🧠 Hot Chips 2026: AI's Memory Wall Is Becoming a Money and Packaging Wall Hot Chips 2026 is still producing the usual charts of larger chips and higher peak compute. But this year, memory vendors are becoming central to the AI hardware story. The reason is simple: adding more arithmetic is getting easier. Keeping those units fed is not. Zhihu contributor 乱序摸鱼 reviewed the conference's memory talks and traced a larger shift across Samsung, Micron, SK hynix, and emerging architectures such as HBF. His main takeaway: the boundary between compute and memory is starting to dissolve. 1️⃣ The Memory Wall has become a Money Wall AI is not merely consuming more memory. It is pushing the DRAM industry toward a far more silicon-intensive product. For the same capacity, HBM requires roughly 3× the DRAM die area of DDR. A wafer redirected to HBM can therefore deliver fewer total bits, even before packaging and yield are considered. At the same time, new DRAM capacity can take more than two years to become productive. AI accelerator demand changes much faster. The article cites a revealing mismatch: AI compute can grow around 3× every two years, while HBM bandwidth grows by less than 2× over the same period. HBM solves the bandwidth problem through massive parallelism: wider interfaces, more channels, more banks, TSVs, and advanced packaging. But the bandwidth is not free. Its cost appears elsewhere as silicon area, power, packaging complexity, and yield risk. 2️⃣ The HBM base die is turning into a SoC Traditional HBM had a clean division of labor. The upper DRAM dies stored data, while the base die handled interfaces, testing, and basic routing. HBM4 changes the economics. Once the base die moves to an advanced logic process, using it as an expensive wiring layer becomes increasingly difficult to justify. Samsung's roadmap therefore expands its role in stages. The shorter-distance PHY comes first. Then the memory controller moves down from the xPU, followed by telemetry, repair, testing, RAS, and potentially lightweight processing. This turns HBM from a passive device into something that understands its own banks, temperature, failure state, and access scheduling. But integration creates new tradeoffs. A shorter interface may reduce energy per bit while concentrating the same throughput into a smaller area, raising local power density and creating thermal hotspots. The base die is becoming smarter, but every new function brings more RTL, validation, thermal design, and software work. 3️⃣ Near-memory compute should be measured in bits avoided Putting compute near memory sounds attractive, but available silicon is not enough to justify doing it. The more useful question is: How much data movement disappears after this operator moves closer to memory? Filtering, compression, copying, search, and simple reductions can make sense near memory. They may scan a large dataset and return only a small result, eliminating enormous amounts of traffic. Dense matrix multiplication is different. Data moved into a GPU may be reused many times by Tensor Cores. Moving that computation into a constrained base die could create a weaker accelerator while adding a new compiler and runtime target. The author's rule is practical: move operations that significantly reduce data volume, not operations that merely fit into spare logic area. Samsung's zHBM takes this idea further by vertically stacking HBM above the xPU. The modeled design removes much of the millimeter-scale horizontal path between memory and compute. Samsung's public targets suggest around 70% lower I/O power and roughly 100 W saved in a modeled 1,200 W GPU system. Those are architectural targets rather than proven production results. The shorter electrical path also introduces harder problems in bonding yield, thermal design, power delivery, repair, and cross-die ownership. 4️⃣ HBF could add a cold tier, but software must make it work High Bandwidth Flash proposes another route: use stacked NAND to provide much more capacity at a lower cost than HBM. The tradeoff is severe. HBF may offer cheap capacity, but its bandwidth per gigabyte is roughly an order of magnitude lower. That makes it unsuitable as a drop-in replacement for HBM. Its strongest use cases are large datasets with consistently low access rates: 🔹 Cold MoE experts 🔹 Sparse KV cache 🔹 Prefix cache 🔹 Model state that must remain nearby but is not read every token Even MoE is not automatically a good fit. A single token activates few experts, but a larger batch combines expert requests from many users. The supposedly cold expert pool can become hot surprisingly quickly. The harder problem is system software. An HBM-HBF hierarchy needs placement, allocation, prefetching, request coalescing, cache policy, wear management, and runtime telemetry. The article's verdict is cautious: the architectural need is real, but HBF's path from an attractive model to a dependable product remains largely unproven. 