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WorkerLucky
@workerlucky777
Bullish on custom silicon 🫦
67 Following    134 Followers
this
There hasn’t been an earnings report this quarter that told me AI was slowing down in any way. Ultimately only price pays, but the numbers we’re seeing are mind boggling.
Can it bounce from that line ? $SPY
I opened X just now after a few hours of inactivity, and guess what? I just saw like 9 bear posts in a row. Honestly, this makes me happy. I've been on X for years, even before this account existed, and I've seen this play out over and over again. The bears come in, make their case, and eventually disappear. Same goes for some of the bulls. And to be fair, their arguments genuinely sound smart and logical. Some of them WILL make you question your thesis, and that's a good thing. Go re-evaluate your thesis and come to your own conclusion. That's how you get stronger conviction to hold through it.
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$MRVL to flip from bearish price action to bullish Marvell should capture 2 prices: AVWAP ($219.46) and 50-day MA ($224.60)
Doesn't mean anything but this is the strongest bounce after $MRVL earnings sell off so far:
$MU $MRVL $NBIS mu is the strongest this time
August was good, let's see what September brings:
Give me $NBIS and $MRVL under $200 this week I want to load more
The winner here is $NVDA, the looser $AVGO. Nvidia wants to cover even custom chips solutions via $MRVL and MediaTek
JUST IN: Nvidia to invest $3 billion in "chipmaker" MediaTek
@aleabitoreddit $NVDA is the winner here - they cover even custom chips via $MRVL and MediaTek
Marvell’s data centre revenue growth accelerated from 27% to 46% year over year in a single quarter. They also raised their fiscal 2028 outlook for the second straight quarter. Eight days earlier, Google took a warrant for roughly 7% of $MRVL. The bookings are accelerating. And Google just bought a bigger seat at the table.
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Looking at this chart - there should be leg down that will break current uptrend and move market to Fear & Extreme Fear or continuing uptrend and leg up to Greed & Extereme Greed. What do you think it is?
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$XLK Tech is above 50-day MA - I expect it to be tested on market open today - hopefully bounce up occurs. It is boring atm - give me 10-20% correction so I can buy more or give me 20-30% upside so I can sell some.
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It is madness how many fake news on X - people do everything to get more impressions. Always cross-check everything here before reacting.
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Trump says will fill the SPR back up with Venezuelan oil
Custom chips that compatible with $NVDA ecosystem, optics/photonics connectivity, memory optics solutions, is there more bullish company under 200B MC? I don't think so $MRVL
I spent the last week rebuilding my $MRVL thesis after Q2 and the latest news with $GOOGL etc. Posting a small summary of it here, the full article can be found in bio/comments. So, the stock fell 10% after earnings, but I came away more positive on the business than I was before the report and surprisingly, Google is only part of the reason. Back in July, my problem with Marvell was fairly simple: I could see the technology platform much more clearly than the shareholder economics. Custom silicon, optics, switching, CXL, SerDes… lots of interesting pieces. What I could not prove was whether those pieces actually worked together commercially. I think we have alot more evidence now and Google is the first big one. The famous $120B figure is NOT backlog. It is the ceiling for qualifying purchases under the warrant agreement. What interests me much more is what Google is actually working with Marvell on such as accelerators, NICs, storage controllers, memory interfaces and near-memory compute. This looks alot like a platform relashionship. Then came Q2 this thursday. Revenue reached $2.74B (+37% YoY), Data Center grew 46%, FY27 revenue guidance moved to roughly $12B and FY28 to $18B. But the biggest change in my thesis is probably scale-up and connectivity. Three months ago Marvell was talking about roughly $300M of FY28 scale-up optics revenue. Now scale-up optics is a significant contributor to the entire $1.5B FY28 guidance raise, with NPO developing alongside CPO, switching expanding and multiple customer engagements emerging. Connectivity may actually be carrying more of the Marvell story than I expected. We also learned something important about Google: revenue covered by the agreement through FY28 is already included in existing custom guidance. So adding billions of “new Google revenue” to FY28 would be double counting. The interesting part starts in FY29, where management says the previous $10B+ custom silicon outlook now has clear upside. CXL also moved higher on my list. Marvell says it is already being deployed across multiple hyperscalers at very high volumes, with memory scarcity accelerating adoption. The financial side is improving too. Gross margin will fall as custom grows, but operating leverage is currently more than compensating: operating margin hit 36.6%, with management expecting 38–40% from Q4 and toward the high end in FY28. I am still watching the denominator closely. Diluted shares are now around 921M, the Google warrant can add another ~59M shares, and we still do not have enough disclosure on the warrant accounting. So my old concern has not disappeared: Revenue growth eventually has to become EPS and cash flow per share. But compared with July, I now have much more evidence that Marvell’s technology platform can turn into an economically meaningful one.
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