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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
SemiAnalysis AI Infrastructure Research and Consulting DMs are open for consulting, quotes, or to talk shop, Opinions my own
1K Following    163.8K Followers
Rubin HBM Despec = Nvidia cutting coke
Fentanyl Grade Compute: Why a GB300 Rack Will Out-Price Blow by Weight in 2030 A GB300 NVL72 weighs roughly 1,580 kg fully populated and recent purchase orders put it at $5M per rack. That is $3,165/kg. Strip out the 1.5 tons of busbar, manifold and coolant and the GPU packages alone are well into gold territory, but we're pricing the rack, because that's what you actually take delivery of. Where that sits on the illicit commodity curve today ($/kg): $2,400 Cannabis flower $3,165 GB300 NVL72 $3,500 Fentanyl $28,000 Cocaine $65,000 Heroin $138,000 Gold So today NVIDIA ships a product that is denser in value than weed, roughly fentanyl-grade, and still an order of magnitude short of cocaine. For now... GB200 NVL72 was $4M, GB300 is ~$5M, and Vera Rubin NVL72 is already quoted at up to $8.8M at essentially the same rack mass. Rack weight is constrained by the datacenter floor loading; rack price is constrained by nothing. That's ~1.75x $/kg per generation with HBM, CoWoS and power all supply-limited through the decade. Cocaine: Colombia's new president has pledged a hard-line security crackdown with $1B in US aid behind it Every prior crackdown has consolidated the industry into fewer, better-capitalized operators with better logistics and higher yields per hectare. Consolidation is deflationary. We model US wholesale drifting from ~$28k/kg toward ~$12k/kg by 2030 as the supply chain professionalizes. **Crossover: 2030.** Our extrapolated NVL72-class rack hits ~$17k/kg while wholesale cocaine falls to ~$12k/kg. At that point the rational cartel pivots to smuggling racks, except a rack has a fixed 500+ kW power draw, a 3,300 lb forklift requirement and an export-control regime that is actually enforced. Cocaine has none of these problems, which is why it will remain the superior product for anyone without a substation. Key risks to the thesis: US retail coke is still ~$60–200/g, i.e. $60k–200k/kg so the crossover only holds at wholesale. Retail compute (H100 hour on a neocloud) is also marked up, so we consider this an apples-to-apples wholesale comparison. Full model available to Coke Research subscribers.
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In 2025 a misaligned Anthropic model hacked the US Governent looking for the Furry NSA chat
The Chinese AI Infrastructure Boom: Introducing the SemiAnalysis China Datacenter Model 1,000+ facilities across 60+ operators mapped, built retail-first and flipped by AI, largest hyperscaler leases 1/5 national capacity, 100MW in 12 months, Eastern Data Western Compute
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Fentanyl Grade Compute: Why a GB300 Rack Will Out-Price Blow by Weight in 2030 A GB300 NVL72 weighs roughly 1,580 kg fully populated and recent purchase orders put it at $5M per rack. That is $3,165/kg. Strip out the 1.5 tons of busbar, manifold and coolant and the GPU packages alone are well into gold territory, but we're pricing the rack, because that's what you actually take delivery of. Where that sits on the illicit commodity curve today ($/kg): $2,400 Cannabis flower $3,165 GB300 NVL72 $3,500 Fentanyl $28,000 Cocaine $65,000 Heroin $138,000 Gold So today NVIDIA ships a product that is denser in value than weed, roughly fentanyl-grade, and still an order of magnitude short of cocaine. For now... GB200 NVL72 was $4M, GB300 is ~$5M, and Vera Rubin NVL72 is already quoted at up to $8.8M at essentially the same rack mass. Rack weight is constrained by the datacenter floor loading; rack price is constrained by nothing. That's ~1.75x $/kg per generation with HBM, CoWoS and power all supply-limited through the decade. Cocaine: Colombia's new president has pledged a hard-line security crackdown with $1B in US aid behind it Every prior crackdown has consolidated the industry into fewer, better-capitalized operators with better logistics and higher yields per hectare. Consolidation is deflationary. We model US wholesale drifting from ~$28k/kg toward ~$12k/kg by 2030 as the supply chain professionalizes. **Crossover: 2030.** Our extrapolated NVL72-class rack hits ~$17k/kg while wholesale cocaine falls to ~$12k/kg. At that point the rational cartel pivots to smuggling racks, except a rack has a fixed 500+ kW power draw, a 3,300 lb forklift requirement and an export-control regime that is actually enforced. Cocaine has none of these problems, which is why it will remain the superior product for anyone without a substation. Key risks to the thesis: US retail coke is still ~$60–200/g, i.e. $60k–200k/kg so the crossover only holds at wholesale. Retail compute (H100 hour on a neocloud) is also marked up, so we consider this an apples-to-apples wholesale comparison. Full model available to Coke Research subscribers.