5️⃣ HBM scaling is becoming a packaging problem SK hynix's presentation shows why adding more DRAM layers is no longer a simple capacity upgrade. Moving from 12Hi to 16Hi increases the number of layers by 33%, while the package height rises from roughly 720 μm to 775 μm, an increase of less than 8%. The remaining option is to compress everything. Dies become thinner, inter-die gaps narrower, and bump pitches denser. Warpage, underfill, thermal resistance, and bonding yield all become harder to control. Yield is also cumulative. A defect introduced early may only appear after many expensive processing and stacking steps have already been completed. For 20Hi and beyond, hybrid bonding becomes less of a futuristic option and more of a practical necessity. By removing conventional bumps and thick underfill gaps, hybrid bonding can reduce interconnect pitch and thermal resistance. It can also return part of the height budget to the DRAM itself. SK hynix estimates that, within the same overall stack height, core dies could be up to 24% thicker than with MR-MUF while using an interconnect pitch below 18 μm. That extra silicon thickness matters for mechanical strength, wafer handling, warpage, and manufacturability. 6️⃣ The real boundary being redesigned The most important Hot Chips 2026 memory story is not another increase in TB/s. It is the rising cost of the physical distance between data and compute. As arithmetic moves from FP16 to FP8 and FP4, chips can contain more MAC units than the system can consistently feed. Performance is increasingly lost to memory access, synchronization, interconnect power, thermal limits, and data placement. The optimization target is therefore expanding from one chip to the entire task path. HBM base dies are becoming logic devices. Memory controllers are moving closer to DRAM. Flash may become another managed AI memory tier. Compute and memory may eventually be vertically integrated. None of this eliminates complexity. It decides where that complexity should live so the whole system becomes more efficient. The author's final insight is a good one: Sometimes the best architecture does not make the road faster. It discovers that the trip never needed to happen. 🔗 Full analysis: #HotChips2026# #HBM# #AIInfrastructure# #Semiconductors# #MemorySystems# #AdvancedPackaging# #AIHardware#

AI CONFERENCES AND INVESTOR DAYS, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2026 YESTERDAY: INVESTOR DAY TAKEAWAYS HON HAI PRECISION INDUSTRY CO INVESTOR DAY Fri Oct 30, Taipei, Taiwan Hon Hai Technology Day (HHTD26), October 30 to 31, 2026, Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center Hall 1. October 30 was the invitation-only opening day; October 31 is open to the public. Replay: • Outlook: Chairman Young Liu expects double-digit revenue growth next year, driven by AI data center demand, and said the industry is not in an AI bubble • AI server share: Liu said the global AI server share, now about 40%, could reach about 45% next year and 50% within a couple of years, with production capacity fully booked for at least the next year and a half and AI infrastructure reaching 60% to 65% of revenue in three to five years • OpenAI: Liu told reporters he had met OpenAI CEO Sam Altman earlier in the day and a new collaboration is in the works, with an announcement once details are confirmed and no scope or terms disclosed. It would build on last year's agreement to co-design data center racks, components and other AI hardware • Token factory: the 7th annual Tech Day ran a record 321 exhibits, about a quarter of them in the Token Factory zone, with a first showcase of the NVIDIA DSX POD, a standardized factory-built reference design to preintegrate NVIDIA Vera Rubin rack-scale AI infrastructure in modular containers, plus co-packaged optics and NVIDIA 800 VDC power distribution • Houston and robots: Foxconn has six factory buildings in Houston, Texas making AI servers for NVIDIA and sees a need for further expansion. Foxconn Industrial Internet said more than 10 humanoid robots have been deployed at its Texas facilities for internal use, with deployment to extend beyond Texas • EVs: three new reference electric vehicles, the MODEL A+ and MODEL K+ SUVs and the MODEL K kei-class compact truck, took the reference range to 12 models, offered to automotive customers through contract design and manufacturing services • Spending: Liu said planned AI spending of $3B to $5B a year could rise