Bitcoin to $78K wipes out $552M in leveraged longs overnight $BTC fell 3.2% to near $78,000 in Asian hours Saturday, erasing the past week's rally. CoinGlass shows $581M in 24-hour liquidations, 95% long-skewed. $SOL down 5%, $XRP down 4.3%, $ETH down 3.3%.

【2026.5.15】The difference between the implied volatility of 1-month 25-delta put and call options on US tech stocks (i.e., option skewness) has decreased significantly (bottom right of the chart). While a decrease in option skewness is generally a positive sign, it is currently near historical lows, indicating excessive optimism and an underestimation of risk. Any extreme extreme in anything is a sign of a reversal, and option skewness nearing historical lows often foreshadows potential increases in short-term market volatility. Once external factors cause disruptions that fail to further drive market expectations, extreme optimism can turn into extreme disappointment. Therefore, when option skewness is at historical lows, leverage should be appropriately reduced and hedging protection increased. Similar to the VIX, extremely low volatility itself may only be noteworthy, but if several fatal combinations occur simultaneously (e.g., low volatility + high valuation + pessimistic options market + tightening PQ liquidity), especially in the RXM/SPX range... As previously discussed, this reflects the true risk appetite of market participants, meaning that option pricing is currently extremely cautious (low ratio). Meanwhile, market valuations are high, and volatility remains low (VIX remains low). Liquidity is tightening (PQ) (see the chart below for several dimensions).

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As the price of Bitcoin continues to rebound, the IV of major-term options is actually decreasing, while Skew is clearly skewed positively. This phenomenon is primarily due to the gradual calming of the military conflict between the United States and Iran, leading to a decline in market concerns about the risk of war, resulting in a significant decrease in the prices of put options. The order book volume and block trade have been relatively balanced, with most trades concentrated in the current month and the following month. The market has undergone a re-adjustment of its positional strategies, and the main participants have reached a consensus on the expected trends for the future – low volatility is becoming the prevailing trend in the market.

The OrderX $BTC Update: 1️⃣ The VRP Wipeout: The 9-point variance risk premium we flagged this week has been completely annihilated. Realized vol surged straight up to match implied vol at 35%. The VRP premium didn't decay—it got paid out. 2️⃣ The Put Skew Reload: 25d Risk Reversals have swung right back to defensive baselines, with the May 29 tenor down to -7.14%. Institutional desks are looking past the local noise and aggressively reloading structural downside protection at a massive discount. The OrderX Verdict: With front-end butterfly metrics flattening out, look to sell the newly cheapened near-term wings and rotate that premium into June calendar spreads to capture the structural skew divergence. Data: @laevitas1 #BTC# #Options# #Trading# #Volatility# #OrderXAI# #Gamma# #VRP# #Skew#

May 8 Options Expiration Data 20,000 BTC options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.73, a max pain point of $79,500, and a notional value of $1.6 billion. 182,000 ETH options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.93, a max pain point of $2,350, and a notional value of $410 million. This week, Bitcoin rose steadily from $75,000 to $82,000 before pulling back last night. Despite the positive price action, market sentiment has remained relatively calm. Major-term options and short-term implied volatility (IV) remained unchanged from last week, while short-term IV saw a slight increase. Bitcoin’s primary short-term IV hovers around 35%, while ETH’s primary short-term IV is near 50%; both medium- and long-term IVs have also seen modest declines. Looking at key options data, Skew remains relatively stable with a very slight increase, and the market’s directional sentiment remains neutral. Only 5% of options expire this week, with extremely low options activity and futures trading volume at historic lows. Open interest stood at approximately 20% at the end of May and 30% at the end of June, while block trades have been relatively inactive—all of which are signals of a consolidation phase. In the second quarter of this year, Bitcoin performed well in terms of both price and market sentiment, but overall market enthusiasm remains subdued. Currently, the focus is primarily on Bitcoin trading, and it makes sense to position for some medium- to long-term options. Additionally, investing in some high-quality altcoins appears to offer good value for money.