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Everytime AI spend grows where I flirt with token budgeting, Anthropic + OpenAI save me Astra had a spike then settled down lower Opus 5.5 it looks like spend is lowered for current usecases Of course people figure out new things to do Spend goes up again ROI keeps increasing
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ALERT ALERT ALERT 🚨 🚨 🚨 VLLM MAINTAINERS HAVE JUST SHOWN THAT TPUv7 CAN GET 700 tok/s/user,  56% BETTER PERFORMANCE THAN NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 THROUGH MEGAKERNEL OPTIMIZATION ON KIMI K3. As we said awhile ago, the TPU externalization of software is full steam ahead. This is ultra important to follow the progress of this.
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Spoke with AMD, they did not ship / sell this dual use chip to this firm and they're investigating the sourcing. This violates their policies + they work with authorities to take action on violations I am very concerned about the fact that pricing discrepancy is so large. I have heard from multiple folks that there are bitstream compatible FPGAs not from AMD that are floating around too.
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US supply chains for electronics suck so much AMD found a business opportunity in dumping US military chips for 1/4 of the cost in China. US list price is $36k for this chip, with $4-5k to US companies at volume, but it's getting quoted $1k in China to crowdfunding campaigns AMD needs to be investigated for treason. it's not just export violations, but it's literally selling military end use components to an adversary for less than your home country.... Pharma companies are also similarly treasonous
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I wanted to use this photo because it's the actual package and looks way cooler. The black area above is the DRAM but not milled yet. Cross section from our Hitachi XTEM coming soon 🤫
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We took the silicon out of the silicon. Quick turn from SemiAnalysis STEEL Teardown Lab: iPhone 18 Pro Max, A20 silicon on TSMC N2. more to follow...
US supply chains for electronics suck so much AMD found a business opportunity in dumping US military chips for 1/4 of the cost in China. US list price is $36k for this chip, with $4-5k to US companies at volume, but it's getting quoted $1k in China to crowdfunding campaigns AMD needs to be investigated for treason. it's not just export violations, but it's literally selling military end use components to an adversary for less than your home country.... Pharma companies are also similarly treasonous
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Nuke SF
People hate on SF men for group think, but every girl in SF has Tabi's now It's an epidemic
I'm hiring 2 full time folks in Chicago in office. Accounting Operations The amount of diff ops our 120 person company has is incredible The amount of diff work we see The opportunity to work with an incredibly fast moving and talented organization. If anyone knows anyone pls lmk
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Long Live the Short King: Why 4-hi HBM Wins Same Bandwidth, Fewer Dies: How 4-hi HBM Cuts Inference Costs and Makes Scarce DRAM Go Further
🚨 EXCLUSIVE: SemiAnalysis CEO Dylan Patel was all smiles on the streets of San Francisco, hours after the semiconductor research firm acquired Citrini Research
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And on his farm he had to pay taxes EI EI EIN
I love leaving San Francisco during Goldman TMT because when the finance bros come, the city becomes significantly more retarded
We started calling marketing growth so men could do it We started calling socialites VCs so men can do it
faithful stochastic parrot devotees desperately scrambling to find underpaid Kenyan genius who solved millenium prize in latest mercor data dump
We are excited to bring the first open benchmarking of Google's TPUs to the world Running every day, on many models + scenarios $/token is better than B200 and B300 Huge shout-out to Google @inferact and the InferenceX team at SemiAnalysis to this effort that's taken many months
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Here's a 52 min deep-dive video into everything AI & power with @SemiAnalysis_. Lot's of work went into that & I think it's worth a watch 😊 👉AI is running out of Power
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