with deeper vertical integration, and that overinvestment will kill the company • Stock reaction: shares closed down 1.0% at TWD 245.5 on October 30, from TWD 248.0 the prior close. Next catalyst is third-quarter results on November 12 TODAY No tracked events today. TOMORROW No tracked events tomorrow. REMAINING THIS WEEK No tracked events remaining this week. LATER • Tue Nov 3: PIC Summit Europe 2026, Eindhoven, Netherlands, Nov 3 to 4 • Tue Nov 3: DCD Connect Virginia, Leesburg, VA, Nov 3 to 4 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Connect Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Investment Forum Brasil, Sao Paulo • Wed Nov 4: Xcelerated Compute Show Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Thu Nov 5: Box Investor Day, San Francisco • Fri Nov 6: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Japan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Tokyo • Sun Nov 8: IEEE Photonics Conference (IPC) 2026, Denver, Nov 8 to 12 • Mon Nov 9: Entegris Investor Day, 1:00 PM • Tue Nov 10: Cohu Investor Day, New York • Tue Nov 10: Flex Investor Day, Austin • Tue Nov 10: WESCO International Investor Day, Data Center Deep Dive Day, 10:00 AM • Wed Nov 11: Munters Group Capital Markets Day, Stockholm, 8:00 AM • Thu Nov 12: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Taiwan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Hsin-chu • Sun Nov 15: Penguin Solutions at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Sun Nov 15: Supercomputing Conference 2026 (SC26), Chicago, Nov 15 to 20 • Sun Nov 15: Vertiv at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Tue Nov 17: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 China OIP Ecosystem Forum, Beijing • Tue Nov 17: TomorrowX Summit 2026, Austin, Nov 17 to 18 • Tue Nov 17: XTI Aerospace at 2026 ElevateUAV Summit, Florida City • Thu Nov 19: KVH Industries at CSN Greece ICT Conference, Athens • Tue Nov 24: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Europe OIP Ecosystem Forum, Munich • Mon Nov 30: NVIDIA GTC Washington DC, Nov 30 to Dec 3 • Thu Dec 17: Methode Electronics Investor Day, New York, 8:30 AM • Thu Dec 17: Onto Innovation Capital Markets Day, New York, 9:00 AM

AI hardware is becoming such a valuable target that criminals are now stealing entire shipments of GPUs and servers before they even reach data centers. Since June, more than $100 million worth of data-center equipment has been stolen. The thieves are using some pretty sophisticated methods: -Hacking freight accounts and pretending to be legitimate trucking companies. -Using fake identities and paperwork to take control of shipments. -Spoofing GPS signals to hide where the cargo is actually going. -Even using hit-and-runs against security vehicles to steal shipments. In one case, thieves stole around $13 million worth of servers after deliberately crashing into the vehicle escorting the shipment. 92% of the high-value tech thefts studied by cargo-security company Overhaul involved deception rather than brute force.

AI CONFERENCES AND INVESTOR DAYS, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2026 TODAY DCD INVESTMENT FORUM MENA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION Tue Oct 27, Dubai, United Arab Emirates DCD Investment Forum MENA (DatacenterDynamics), October 27, 2026, Grand Hyatt Dubai, Dubai. Co-located with DCD Connect MENA. Part of the DCD Investment series. No public webcast. In-person event. Registration: • Setup: A one-day executive forum with 35+ speakers, convening C-suite operators, developers, lenders and investors active in MENA digital infrastructure deal flow. This is the capital side of the MENA buildout, as sovereign AI programs turn announced gigawatts into financed projects • The number: 2,500+ senior professionals expected across the co-located events, against a regional pipeline of 2.6 GW in development and 13.8 GW planned on roughly 1.6 GW live • Why it matters: Who finances the Middle East pipeline, and on what terms, decides how much of it gets built • Debates: Sovereign capital versus international project finance, power and grid access as the gating item, and phased 100 MW to 200 MW delivery versus gigawatt announcements • Watch: The opening macro panel on where MENA digital infrastructure heads next, and any named financing or partnership announcements CELESTICA INC INVESTOR DAY Tue Oct 27, 8:00 AM ET Investor and Analyst Day call, hosted by Chair and CEO Rob Mionis, with an in-person Lunch Forum following in Midtown Manhattan for institutional investors and sell-side analysts. Webcast: • Setup: Q3 results, reported after the close Monday October 26, beat the top of guidance: revenue rose 83% year over year to $5.83B against