Risk appetite among retail investors is through the roof: Call options on US Big Tech stocks now account for ~55% of all new options positions opened by retail investors on a 20-day average basis, near the highest on record. This metric tracks newly initiated call option positions, rather than total trading volume, highlighting the current directional bets of retail investors. This figure has surged +10 percentage points since the late March market bottom. By comparison, the peak during the 2020 pandemic recovery was ~57% and this metric bottomed at ~35% during the 2022 bear market. Retail investors are positioned for more upside in tech.

Interesting (yet obvious) insight I just heard @eladgil say: “There are startup industries where startups should win and incumbent industries where incumbents should win.” He said this in the context of robotics/self-driving cars, but I’m starting to think finance is an incumbent industry and that incumbent equities (post regulatory clarity) offer more asymmetric upside from blockchain tech adoption over pure play tokens. Simple rationale, this tech is a commodity, distribution is the moat.

How to get filthy rich from investing in Physical AI: Almost everyone, even in AI, is underestimating how big Physical AI will be. I think AI with a physical embodiment will eventually do the majority of tasks humans currently do in the physical world AND multiply how much physical work we can produce. It might sound crazy today, but I very clearly see a $100T+ economy here. Contrary to what many people in the field believe, I think a majority of the compute will very clearly live in the cloud, NOT be on-device. Some compute might stay on-device: safety, control, privacy, instant reactions. But the majority of advanced intelligence will live in datacenters. Compute benefits massively from scale. Datacenters are gigantic physical systems specifically optimized around power, cooling, networking and utilization. One pool of compute can serve thousands or millions of devices. On-device compute is the exact opposite: expensive compute dedicated to a single machine, constrained by size, power and cooling. It will never compete with dedicated datacenters on raw compute or cost efficiency. Physical AI therefore doesn't reduce the cloud inference opportunity. It makes it much, much bigger. $NVDA $NBIS $CRWV $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGL $ORCL $TSM $DRAM $SKHY $MU $SNDK will all LOVE Physical AI scaling. The way to play Physical AI is simple: you stay long almost exactly the same AI infra names, because it's the same companies powering it. I do believe there will be a few direct physical infra providers like $OUST that will win certain parts of the BOM and have explosive upside potential through technical moats, IP and the purely explosive growth they can face. But other than that, I think many of the providers will be in a very competitive, low-margin, low-moat battle to be built into these manufacturing processes. I think many will be bad investments. Staying long the compute behind it is simple, sexy and will simply work.

Tech calls are interesting as a way to play upside because while the call skew %'iles are high (+90) the IV ranks are very low <=7. This informs us that calls are cheap relative to the last year of data. $NVDA $SMH $DRAM

$XLK Tech is above 50-day MA - I expect it to be tested on market open today - hopefully bounce up occurs. It is boring atm - give me 10-20% correction so I can buy more or give me 20-30% upside so I can sell some.

Private tech valuations are starting to look very different once you follow the money. DSCVR Agent Skills compared the prediction markets around Anthropic, OpenAI and the broader IPO race. The interesting split: Smart money is aggressively pricing upside for Anthropic. OpenAI still has a huge valuation story, but traders are much more willing to bet on downside there. Same AI boom. Very different conviction. Subscribe:

Dell Technologies $DELL price target raised to $545 from $505 at Wells Fargo Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $545 from $505 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is positive on Dell's upcoming Q2 results. Wells expects server-driven upside and increased FY27 guide driven by better-than-expected second half of the year supply outlook.

The upside potential for $EOSE is literally massive. Price is currently sitting right in my long-term trend reversionzone, and if this works out we could see this stock 10x in a very short time. One of the best looking technical setups in the market right now. Demand is already proven to be there, over $800m backlog should make this a no brainer. The real risk is the capacity buildout. Just like $FLNC, $EOSE has problems scaling and operating production facilities efficiently. However, if this gets resolved, $EOSE could turn into one of the best performing stocks over the next 12 months. For me personally this is a risk I'm willing to take.