Abstract - Semtech (SMTC) Initiated Buy on 1.6T and NPO
• Initiates with Buy, $180 PT (25x FY28E P/E).
• Transitioning from an analog chip company to an AI interconnect beneficiary w portfolio spanning ACC, TIA, drivers, lasers and NPO analog solutions.
• Guides FY27 AI revenue >$350M; we forecast $466M (FY27E) → $1.22B (FY28E), driven by 1.6T.
• Google TPU expansion to be a key catalyst for CopperEdge ACC.
• NPO adoption could be the next major growth leg beyond 2027 as DSP removal increases analog content.
• Believes NVIDIA and leading CSPs are evaluating NPO deployments.
• NPO market size : we forecast 38M NPO optical engines in 2028, suggesting a multi-billion-dollar TIA/driver TAM
• Acquisition of HieFo strengthens its laser portfolio and expands optical content opportunities.
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