a $5.25B to $5.55B guide, adjusted EPS rose 109% to $3.30, adjusted operating margin hit a record 8.5%, and CCS revenue rose 102% to $4.87B. Management raised the full-year 2026 outlook to $21.0B of revenue and $11.55 of adjusted EPS, cut free cash flow guidance to $460M from $600M for targeted working capital investment ahead of 2027, and gave an initial 2027 outlook of $40.0B of revenue, up 90%, with a 9.0% adjusted operating margin and $21.50 of adjusted EPS on capex of $1.5B to $2.0B • The number: The $40.0B 2027 revenue target, well above the $35.7B analyst estimate reported ahead of the print, and whether the day substantiates it with contracted demand and 1.6T program detail • Why it matters: Celestica is the purest listed read on hyperscaler AI hardware demand outside the hyperscalers themselves, and the day is the first long-form test of the 2027 frame • Debates: Customer concentration, the cash cost of growth as working capital builds, and whether 9% margins hold as capacity capex rises • Watch: Q4 guidance of $6.275B to $6.575B of revenue, 2028 demand commentary (management said customer demand forecasts are meaningfully higher than the 2027 outlook), and 1.6T program updates MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL CO LTD INVESTOR DAY Tue Oct 27, 4:00 PM Taiwan time (4:00 AM ET) Third-quarter 2026 results webcast, hosted by Chairman and CEO Miin Wu and Vice President Paul Yeh, per the company investor relations calendar. Webcast via Macronix investor relations. Direct link unconfirmed. • Setup: The NOR flash maker is in a steep memory upcycle. September sales rose 188% year over year to TWD 8.37B and third-quarter revenue reached TWD 24.24B, up 27% sequentially • The number: Nine-month 2026 revenue of TWD 53.83B, up 155% year over year, already above the prior full-year record of TWD 50.57B set in 2021, with Q2 gross margin at 64.4% • Why it matters: Macronix is a clean read on legacy memory pricing power and how far the upcycle converts into durable margins • Debates: Whether pricing holds into 2027, and the return on the TWD 15.81B capacity budget approved in July, with new capacity due in 2027 • Watch: Q3 gross margin against the 64.4% Q2 mark, Q4 sales commentary, and capex timing GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE INC INVESTOR DAY Tue Oct 27, 7:30 PM ET, Las Vegas, United States Analyst Day held inside Connections 2026, October 26 to 29 at Fontainebleau Las Vegas, with more than 3,800 attendees expected. Webcast: • Setup: Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 23% to $1.48B and ARR rose 19% to $1.24B, with cloud ARR up 35% to 84% of total ARR and 62 core cloud deals signed in the year. The stock sold off on fiscal 2027 guidance in September and has been rebuilding into the day • The number: Fiscal 2027 ARR guidance of $1.45B to $1.46B, and whether the fiscal 2028 ARR figure near $1.7B is reaffirmed as a floor • Why it matters: Guidewire is the core-system standard for P&C insurers, and migration of its installed base to Guidewire Cloud is the growth engine • Debates: Roughly 125 on-premises customers still to migrate, the pace of cloud cohort expansion, and how fast agentic AI products monetize • Watch: Detail on the top 10 US carrier signed September 4 for Guidewire Cloud and PolicyCenter, set to become a top 10 customer by fully ramped ARR over a 12 to 18 month deployment, plus any multi-year target updates TOMORROW FIVE9 INC CONFERENCE PRESENTATION Wed Oct 28, Amsterdam, Netherlands ServiceNow World Forum Amsterdam, RAI Amsterdam, 8:30 AM to 6:00 PM. Free, in-person only, no digital edition and no public webcast. • Setup: Five9 and ServiceNow expanded their partnership in November 2024 around a turnkey AI solution joining ServiceNow Customer Service Management with the Five9 Intelligent CX Platform. Five9 exhibits and hosts a session, showing Five9 Fusion for ServiceNow, which puts voice and digital on one agent screen, with real-time transcription feeding Now Assist • The number: One agent screen for voice and digital inside ServiceNow, the core Fusion claim the team is demoing on the floor • Why it matters: Amsterdam is a live test of whether the ServiceNow channel converts into European contact-center pipeline for Five9 • Debates: AI agent deflection versus seat-based pricing pressure across CCaaS, and how much of the partnership is product versus go-to-market • Watch: Five9 session attendance and any named customer or expansion announcements out of the forum ORACLE CORP INVESTOR DAY Wed Oct 28, 10:55 AM CT, Las Vegas, United States Investor Day Meeting at Oracle AI World, live via the Oracle investor relations homepage. Webcast: • Setup: Q1 fiscal 2027, reported September 