Carnegie Endowment's @SamWinterLevy explains the inversion between the US and China in the AI race: America needs power, China needs chips "Right now, China produces 2.5x as much power as the US. Power is not the constraint for them. The constraint is just access to chips, in part because of US export controls, in part because of the difficulties of building out a domestic supply chain. Power is not gonna be the bottleneck for them." "The underlying source of power is obviously an issue. That's part of the appeal of partnering closely with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They have a lot of access to energy, and that's a natural calling card when they're pitching US companies. Fast time to power because they don't have to worry about NIMBYism or permitting issues." "The UAE actually tops our ranking of countries in terms of how quickly they could build a data center before the war. Obviously, the war raises big questions about that. But access to underlying power is definitely an issue that helps some countries move faster than others." @CarnegieEndow

A quick cheat sheet and a long explanation for yield trading. Markets The inversion of Implied APY and PT value can be trippy sometimes. The idea to wrap your head around is: The lower a PT's value is, the higher the fixed rate. Meaning a token that goes from 0.95 → 1.00 has a higher fixed rate than a token that goes from 0.98 → 1.00. The end point is always the same, and the market fluctuates how far from 1.00 it can go during the maturity. Limit Orders This is just a reminder on which direction to set limit orders if you're not trying to size in at the current market price. The typical reasoning is to get a better entry, so for YTs you want the lowest IA, and for PTs you want the highest. Liquidity This one I have some more thoughts around. First, I believe that providing liquidity in a general wide range is under the assumption that the market is pricing the asset's yield relatively correctly and that you want to capture fees in the fluctuations. You would want to exit the LP around the same implied APY or lower than you entered if there are no plans to hold to maturity. The directional option is to provide liquidity when the implied APY is higher than what you believe is the fair price, so you can capture the fees and profit on the LP's value increase as the implied APY drops. This is because the LP will be converting its fixed-rate portion into the underlying token, almost DCAing out of a PT position that is growing in USD value. Being in a full PT position (higher than your range) presents a negative PnL because your position is essentially a DCA into PTs and the PT's current market value in USD is lower than your entry. Think of it as buying PTs at 0.98, 0.97, 0.96 and the current market value is 0.96. You would simply have to wait until maturity to capture the profits.

Santiago Roel Santos (@santiagoroel) returns to TOKEN2049 Singapore. Founder and CEO of @inversion_cap. His pitch: Buy boring durable businesses and make them more efficient with technology. He’s on the frontier in exploring how crypto fits into making enterprises more efficient. Tickets:

this is the real problem most people just don't realize the scale of the fertility collapse. population pyramid inversion in almost all countries and old people massively outnumbering kids is THE cataclysm you won't see the tsunami coming or the meteor in the sky or people dying in a pandemic, but that doesn't mean it’s less existential In the US, if the current fertility trajectory continues, for every 100 people today you'll be left with 25 people in a century. that's like having a pandemic that kills 75% of people worse than your “cataclysmic” bubonic plague. but it happens slower and for self centered people it’s impossible to grasp. the tragedy of modern man is that he has been removed from history and for him nothing exists but today and maybe tomorrow, that’s a real catastrophe. “it doesn’t affect me personally so it’s not a problem” what’s even worse is that the economy might even keep doing great because of AI and robots. the market will boom while humans bring themselves to extinction. you can have rising GDP per capita and a dying civilization at the same time things always get better until they don't

Reminder: Francesca Albanese has been condemned for antisemitism, Holocaust inversion, or violating the U.N. Code of Conduct by: 🇺🇸 U.S. 🇬🇧 U.K. 🇮🇹 Italy 🇮🇱 Israel 🇱🇻 Latvia 🇫🇷 France 🇪🇪 Estonia 🇨🇦 Canada 🇨🇿 Czechia 🇭🇺 Hungary 🇩🇪 Germany 🇦🇷 Argentina 🇳🇱 Netherlands

Why The Falling Yield Curve Is A Big Deal 🔊 On Wednesday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough explained why a yield curve heading toward inversion matters and why he expects the Fed to end up panic cutting into the slowdown. "It's a signal that the economy is slowing." The US sits in Q3 2026 with GDP still running 3.5% to 4%, but a curve collapsing like this says growth is set to roll from here. The 10 and 30-year yields are not rising as fast as the Fed is taking the 2-year up. So the Fed keeps tightening into a slowing economy and perpetuates the slowdown. "They're going to start panic cutting interest rates." That is what happened in 2008, a different cycle running the same rhythm and rhyme, what McCullough calls a similar set in fractal math. Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily macro insights you won't find anywhere else:

Every security company: “how do I stop the bad guy?” @anshublog: “how do I make my data useless to them?” That inversion is the whole premise of @SkyflowAPI , and Anshu thinks it's a $100 billion company. In the podcast we get into: - Common misconceptions about security in AI - How Skyflow rewrote its problem statement when LLMs arrived - What he learned working with Marc Benioff at Salesforce Listen to the full conversation here: