▶ Ajinomoto Raises ABF Substrate Film Prices by 30% - Japan’s Ajinomoto has decided to raise prices for its core ABF build-up film by 30%, with the new prices set to take effect from Q3 2026. - Taiwanese package substrate makers said they have officially received notice of the price increase, at a time when cost pressures remain elevated across the IC substrate supply chain. - Specific new pricing is still under negotiation with suppliers, but in the near term, the hike is expected to increase production costs before being gradually passed through to product ASPs. - Despite the ABF price increase, the largest cost burden is still understood to come from repeated price hikes in upstream raw materials, particularly CCL. - With urgent demand from AI chip customers continuing, quarterly price increases for ABF and BT substrates are expected to persist through year-end. The magnitude of price hikes could widen further in the second half. - Ajinomoto holds more than 95% share of the global ABF market, giving it strong pricing power across the supply chain. IC substrate makers noted that the previous price increase took place around early 2025, roughly a year ago, and said the latest 30% increase is also a “reasonable level” given strong customer demand. - Unlike Nittobo, whose conservative capacity expansion stance has deepened the shortage of T-Glass fiberglass for IC substrates, Ajinomoto had already anticipated changes in ABF supply-demand dynamics three years ago and moved ahead with proactive capacity expansion. - As a result, despite its near-monopolistic market position, the supply bottleneck is viewed as relatively limited. Ajinomoto recently announced plans to build a third ABF plant in Gifu Prefecture, Japan, in order to address demand beyond 2030. - The company has secured land for the project with an investment of around JPY 12 billion, or approximately USD 76 million, and plans to begin construction in 2028, with mass production targeted for 2032. The new Gifu plant is expected to be much larger in scale than Ajinomoto’s existing production sites in Kanagawa and Gunma prefectures. - In addition, as AI chip packaging layer counts are expected to expand from the current 3+3 level to 11+11 layers, and potentially to 13+13 layers after 2030, ABF demand is likely to sustain structural growth. - According to the industry, as the AI CPU, GPU, and ASIC upgrade cycle accelerates, demand is rising for larger substrate area and higher layer counts. As a result, ABF substrates are understood to have re-entered a supply shortage phase from 1H 2026. - Shortages are also emerging simultaneously across the upstream value chain, including fiberglass, copper foil, and drill bits. Therefore, the ABF supply-demand imbalance in 2027–2028 is more likely to intensify than ease. - The industry expects the IC substrate sector to enter a so-called “Super Expansion Cycle” over the next two to three years, which should improve order visibility across the sector.

Meritz Securities: According to our channel checks, Japan’s Ajinomoto has recently informed customers that, due to an acute supply shortage, it will prioritize allocations for AI and high-end applications. As of 2Q26, its ABF film production lines are already operating at full capacity, while meaningful contributions from new capacity additions will take considerable time to materialize, leaving limited scope to expand supply in the near term. Consequently, limited ABF film volumes are expected to be allocated primarily to key AI customers and high-end products, further concentrating supply among leading substrate manufacturers with proven mass-production track records and stable yields in high-end ABF substrates. This could strengthen the leading players’ bargaining power within the supply chain and provide greater scope for price increases. Ajinomoto’s allocation strategy prioritizing AI and high-end demand is therefore expected to further widen the gap between leading and lagging players.

Rumor: Robust AI demand has caused ABF supplies to tighten so far that key ABF film maker Ajinomoto has begun selective shipments, media report, adding some customers have been notified of a 30% reduction in supply. Taiwan’s, WaferChem Technology developed TBF (Taiwan Build-Up Film) as an alternative and may benefit from tight ABF supplies. $NVDA $AVGO

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars: Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics. Not cheap Nike sock exports. With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto, over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards… Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work. Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US. Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea. But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.