10, delivered revenue up 30% to $19.3B and cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.4B, and management raised the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to at least $90B • The number: Remaining performance obligations of $664B, up $209B year over year and $26B in the quarter, against quarterly capex of $28.5B and free cash flow of negative $5.4B • Why it matters: This is the first long-form chance to test how the backlog converts, with 300,000 GPUs and 850 MW delivered in Q1 and utilization near 98% • Debates: Capacity delivery pace, margins and cash flow through a $90B to $95B fiscal 2027 capex plan, and customer concentration in the AI backlog • Watch: Any update to the capex or funding plan, RPO conversion commentary, and applications growth against the infrastructure story LTD INVESTOR DAY Wed Oct 28, New York, United States Investor Day at Elevate '26, the flagship conference, October 28 to 29 at the Javits Center, with a private investor Q&A with management. The opening keynote is livestreamed free at 11:00 AM ET. Keynote livestream: • Setup: Q2 revenue rose 22% to $365M and the company reconfirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.466B to $1.474B, even as it cut roughly 20% of headcount to fund the AI pivot and the stock sold off on the print • The number: AI ARR doubled from Q1 to Q2 and drove 17% of net new ARR, against overall net dollar retention of 109% with guided pressure in the second half • Why it matters: Elevate is where the AI workspace claim meets customers, around 250,000 of them, with every attendee building a working AI agent on site, across 200+ sessions and 150+ speakers • Debates: Seat and credit pricing for AI versus seat erosion, the enterprise mix shift, and the reported exits of AI, R&D and product leaders mid-pivot • Watch: Keynote product announcements from co-CEOs Eran Zinman and Roy Mann and CPO Daniel Lereya, any AI monetization metrics beyond the 17% figure, and investor Q&A tone on fiscal 2027 growth REMAINING THIS WEEK HON HAI PRECISION INDUSTRY CO INVESTOR DAY Fri Oct 30, Taipei, Taiwan Hon Hai Technology Day (HHTD26), October 30 to 31, 2026, with live streaming on the official HHTD site. Event site: • Setup: Foxconn is repositioning from assembler to AI platform company. Q2 revenue rose 41% year over year to TWD 2.53 trillion with net profit of TWD 60.0B, September revenue rose 38% to TWD 1.16 trillion on AI server demand, and third-quarter revenue, reported October 5, rose 47% year over year to TWD 3.03 trillion, above the TWD 2.83 trillion LSEG SmartEstimate, ahead of full Q3 results on November 12 • The number: Taiwan's largest GPU cluster, due in 2026 from as the group's NVIDIA Cloud Partner AI Factory, is the centerpiece claim to test • Why it matters: HHTD is where the AI server story gets product proof: the MODEL A launch, the IBM AI Factory partnership for Taiwan, the Foxconn and OpenAI work on US AI supply-chain manufacturing, plus SiC, LEO satellites and FoxBrain • Debates: How much value Foxconn captures beyond assembly in AI servers, EV timelines, and margin conversion as cloud and networking posts high double-digit growth • Watch: Partner appearances on the opening day stage, MODEL A specifics, and any capacity or US manufacturing commitments LATER • Tue Nov 3: DCD Connect Virginia, Leesburg, VA, Nov 3 to 4 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Connect Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Wed Nov 4: DCD Investment Forum Brasil, Sao Paulo • Wed Nov 4: Xcelerated Compute Show Brasil, Sao Paulo, Nov 4 to 5 • Thu Nov 5: Box Investor Day, San Francisco • Fri Nov 6: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Japan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Tokyo • Mon Nov 9: Entegris Investor Day, 1:00 PM • Tue Nov 10: Cohu Investor Day, New York • Tue Nov 10: Flex Investor Day, Austin • Tue Nov 10: WESCO International Investor Day, Data Center Deep Dive Day, 10:00 AM • Wed Nov 11: Munters Group Capital Markets Day, Stockholm, 8:00 AM • Thu Nov 12: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Taiwan OIP Ecosystem Forum, Hsin-chu • Sun Nov 15: Penguin Solutions at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Sun Nov 15: Supercomputing Conference 2026 (SC26), Chicago, Nov 15 to 20 • Sun Nov 15: Vertiv at SuperComputing (SC26), Chicago • Tue Nov 17: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 China OIP Ecosystem Forum, Beijing • Tue Nov 17: TomorrowX Summit 2026, Austin, Nov 17 to 18 • Tue Nov 17: XTI Aerospace at 2026 ElevateUAV Summit, Florida City • Thu Nov 19: KVH Industries at CSN Greece ICT Conference, Athens • Tue Nov 24: Global Unichip at TSMC 2026 Europe OIP Ecosystem Forum, Munich • Mon Nov 30: NVIDIA GTC Washington DC, Nov 30 to Dec 3 • Thu Dec 17: Methode Electronics Investor Day, New York, 8:30 AM • Thu Dec 17: Onto Innovation Capital Markets Day, New York, 9:00 AM • Wed Dec 30: at AI Impact Summit 2026 • Wed Feb 3: AI Cities Zaragoza, Spain, Feb 3 to 4, 2027

