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Capex component of @RichmondFed Manufacturing Index slid further into contraction in September and hasn’t expanded in over two years
$META capex forecast will be a “Goldilocks” situation. Investors aren’t rewarding more spend but less would be a disaster. Or as I said, More, while maybe not ideal is optimistic for the AI trade, less could be armegeddon.
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"The capex that's gone into AI exceeds that of railroads, exceeds that of other major industrial events in our history, electronification, telecoms, etc, highways, by far. So the question is where does it end?" @perkinscr97 on the state of the AI market
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AI CapEx And Earnings: What Happens When Growth Slows
🇺🇸 Capex
Initial consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated AI hyperscalers' capex growth in recent years
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@GoldmanSachs #AI# #capex# #tech# #stocks#
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Hyperscaler capex boom is significantly outpacing the largest capex booms in history.
$GOOGL $MSFT $META $ORCL $AMZN
Hyperscalers Capex-to-OCF ratio is heading toward 140% by 2027E (UBS upside case)
The AI spending cycle is getting very expensive.
$GOOGL $MSFT $META $AMZN $ORCL
AI CapEx is big, but the optionality of the platforms that CapEx is building are unlike anything we’ve seen before
$AMZN and $META can do unlimited things with their excess compute, all at a high margin because intelligence commands a premium
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Hyperscaler capex is set to hit about 3% of GDP a year through 2029
Tech capex is growing at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years
