Earnings Takeaways Note - FORM * 2Q26 beat across the board: Revenue $258.2M and 53.3% GM exceeded expectations * 3Q26 guided to ~$270M revenue with margins expanding to 54%. * AI recovery gaining traction: AI probe card share continues to rise, with stronger CPU and CPO demand supporting the next growth leg. * Rubin & Intel are key catalysts: Expect 10%+ share on Nvidia Rubin, further gains with Rubin Ultra/Humusfish, while Intel’s 18A ramp drives server CPU probe card demand and 20–30% pricing upside from node migration. * HBM to reaccelerate: Memory mix shifts toward DDR in 3Q26, but HBM revenue is expected to reach a record high in 4Q26 with next-gen AI platform ramps. * CPO momentum accelerating: Management expects CPO revenue to hit the high end of FY26 guidance by 3Q26, driven by Triton adoption and insertion leadership. * Valuation: Shares have corrected 38% from the peak and now trade at 25x 2027E P/E (vs. 33x/42x for MPI/Technoprobe), offering an attractive risk/reward. #FORM# #Formfactor#

Fentanyl Grade Compute: Why a GB300 Rack Will Out-Price Blow by Weight in 2030 A GB300 NVL72 weighs roughly 1,580 kg fully populated and recent purchase orders put it at $5M per rack. That is $3,165/kg. Strip out the 1.5 tons of busbar, manifold and coolant and the GPU packages alone are well into gold territory, but we're pricing the rack, because that's what you actually take delivery of. Where that sits on the illicit commodity curve today ($/kg): $2,400 Cannabis flower $3,165 GB300 NVL72 $3,500 Fentanyl $28,000 Cocaine $65,000 Heroin $138,000 Gold So today NVIDIA ships a product that is denser in value than weed, roughly fentanyl-grade, and still an order of magnitude short of cocaine. For now... GB200 NVL72 was $4M, GB300 is ~$5M, and Vera Rubin NVL72 is already quoted at up to $8.8M at essentially the same rack mass. Rack weight is constrained by the datacenter floor loading; rack price is constrained by nothing. That's ~1.75x $/kg per generation with HBM, CoWoS and power all supply-limited through the decade. Cocaine: Colombia's new president has pledged a hard-line security crackdown with $1B in US aid behind it Every prior crackdown has consolidated the industry into fewer, better-capitalized operators with better logistics and higher yields per hectare. Consolidation is deflationary. We model US wholesale drifting from ~$28k/kg toward ~$12k/kg by 2030 as the supply chain professionalizes. **Crossover: 2030.** Our extrapolated NVL72-class rack hits ~$17k/kg while wholesale cocaine falls to ~$12k/kg. At that point the rational cartel pivots to smuggling racks, except a rack has a fixed 500+ kW power draw, a 3,300 lb forklift requirement and an export-control regime that is actually enforced. Cocaine has none of these problems, which is why it will remain the superior product for anyone without a substation. Key risks to the thesis: US retail coke is still ~$60–200/g, i.e. $60k–200k/kg so the crossover only holds at wholesale. Retail compute (H100 hour on a neocloud) is also marked up, so we consider this an apples-to-apples wholesale comparison. Full model available to Coke Research subscribers.