AI hardware just got so expensive that Wall Street has to step in, with over $90 BILLION in new debt to buy chips. According to the Wall Street Journal, Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion to fund its custom AI chips for OpenAI. SpaceX is lining up $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, with Apollo expected to lead. Oracle is in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs to cover the gap between paying for chips and getting paid for cloud. I think this is a HUGE signal that demand for compute is still exploding. $AVGO $ORCL $NVDA

AI demand is becoming a key driver of China's economy: China's chip exports are up to a record ~$290 billion over the last 12 months. This figure has more than doubled over the last 3 years. At the same time, computer and component shipments are up to ~$240 billion, the highest since 2022. Power equipment exports are up to a record ~$190 billion, with the growth accelerating over the last 2 years. This brings China’s total AI-related exports up to ~$720 billion over the last 12 months, an all-time high. Western demand for China-made AI hardware is surging.

AI Hardware Demand Growth and Representative US-Listed Companies June 2026 Executive Summary Nvidia’s transition to the Vera Rubin (VR200) platform marks a significant escalation in AI infrastructure complexity and cost. Our BOM teardown of the next-generation Rubin rack reveals a ~2x increase in total rack cost to approximately $7.8 million (vs. ~$4 million for GB300), driven not solely by the GPU/CPU but by sharp revaluations across the supply chain. Key highlights from downstream components include: • PCB content value +233% YoY, the largest increase. • MLCC +182%, reflecting higher density and count (e.g., ~600k MLCCs per VR200 NVL72 server, +30%+ vs. GB300). • ABF substrates +82%, power solutions +32%, and liquid cooling +12%. These upgrades align with broader AI scaling: 800G/1.6T optical transceivers ramping aggressively, glass-based technologies advancing for packaging and interconnects, and hyperscalers prioritizing performance, power efficiency, and thermal management. We expect sustained multi-year tailwinds for the AI hardware ecosystem into 2027+, with Rubin-driven demand accelerating in H2 2026. Investment Thesis: While Nvidia (NVDA) remains the core beneficiary, the supply chain offers diversified exposure. We favor companies with direct exposure to high-growth areas like advanced PCBs, high-speed optics, and glass substrates/optical interconnects. Risks include execution on new capacity, potential margin pressure from rapid scaling, and geopolitical supply chain factors. 1. PCB: Sharpest Value Uplift in Rubin BOM Morgan Stanley’s detailed analysis shows PCB content in the Rubin rack surging +233% versus GB300. This reflects needs for higher layer counts, advanced materials, better signal integrity, and larger formats to support increased power and interconnect density in AI servers. US Representative: TTM Technologies (TTMI) – Leading US PCB manufacturer with strong positioning in high-complexity boards for data center/AI applications. TTM has invested in capacity expansions (e.g., new facilities) to capture AI-driven demand for advanced HDI and high-layer PCBs. 2. MLCC: Density-Driven Surge Nvidia’s VR200 NVL72 platform requires ~600,000 MLCCs per server, over 30% more than GB300. Combined with the +182% value increase in the BOM, this underscores tightening supply for high-capacitance, high-reliability MLCCs in power delivery and decoupling for AI accelerators. Exposure Note: The MLCC market is dominated by Asian players (e.g., Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo). US-listed indirect exposure may come through broader electronics or power solution providers, but direct pure-play opportunities are limited. Watch for capacity utilization tightness benefiting the ecosystem. 3. Optical Communication: 800G/1.6T Ramp Accelerating Chinese leader Zhongji Innolight reported Q1 2026 net profit +262% YoY, driven by strong 800G/1.6T shipments, with expectations of significant full-year growth. This mirrors industry-wide momentum as AI clusters shift toward higher-speed optics for reduced latency and power in scale-out/scale-up networking. Nvidia’s investments in photonics and CPO further validate the trend. US Representatives: • Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE): Key players in optical components and transceivers; Nvidia has made substantial equity investments to secure capacity. • Corning (GLW): Major beneficiary via optical fiber, connectivity, and glass technologies (detailed below). 