Register and share your invite link to earn from video plays and referrals.

Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
SemiAnalysis AI Infrastructure Research and Consulting DMs are open for consulting, quotes, or to talk shop, Opinions my own
1.1K Following    170.6K Followers
Persistent Agents are the next unlock of AI usage Our spend on AI is now 45% persistent agents Unfortunately for Anthropic, Claude Tags sucks OpenAI's Slack agent is even worse We primarily use Perplexity Computer, which uses a lot of different models Perplexity's Harness mogs
Show more
0
169
967
62
Forward to community
Why is Baseten worth more than Nebius? This makes 0 sense Venture market valuations are nuts
0
110
1.1K
42
Forward to community
I am now bullish space datacenters
0
173
4.6K
198
Forward to community
Official apology to Google from me, they cooked with Carbon. It's spikier in terms of domains and capabilities, but it's really good in a few areas.
0
114
1.9K
130
Forward to community
Re OpenAI TPU announcements, SemiAnalysis clients had this already.
I'm doing a new startup with @asciimike It's Chinese leg extension surgery Except for you break your skull and expand your brain
I'm have a new startup, building Chinese leg extension surgery Except it breaks your brain and expands ur brain
The two worst things for society Both called DCs Diet Coke Datacenters
This is actually funny as fuck There's multiple sites with item that have had issues, not 1 TogetherAI was downgraded in ClusterMAX because of reliability issues. Vipul is not even guju and I know him and like him but our feedback and downgrade is because of quality issues. We remain fair and objective. Nebius downtime and reliability issues were much less. There's not a single cloud that doesn't have downtime, the question is how much, how often, etc. Your post has so much misinformation even in the first section no point in addressing the rest
Show more
A $200 AI subscription can be worth $12,000 in tokens. Which plan delivers it is not close. "They're selling to willing buyers at the fair market price. This is capitalism." "You can pay $200 for a Claude plan and get $12,000 of Opus 5.5 tokens at API pricing. So that's obviously a good deal." "You have to say the $200 plan, when running a particular workload on a particular model, gives you some dollar amount. But then you also have 5.5, which is a beast. $6K or $5,000 worth of value." "And when you do that comparison, it's not even a question of who's providing more value. ChatGPT versus Anthropic subscriptions." @maxkan and Andrew Megalaa join @JordanNanos this week
Show more
Mistral 4 is pretty good at lawyer bench and cyber security bench, but give it's European heritage, one can only assume it's also good at regulation bench
Meet Mistral Large 4, aka Le Chonk. • 1T parameters, natively multimodal. 49B active. It is the best open weights model from US or Europe on aggregated benchmarks. • State-of-the-art on critical workloads, including cyber defense, manufacturing and finance and it surpasses closed frontier models on visual grounding. • Forged in Europe end-to-end and is deployable from Europe via our own Mistral Cloud infrastructure. • Available to all via API today. Working with cybersecurity partners privately. Open weights release end of October.
Show more
"And antisemitism will be dead in about 6 months once Sydney Sweeney converts so don't worry bout it" - @Chaimeisenberg Incredible things are happening in SemiAnalysis Slack
The difference in what Anthropic and OpenAI as well as many others give you in value for a subscription is insane. We tested Meta, Minimax, Kimi, Grok, and Cursor subscriptions
It doesn't make sense to say a subscription plan is worth $ X in isolation. The way to think about subscriptions is that your monthly payment grants you some numbers of “credits”. Each (model, token type) combo consumes a different amount of credits. Because credit cost ratios can differ dramatically from API price ratios, the “value” of the same plan changes depending on what model and workload you’re running. Here’s how the API-equivalent value of the same $200/month Claude plan changes depending on the model and workload. (1/6)🧵
Show more
@RileyCramer6 @athuinvests We never said they moved off Cerebras permanently or wholesale???
Long live the short king
We cut our RAM in half for the Tesla AI5 chip (now 72GB of LP5) and 1/3 for AI6 (now 144GB of LP6). This was the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production and greatly reduces cost. As it turns out, we think this will have a negligible effect on Optimus performance, as memory bandwidth is a bigger limiting factor than total memory storage (bandwidth was held constant).
Show more
A lot of people tell me they use agents to build xyz Thing is, some people have an accent or say it quickly And so I hear we use Asians to build xyz Which is like... Well ya that's been the global economy for the last few decades.
Show more
Can't invest in Anthropic at 2 trillion because it could be a 0 and I'm fucked, or it could be 20 trillion, but at 20 trillion we are all fucked.
0
193
7.8K
259
Forward to community
AI is making papers cheaper to produce. ICLR submissions: 4,938 (2023), 7,262 (2024), 11,603 (2025), 19,525 (2026). Reported 2027 IDs exceed 62K, above roughly 56K paper submissions in all previous years COMBINED. Can reviewers keep up? (1/6)🧵
Show more
Rubin HBM Despec = Nvidia cutting coke
Fentanyl Grade Compute: Why a GB300 Rack Will Out-Price Blow by Weight in 2030 A GB300 NVL72 weighs roughly 1,580 kg fully populated and recent purchase orders put it at $5M per rack. That is $3,165/kg. Strip out the 1.5 tons of busbar, manifold and coolant and the GPU packages alone are well into gold territory, but we're pricing the rack, because that's what you actually take delivery of. Where that sits on the illicit commodity curve today ($/kg): $2,400 Cannabis flower $3,165 GB300 NVL72 $3,500 Fentanyl $28,000 Cocaine $65,000 Heroin $138,000 Gold So today NVIDIA ships a product that is denser in value than weed, roughly fentanyl-grade, and still an order of magnitude short of cocaine. For now... GB200 NVL72 was $4M, GB300 is ~$5M, and Vera Rubin NVL72 is already quoted at up to $8.8M at essentially the same rack mass. Rack weight is constrained by the datacenter floor loading; rack price is constrained by nothing. That's ~1.75x $/kg per generation with HBM, CoWoS and power all supply-limited through the decade. Cocaine: Colombia's new president has pledged a hard-line security crackdown with $1B in US aid behind it Every prior crackdown has consolidated the industry into fewer, better-capitalized operators with better logistics and higher yields per hectare. Consolidation is deflationary. We model US wholesale drifting from ~$28k/kg toward ~$12k/kg by 2030 as the supply chain professionalizes. **Crossover: 2030.** Our extrapolated NVL72-class rack hits ~$17k/kg while wholesale cocaine falls to ~$12k/kg. At that point the rational cartel pivots to smuggling racks, except a rack has a fixed 500+ kW power draw, a 3,300 lb forklift requirement and an export-control regime that is actually enforced. Cocaine has none of these problems, which is why it will remain the superior product for anyone without a substation. Key risks to the thesis: US retail coke is still ~$60–200/g, i.e. $60k–200k/kg so the crossover only holds at wholesale. Retail compute (H100 hour on a neocloud) is also marked up, so we consider this an apples-to-apples wholesale comparison. Full model available to Coke Research subscribers.
Show more