Helping you understand why names like $MU, $SIVE, and $AAOI are down sharply today: Paradis Macro Report [June 9]: -> Iran war, yields/rates, and upcoming macro catalysts. Iran shot down U.S. Apache helicopter today while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. A confirmed US strike on Iran would: Spike oil = Hit risk appetite = Worsen equity weakness. Today, we already saw some violent factor rotation: Momentum/growth -> Value/defensive Highlighted by: - $QQQ: -4.2% intraday - $SPY: -2.7% intraday - $DJI: flat So, a very fearful / risk-off market right now, as seen by high growth names like $IREN, $AXTI and $LITE being down >10% today. Yields have also jumped after the June 5 payrolls beat (US 10Y: 4.54%). Meaning that Fed futures are now pricing in a rate hike by end of yr. Basically: Higher real yields = valuation compression for long-duration growth/AI names. (Long-duration because the value in AI equities sit in cash-flows years out) Ultimately, all this favours value/financials over AI growth names, which are all unwinding simultaneously right now. But directionally, AI supercycle names will all continue higher in the long-run, driven by huge hyperscaler capex. In terms of upcoming macro catalysts: 1. US May CPI [Jun 10]: A hot print (>4.2% headline) hardens the "Fed can't cut / may hike" narrative. = yields up, $ up, more pressure on AI/growth multiples. A soft core surprise would be the relief valve for chips. = relief rally in AI names. 2. $ORCL Earnings [Jun 10]: Strong RPO/capex execution = bullish for the entire AI supply chain (HBM, optical, packaging, networking). 3. FOMC [Jun 16-17]: The statement language (does it drop the easing bias / call labour "solid" vs "moderating") and the dots will reset the Y/E hike vs cut debate. A hawkish hold / hike-signaling dots = pressure on AI supercycle names. Any dovish surprise = relief for AI supercycle names. --- For inexperienced investors, I have advised countless times to avoid risky instruments such as options/leverage. Right now, with the current macro backdrop, stick to normal shares. Personally, I have slowed down most dip-buying to let this macro uncertainty wash through.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 【US Listed Stocks Implied Catalyst Brief】🔍 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📅 Date: July 22, 2026 (Wednesday) 🌍 Market: US Equities (NYSE + NASDAQ) 【Executive Summary】 Late July brings a dense calendar of macro data and earnings season for US stocks. Three under-the-radar trends to watch this week: ① Small-cap SaaS firms witness coordinated buying by CEOs and directors ($EVCM, Palisade Bio); insiders start accumulating shares after steep valuation compression. ② Bridgewater’s Q2 13F filings reveal a sharp 70% cut to Apple alongside a 62% increase in $AMD holdings, a clear signal of rotation within AI hardware names. ③ Biotech PDUFA season kicks off; $OTLK faces a July 29 FDA decision with an estimated 89% approval probability. I. Major SEC Filing Announcements (Past 1–2 Weeks) ■ $EVCM EverCommerce Inc. (8-K + Form 4, July 8) CEO Eric Remer purchased 75,000 shares at $9.98 ($748,500). Director Richard Peretz bought 100,000 shares ($995,000). Director Eric Rosenthal acquired 60,000 shares ($601,200). The three executives collectively purchased 235,000 shares on the same day for a total of $2.34 million, marking the largest single-day insider purchase in 18 months. The firm recently divested non-core businesses; its stock trades near the 52-week low of $9.45 with a PS ratio of only 1.8x, representing a 40% discount versus the peer median of 3.0x. ■ $BABA Alibaba Group (8-K, Ongoing Share Repurchases) Repurchases executed between July 2–8: 4.16 million shares on July 2 ($49.99 million); 1.47 million shares on July 8 ($19.99 million). Cumulative repurchases since program authorization stand at 31.26 million shares (0.16% of total shares outstanding). Current trailing PE stands at roughly 12x, within its historical low range. ■ $KR Kroger Co. (8-K, July 1) Definitive agreement to acquire Giant Eagle for a total consideration of $1.65 billion ($1.25 billion cash plus assumption of $400 million debt). Giant Eagle generates approximately $9 billion in annual revenue and operates 197 supermarkets plus 11 pharmacies, with geographic footprints highly complementary to Kroger’s existing markets (OH/PA/WV/MD/IN). II. Insider Trading Activity (Form 4, Past 1–2 Weeks) ■ $EVCM EverCommerce — ⭐Strong Signal CEO and two directors made coordinated purchases totaling $2.34 million on July 8 at average prices ranging $9.75–$10.15. Short interest remains elevated at 8.5% of the float, creating potential short squeeze dynamics on upward price moves. A comparable cluster insider purchase worth $1.8 million in December 2024 preceded a 22% share price gain within six weeks. ■ $FLD Fold Holdings — ⭐CEO Accumulation CEO purchased 250,000 shares at $2.60 on July 6 ($650,000), lifting direct holdings by roughly 15%. The stock sits merely 8% above its 52-week low of $2.40. Q2 earnings are scheduled for July 25. Open interest on $3.00 strike