CapEx in the US is skyrocketing: The value of US nondefense capital goods shipments, excluding aircraft, jumped +11.6% YoY in September, reaching a record $86 billion. This marks the fastest annual growth rate since July 2021. Even more impressive, shipments have risen at a 3-month annualized rate of +16.5%, the strongest pace since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery. Since October 2024, shipments have increased by +$12 billion, or +16.5%. Much of this momentum is being fueled by the AI investment boom. Orders for computers, servers, storage devices, and related equipment have surged +27% YoY, the largest annual increase since January 1997. The AI infrastructure buildout is beyond massive.

Cloud Capex next year is expected to outpace the last 6 years at $1.5T Neoclouds are now projected to outspend Amazon and become the largest slice of the stack $AMZN $GOOGL $META $MSFT $IREN $NBIS $CRWV

HYPERSCALER CAPEX Q3 2026: Microsoft lowered its CY26 outlook to ~$170B from ~$175B, attributing the Q3 shortfall to the timing of delivery of third-party capacity. Google and Meta also came in light this quarter while Amazon beat expectations. $GOOGL $META $AMZN $MSFT

$META capex forecast will be a “Goldilocks” situation. Investors aren’t rewarding more spend but less would be a disaster. Or as I said, More, while maybe not ideal is optimistic for the AI trade, less could be armegeddon.

"The capex that's gone into AI exceeds that of railroads, exceeds that of other major industrial events in our history, electronification, telecoms, etc, highways, by far. So the question is where does it end?" @perkinscr97 on the state of the AI market

🇺🇸 Capex Initial consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated AI hyperscalers' capex growth in recent years 👉 @GoldmanSachs #AI# #capex# #tech# #stocks#