4. Micro-LED/Glass Substrates & Optical Interconnects: Strategic Partnerships Accelerating On May 20, 2026, BOE announced a cooperation MOU with Corning covering glass-based encapsulation carriers, foldable glass, perovskite substrates, and optical interconnect applications. This aligns with industry shifts toward glass cores for superior flatness, thermal stability, and integration in advanced packaging and photonics—critical for next-gen AI as organic substrates hit limits. US Representative: Corning (GLW) – Central to Nvidia’s optical strategy with multi-billion partnerships, new US optical factories, and expansion in fiber/photonics for AI data centers. Recent deals position GLW for 10x+ capacity growth in key areas. AI Hardware Demand Growth & US-Listed Representative Companies Table Component Demand Growth (vs. GB300) Key Drivers US-Listed Reps Investment Rationale PCB +233% value Higher layers, HDI, signal integrity TTM Technologies (TTMI) Direct AI server/backplane exposure; US capacity expansion MLCC +182% value; +30%+ count Power density in servers Limited direct (ecosystem via power suppliers) Supply tightness supports pricing/volume Optical Comm (800G/1.6T) Strong ramp (e.g., +262% profit ex.) Scale-out networking, CPO transition Coherent (COHR), Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW) Nvidia investments; transceiver/fiber boom Glass Substrates/Interconnects Emerging (MOU-driven) Packaging, photonics, thermal/optical Corning (GLW) Nvidia factory deals; US manufacturing tailwinds Power & Liquid Cooling +32% / +12% Higher TDP (e.g., 2300W GPUs) Indirect (ecosystem) Secondary but critical for rack deployment Source: Morgan Stanley BOM analysis, company reports, industry data. Growth metrics approximate from Rubin teardown. Outlook & Risks We project robust 2026-2027 growth in AI capex, with Rubin shipments catalyzing another leg-up in component demand. Optical and advanced substrate shifts could extend the cycle beyond traditional GPU focus. Hyperscalers’ vertical integration and US onshoring (e.g., Corning/Nvidia factories) add resilience. Key Risks: Cyclical capex pauses, yield/execution challenges on new tech (glass/CPO), commodity volatility in passives, and intense competition in Asia-heavy segments. Valuation multiples in the space have expanded; selectivity is key. Recommendation: Overweight select supply chain names with strong Nvidia alignment (e.g., TTMI for PCBs, COHR/LITE/GLW for optics/glass). Monitor Q2 2026 earnings for confirmation of Rubin ramp momentum.

The AI hardware stack produces more filings, releases, and technical updates than I can manually triage in real time. Most feeds tell me what was published. I wanted a desk that remembers what came before and flags what changed. So I’m experimenting with Grok Bot: monitoring public filings, IR, and conference programs, comparing new disclosures against the previous record, and flagging changes worth a closer look. Not a trading bot. A research desk organized around the AI hardware stack, not around trades. It surfaces the lead. I verify the evidence and decide whether it matters. This was the first overnight run. It surfaced two kinds of change. 1. Credo Revenue finished $4M above the top of guide. GAAP gross margin missed guidance, while non-GAAP remained within it. The more important signal is Q2. The non-GAAP gross-margin range stayed unchanged, while the GAAP range stepped down. The GAAP/non-GAAP gap is now embedded in guidance, not confined to Q1. The Q1 reconciliation shows that the entire 3.5-point gap comes from acquired-intangible amortization ($11.0M) and share-based compensation ($5.7M). Sources: 2. Vertiv The other catch was a new filing rather than a scheduled earnings diff. Vertiv disclosed an agreement to acquire UtilityInnovation Group. The company says the deal extends it upstream “to the grid interconnect, adding microgrid controls, onsite generation and energy storage orchestration, and behind-the-meter power architecture.” My read: that places Vertiv earlier in the data-center power decision chain. Source: It finds. I verify. I post. Early experiment. I’ll share more as I learn what works.

Before AI: - hardware is hard - teams > solo founders - technical founders only - PhDs build tech in search of a problem - hot SaaS startups get 100x ARR multiples After AI: - hardware is the only thing AI can't build - solo founders are 100x engineers - anyone can build - PhDs building AI infra name their price - SaaSpocalypse Am I missing anything?