call options has risen noticeably in recent sessions. ■ $PALI Palisade Bio — ⭐Serial Director Buying Director Robert Baltera Jr. completed three tranches of purchases between July 1–8 totaling 125,000 shares: $1.98 (30,000), $2.04 (50,000), $1.97 (45,000), for approximately $250,000 total. His shareholding increased by 34%, representing the largest management purchase since January this year. ■ $ANET Arista Networks — ⚠️CEO Disposition CEO Jayshree Ullal sold approximately 477,000 shares across July 9–10 for aggregate proceeds of $89.5 million. While classified as routine selling, the sizable volume warrants monitoring. III. Institutional Position Shifts from 13F Filings (Latest Quarter) ■ Bridgewater Q2: Sharp 70% Cut to AAPL, +62% Stake Increase in AMD Total portfolio market value stood at $19.2 billion (a $600 million quarter-over-quarter decline). The most notable adjustment: substantial reduction in Apple (-70%), paired with a 420,000-share addition to AMD (+62%). Positions in TSM, NVDA, MU, AVGO, MRVL and other AI semiconductor names were retained. Bridgewater is rotating AI exposure away from richly valued large-cap leaders toward second-tier semiconductor stocks. ■ Berkshire Hathaway Q1 (First Post-Warren Buffett 13F) New $2.6 billion position in DAL (Delta Air Lines), marking a return to airline equities. Stake increase in GOOGL elevated it to the seventh-largest holding. New $55 million position in Macy’s. Full liquidation of AMZN and Visa. The new management team demonstrates a tilt toward value recovery and cyclical consumer plays. ■ Composite Signal: Q2 13F data reflects institutional “sell expensive, buy undervalued” positioning — trimming high-valued AI leaders including MSFT/NVDA/AAPL while adding AMD/MU/MRVL and other second-tier semiconductor names. Select institutions have begun tentative repositioning into rate-sensitive cyclicals such as airlines and retail. IV. Analyst Rating Revisions (Past 1–2 Weeks) ■ $XYZ Block — Piper Sandler Two-Tier Upgrade to Overweight Target price raised from $58 to $100 (+72%), driven by projected gross profit growth and margin expansion. Recent underperformance across payments and consumer finance stocks stems from valuation compression rather than EPS deterioration. The firm also assigned Overweight ratings to V/MA/AXP/AFRM/COF. ■ $FIVE Five Below — Bernstein Upgrade to Outperform Target price lifted from $247 to $250. Discount retailers stand to benefit from consumer downgrading trends amid weaker economic conditions. ■ $ADBE Adobe — HSBC upgraded to Buy ($308) on July 2, followed by another firm downgrade to Sell ($240) on July 21. Widening rating divergence reflects unresolved market debate over AI’s impact on creative software. Bulls argue Adobe Firefly unlocks new growth avenues; bears warn of market share erosion from competitors including Canva. ■ $PLTR Palantir — DA Davidson Upgrade to Buy Target price set at $175. Growth accelerates on both government and commercial demand for its AIP AI platform. ■ $SHOP Shopify — Stifel Upgrade to Buy Target price increased from $110 to $150. Consistent profitability improvement for the e-commerce SaaS platform. V. M&A & Corporate Combination Announcements (Past 1–2 Weeks) ■ GSK Acquisition of $NUVL Nuvalent — $10.6 Billion All-Cash Deal GSK closed its acquisition of Nuvalent on July 15 at $124 per share in all cash. Nuvalent develops precision oncology therapies targeting ALK/ROS1 mutations. The transaction featured a substantial acquisition premium, and Nuvalent delisted from Nasdaq. ■ $AA Alcoa Acquisition of South32 Aluminum Assets — Up to $5.6 Billion On July 1, Alcoa announced acquisition of South32’s integrated bauxite, alumina and aluminum smelting assets to solidify its position as the world’s largest aluminum producer. AA pre-market fell 3.6% on announcement amid investor concerns over overpayment, though scale advantages and cost synergies from integration merit follow-up. ■ $KR Kroger Acquisition of Giant Eagle — $1.65 Billion See Section I above. Kroger intends to accelerate Giant Eagle’s growth via data analytics, e-commerce solutions and operational discipline. VI. Share Repurchase Authorizations (Past 1–2 Weeks) ■ $NU Nu Holdings — New $1 Billion Buyback Program Board approved a 12-month $1 billion repurchase program on June 4. The Brazilian digital bank continues generating substantial excess capital while expanding into Mexico, Colombia and the United States. Current market capitalization stands at roughly $53 billion; the buyback represents approximately 1.9% of market value. ■ $NWSA News Corp — Ongoing $1 Billion Repurchase Program Aggregate repurchases reached $364 million as of July 14 (including a $2.72 million tranche on July 14). Approximately $636 million of authorization remains available, equivalent to 3–4% of market cap, signaling constructive capital return momentum. ■ $BABA Alibaba — Daily Buybacks Ranging $5–20 Million Repurchase pace accelerated in July. Cumulative repurchases since program launch total 31.26 million shares. Sustained buybacks at depressed price levels alongside a 12x PE ratio