are in place. This is an encouraging sign for Intel: MediaTek continues to commit engineering resources to the EMIB-T program while maintaining its production schedule. The next milestone is demonstrating that the improvements hold across production lots as volumes increase. A successful ramp would help MediaTek meet customer demand and give Intel a concrete example of EMIB-T delivering at scale, strengthening its case with other potential AI-chip customers. H/T:@rainyang721

Taiwanese media: Intel’s EMIB has an overall yield of approximately 60–65%, but the process of embedding silicon bridge dies into ABF substrates has a yield of only around 25–30%. This is significantly below TSMC’s CoWoS yield of roughly 98%.