Weekly|Singapore Gathering, Malaga ECOC Happy Hour, AI Labs Keep Training, Optics Supply Tightens, AIDC Power, CRM Dreamforce, PLTR Sovereign AI, BE
First, thank you to everyone who joined our gathering in Singapore this week. Registration and attendance were well beyond our expectations, and the atmosphere was amazing. Members of both our analyst and developer teams were present and had great conversations with investors and industry experts. Next, our analyst Fabian will attend ECOC in Malaga, Spain on Sep 22-23 and will host a happy hour there. Please RSVP if you are interested.
Coming back to the market, the AI hardware selloff after Amodei’s call for restraint looked overdone to us, and the subsequent rebound suggests investors are reconsidering what a slowdown would actually mean. We spoke with people at three frontier labs: internal training and compute expansion are continuing, while additional safety checks are more likely to lengthen evaluation and public-release timelines. Safety risks deserve attention, but our base case remains limited disruption to near-term infrastructure demand.
The enterprise side helps explain that view. In our 41-company Tokenomics panel, less than 5% of AI spending goes to the most advanced frontier models. Existing deployments can keep expanding as models become cheaper, more reliable, and easier to integrate. Greater scrutiny also creates work for security platforms and identity providers: enterprises need to monitor agents in production, govern what they can access, and retain logs they can trust.
Drug discovery gives us another reason to be constructive on AI demand beyond the current enterprise rollout. The Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference commentary points to early spending across the workflow: TMO is already seeing AI-driven high-throughput experiments lift reagent consumption, CRL expects more shots on goal to support preclinical demand, and DHR is seeing early lab-automation adoption. SDGR says pharma AI budgets are increasingly incremental, with BMS an early proof point. Morgan Stanley’s healthcare specialist Dan Bone also highlighted Novo Nordisk’s use of Claude Science for drug-discovery challenges, GenScript’s completion of Lilly’s TuneLab validation loop for wet-lab services, and $290mn of financing for Anew Labs, which spun out of ByteDance’s internal drug-discovery team in June. The rally in names such as TWST shows investors are taking notice. For us, the demand case is that more AI-generated candidates can support repeated rounds of modeling, screening and physical validation, expanding compute use alongside laboratory spending. It is early to size that compute opportunity, but the evidence of incremental budgets and reagent consumption makes drug discovery a credible additional source of AI demand.
Physical delivery remains the harder constraint across the infrastructure names we cover. CIOE orders and production schedules extend into 2027, but 3nm DSPs, lasers, and PCBs determine which optics vendors can ship. On power, our follow-up channel work supports 2.4–3.0MW of turbine nameplate per MW of IT for the off-grid designs we examined; that ratio doesn’t apply to the entire turbine market. Oracle’s results reinforce the value of earlier energization for Bloom, with permitting, manufacturing, and service capacity still the key checks.
This Week’s Reports
AI labs keep training despite the pacing debate. Our interviews point to longer evaluation and release timelines with limited near-term disruption to training investment or enterprise inference demand.
Optics: orders extend into 2027, and access to supply determines who delivers. Our conference and CIOE notes track higher laser pricing, tight 3nm DSP capacity and the NPO/CPO ramp, with leading vendors best placed to turn strong demand into shipments.
AIDC: nameplate capacity needs to be translated into dependable IT power. We answer six investor questions with new channel checks and a rebuilt off-grid sizing framework, separating redundancy, site derating and project readiness from headline turbine supply.
Cybersecurity: AI safety concerns strengthen the case for platform and identity security. Our note maps the gaps exposed by agent incidents to runtime monitoring, non-human identity governance, isolation, vulnerability management and tamper-resistant logs.
Premium Report Snapshot
A portion of our research is reserved for Premium subscribers and is not distributed via Substack. Below is a snapshot of what Premium subscribers received this week beyond the Substack feed.
Research | CRM: Dreamforce Clarifies Claudeforce Monetization as Salesforce Cedes the UI
Deep | PLTR: Sovereign AI Expands the Opportunity; Partner Delivery Sets the Long-Term Ceiling
Research & Roadshow | BE: Oracle Reinforces the Time-to-Power Thesis; Delivery Remains the Test
Weekly Expert Interviews Summary
A snapshot of the expert interviews we conducted during the past week is below; full transcripts and takeaways are available on the FUNDA platform.
Meta: Muse Monetization and Advertising Share (META, GOOGL)
Enterprise AI: Token Budgets and Model Routing (GOOGL)
Microsoft: Internal AI Spend and Usage Mix (MSFT)
RoboSoft: Workflow Automation and AI Spend Growth
LendingClub: Production AI and Model Routing (LC, AMZN)
Delta: Vertical Power Supply Bottlenecks and 800V Architecture (FLEX, GOOGL, MPWR, META)
Vicor: Vertical Power Economics at Very High Current (VICR, NVDA)
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Weekly|SNOW Data Flywheel & CoCo, Optics Scale-In, BE Delivery Debate, Enterprise AI Vol.2, CRDO/MDB/PANW
The software vs semi split that defined last week finally started to rebalance. Software that printed what the channel had been pointing to kept working through most of the week, while the semi tape spent the first half getting tagged by rates — the 10-year pushed to 4.8% on Tuesday, the highest since January 2025, after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole turn had traders pricing hikes rather than cuts. By Friday the setup flipped: semis clearly outperformed, and memory names broke out. Near-term software short cover looks largely done, the outperformance looks stretched, and the momentum unwind in semis has already gone to an extreme — which leaves less of that particular overhang in the names that got hit hardest.