provide meaningful downside support. VII. FDA Biotech Catalysts ■ $OTLK Outlook Therapeutics (PDUFA July 29, 89% Probability) Bevacizumab BLA for wet age-related macular degeneration (Wet AMD). The regulatory decision is due in 9 days. If approved, it will serve as a lower-cost alternative to Lucentis, with an addressable annual market exceeding $8 billion. Current market cap sits near $300 million; regulatory results will dictate near-term price trajectory. ■ $CAPR Capricor Therapeutics (PDUFA August 22, 67% Probability) Deramiocel for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) cardiomyopathy. The candidate holds Orphan Drug, Rare Pediatric Disease and Fast Track designations amid urgent unmet patient needs. The 67% approval probability implies elevated uncertainty, yet substantial upside potential upon clearance. ■ $CELC Celcuity (PDUFA Date Elapsed, July 20) Gedatolisib for second-line HR+/HER2- breast cancer, granted Priority Review, Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track status with a historical approval probability of ~90%. The PDUFA deadline passed July 20; official regulatory conclusions await confirmation. ■ $SMMT Summit Therapeutics (PDUFA November 14) BLA submission for EGFR-mutant NSCLC post-TKI treatment failure. Approval would fill an unmet clinical niche for EGFR resistance cases. VIII. Retail Social Media Trending Equities (Past 1–2 Weeks) ■ $SNAP Snap Inc. — Reddit Discussion Volume +633% Spiking social sentiment likely tied to Q2 earnings expectations due late July. Fundamentals remain pressured by fierce advertising competition, while the potential TikTok ban remains unresolved. ■ $SPCX SpaceX — Sustained Retail Investor Enthusiasm 677 Reddit mentions with 78.6% bullish sentiment. SpaceX remains the primary accessible space-sector name for retail investors, keeping sentiment elevated. Valuation bubble risks require vigilance. ■ $GME GameStop — Meme Stock Revival 586 Reddit mentions with 152.6% bullish tilt. July rebound correlates with upcoming Q2 earnings and potential transformation catalysts, though no fundamental inflection is confirmed; price action is largely sentiment-driven. ■ $MU Micron Technology — Heated Bull-Bear Debate 714 Reddit mentions with largely neutral sentiment (only 2.3% bullish). Headwinds include Korean semiconductor financing risks, balanced against long-term HBM demand; market direction remains highly contested. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 【Ranked Watchlist】Top 5 High-Potential Equities ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🥇 #1#: $EVCM EverCommerce Inc. Core Catalysts: Coordinated insider purchases totaling $2.34 million by CEO and two directors on July 8, the largest cluster management acquisition in 18 months. PS ratio of 1.8x versus peer median 3.0x; non-core asset divestitures set the stage for operating margin improvement. Key Metrics: Share price ~$10.5, market cap $1.85 billion, short interest 8.5% (short squeeze potential). Risks: Small-business SaaS spending may contract amid elevated interest rates; stock remains within a downtrend. Positioning Note: Suitable for medium-to-long-term accumulation on dips. Entry zone $9.5–$10, stop-loss $8.5 (10% below 52-week trough). Target range $13–$15 (implying reversion to 2.5x PS). ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🥈 #2#: $XYZ Block Inc. Core Catalysts: Piper Sandler two-tier upgrade to Overweight; target lifted from $58 to $100 (+72%). Gross profit expansion driven by Square merchant ecosystem and Cash App dual engines. Valuations across the payments sector have undergone significant compression. Key Metrics: Current share price ~$75, target $100, PE has retreated to reasonable territory. Risks: Rising consumer loan credit losses, volatile bitcoin-derived revenue, ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Positioning Note: Enter $70–$75 zone, stop-loss $62. Upside toward $95–$100 if Q2 earnings (early August) validate margin expansion. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🥉 #3#: $AMD Advanced Micro Devices Core Catalysts: Bridgewater lifted AMD holdings by 62% in Q2. Institutional capital is rotating out of NVDA toward second-tier AI semiconductor names. MI300/MI400 ramp accelerates, building AMD’s nascent data center GPU footprint. Key Metrics: Clear Q2 institutional accumulation signal; AMD holds cost-performance advantages over NVDA within AI inference workloads. Risks: Competitive pressure from NVIDIA Blackwell architecture, sentiment spillover from Korean semiconductor financing strains, persistent weakness in PC end-markets. Positioning Note: Existing holders may maintain positions; new entries await the $160–$165 zone. Accelerated adoption in AI inference represents the primary H2 2026 catalyst. Stop-loss $140. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏅 #4#: $OTLK Outlook Therapeutics Core Catalysts: July 29 PDUFA decision (9 days away) for Bevacizumab in Wet AMD with an 89% historical approval probability. Approval would create a low-cost alternative to Lucentis within an $8 billion+ annual addressable market. Key Metrics: Current market cap ~$300 million, PDUFA scheduled July 29. Risks: Severe share price downside if FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL); questions over manufacturing capacity and commercialization capabilities; potential need for partnerships or capital raises for launch. Positioning Note: High risk, high reward. Limit allocation to speculative tranches (≤2% of total portfolio). Pre-PDUFA share price rallies are typical. Reduce half of the position ahead of the decision date to lock in gains regardless of outcome. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏅 #5#: $BABA Alibaba Group Core Catalysts: Trailing PE of only 12x with sustained daily buybacks of $5–20 million. Top-tier institutions including Bridgewater and Appaloosa (David Tepper; BABA as the largest 11.7% portfolio holding) maintain heavy positions. Growth drivers include AI cloud and cross-border e-commerce. Key Metrics: Share price ~$120, PE 12x, daily buyback range $5–20 million. Risks: Uncertain domestic macro backdrop, US–China tech decoupling risks, intensifying competition from Pinduoduo and Douyin E-commerce. Positioning Note: Scale in tranches between $110–$120 for long-term holdings. The combination of 12x PE and active repurchases offers robust downside protection. Stop-loss $95. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Follow, share and save. The Wall Street Watch team will continue tracking developments and interpreting quantitative data. Drawing on the WSV Model, we deliver analysis covering equities, gold, bonds (ETFs), sector rotation metrics and individual stock case studies to capture forward positioning opportunities. ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Disclaimer: All content is for informational reference only and shall not constitute investment advice or trading guidance. Information is compiled from public filings and calculated via quantitative machine learning models. No warranty is made regarding the authenticity, completeness or accuracy of data herein. Past performance does not guarantee future returns; case studies do not guarantee profitable outcomes. Investors act at their own risk. All investments carry risk.

At Hot Chips 2026, IBM showed a crazy new IBM Z CPU that will support IBM Z and @Arm instruction sets natively. This is almost mind-blowing what the @IBM engineers did here. New AI acceleration with redundancy and HBM 3e as well. Wow.

Fubon- "the production push out in Rubin will bring some negative impact to the supply chain as Rubin has higher dollar content compared to Blackwell" $MU: "recent checks suggest that $NVDA HBM4 cost will increase to US$31-32 per GB from US$17-18 per GB (HBM 3e) in 2026." "We estimate nVidia’s Rubin GPU price will skyrocket to US$78-80K assuming nVidia is still able to maintain its GM at 75-80% in chips." "For other GPU and custom-ASIC projects, we believe their HBM cost will be higher than nVidia’s and may reach US$35-36 per GB, meaning the HBM cost will double in 2027." "Despite the market’s AI inflation concern recently, in our view, the token cost is still a more important factor in driving CSP’s capex, and we remain positive about AI market demand." "Our checks suggest nVidia still plans to put the same amount of compute dies in its new rack architecture or system" "Between the two racks, nVidia plans to use NPO/CPO for scale out connection while inside the rack, cable connection is still used for scale up connection" "Based on our checks, Google plans to have 12-15mn TPUs in 2028. Entering 2028, Google’s TPUs will enter the V9 generation with four compute dies, suggesting that their capacity consumption will more than double in 2028 vs. 2027." "Based on our checks, $INTC EMIB capacity will reach 10-12k by the end of 2026, and the plan is to double its capacity to 24-25k per month by the end of 2027." "we see $TSM slowing down its SoIC expansion to prioritize the CoWoS expansion" $AVGO: "we think it is possible that MediaTek could further raise its custom-ASIC market share in 2027."

CHINA’S CXMT BEGINS HBM3E PRODUCTION China’s CXMT has started small-scale production of HBM3E, The Information reports. The advanced high-bandwidth memory is used in many of today’s leading AI processors.

CHINA’S CXMT BEGINS PRODUCING HBM3E MEMORY China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies has started small-scale production of HBM3E, the advanced memory used in AI processors including NVIDIA’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs, according to The Information. Alibaba’s T-Head and Cambricon are already testing CXMT’s HBM with their AI chips and could begin using it in products as early as 2027. CXMT plans to expand production next year. The development could ease a major bottleneck for China’s domestic AI-chip industry, which is restricted from buying the most advanced foreign HBM. CXMT is still dealing with low yields and remains roughly 3-5 years behind the leading HBM manufacturers. SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are already mass-producing HBM4 and sampling HBM4E.