On the software prints, SNOW was the cleanest expression of the channel read. We went into the print cautious on 2Q because of tough comps and more constructive on 3Q, and the flywheel was stronger than even that. Product revenue grew 37% year over year, a 5.2% beat that matched last quarter, and the full-year product-revenue guide jumped from 31% to 36%, one of the largest annual raises in the company’s history. CoCo is no longer a product call. Accounts passed 9,100 with more than 2,000 net adds in the quarter, CoWork is at 5,800, and customers are consolidating transactional data onto the platform. Our preview had CoCo adding about two points this quarter; the print confirmed the direction and then some. The data flywheel is what we think the multiple should be underwriting, not a single SKU.
Optics is the other narrative that actually moved, and it moved inward. Scale-in, as Lumentum’s CEO put it, is the thing to watch over the next 12 to 18 months: optical links inside the tray, targeting memory-class bandwidth, roughly 10x scale-up per GPU. NVIDIA has already written $2bn checks into Lumentum and Coherent; Marvell’s Celestial AI deal and the Google warrant, which discloses memory interface controllers and near-memory compute, are the capital trail. CRDO’s print sits in the same stack from the other end: a record quarter, Q2 guide above the Street, optics still a 2H ramp.
On power, the AIDC demand debate is over. Bloom’s multiple has already reset from about 85x to 42x forward EV/EBITDA after the July shorts, and the stock has not re-rated on the 2Q beat-and-raise. We think the question is now whether Bloom can convert booked slots into shippable MW. We model about 2.7GW of year-end 2027 manufacturing capacity and 2.2GW of 2027 deliveries against 2.0GW consensus. Scandium looks manageable; service capacity is the overlooked constraint. Enterprise AI is splitting the same way the tape is: Vol.2 went out on Substack this week, spend is still growing, and the samples have diverged. Production-tied use cases keep adding; per-head allowances are getting cut. The increment is in APIs and production workflows, and ROI only converts into a budget when hours saved cross a threshold large enough to reallocate a person, about 30%, which is why some CFOs are already holding the total IT envelope flat.
This Week’s Reports
Optics — scale-in puts optical links inside the tray, and the bandwidth it targets is roughly 10x scale-up per GPU. Lumentum’s CEO called it the thing to watch over the next 12 to 18 months; NVIDIA’s $2bn checks into Lumentum and Coherent, and Marvell’s Google warrant covering memory interface controllers, are the capital already moving.
Preview & Review | SNOW FY27Q2: Beyond a Single Product, a Data Flywheel That Merits a Longer Horizon. Product revenue grew 37% YoY and beat sell-side by 5.2%, with the full-year product-revenue guide raised from 31% to 36%. Our preview had CoCo still very strong and called 35% growth, a 4-point beat versus guidance; the print confirmed the CoCo-to-flywheel read, with CoCo accounts above 9,100 and CoWork at 5,800.
Bloom — the AIDC demand debate is over; delivery execution is the rerating variable. Production slots look booked through 2028, we model about 2.7GW of YE27 manufacturing capacity and 2.2GW of 2027 deliveries against 2.0GW consensus, and forward EV/EBITDA has already reset from about 85x to 42x after the July shorts.
Enterprise AI Vol.2 — spend is still growing, but the increment is in production workflows and ROI is gated by hours saved. A second set of seven enterprises independently corroborated Vol.1: seats are maturing, APIs and production workflows take the increment, and scattered 5-10% time savings do not cut cost until effort on a class of work falls by about 30%.
Premium Report Snapshot
Below is a snapshot of what Premium subscribers received this week beyond the Substack feed.
Review | CRDO FY27Q1: Record Quarterly Revenue, Q2 Guide Above Street; Optics Ramp 2H
Review | PANW FY26Q4: Organic Growth Modest Re-Accel, but vs Raised Buy-Side Bar Not a Clean Beat
Deep | Delta Electronics ( 2H26 Re-Acceleration; VPD Overlooked
Weekly Expert Interviews Summary
A snapshot of the expert interviews we conducted during the past week is below; full transcripts and takeaways are available on the FUNDA platform.
MongoDB — AI Production Scaling and Agentic Usage Growth (MDB, SNOW, GOOGL)
Marvell — DSP Competitiveness and Optical-Engine Scale Bottlenecks (MRVL, AVGO, NVDA, SMTC)
NVIDIA — Co-Packaged Optics Ramp and Supply Bottlenecks (NVDA, LITE, TSM)
AWS — Track-Optimized Networking and Active Cables (AMZN, CRDO, NVDA)
AI Data Centers — Gas Turbine Supply Constraints and Service Economics
Palo Alto — Platform Consolidation and Growth Acceleration (PANW, CYBR)
Zurich Insurance — Enterprise AI Spend and Adoption Economics (MSFT, GOOGL)
Top Logistic Firm — Governance-Driven AI Spend Expansion (MSFT)
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Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE.
Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3.
Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others)
Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders...
AI DC buildout read through is just enormous.
Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter.
Photonics players just keeps printing.
TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
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