Echoes of the early 1980s US policy mix? With no signs of meaningful fiscal consolidation, markets are increasingly turning to the Federal Reserve to counter price shocks. (Please see my FT column from a week ago for details.) The longer this dynamic persists, the more likely the overall policy mix is to resemble that of the early 1980s: overly reliant on monetary tightening while lacking fiscal restraint—a combination that tends to bolster the US dollar and pressure interest-rate-sensitive sectors, both headwinds to balanced economic growth. In terms of the historical comparison, the silver lining is that today’s positive productivity shock is likely to materialize much faster than that seen then, which became effective in the 1990s. #economy# #markets# #growth# #federalreserve# #monetarypolicy# #fiscalpolicy# #budget#

StreetAccount Event Preview: September FOMC meeting • September FOMC meeting ends Wednesday (16-Sep) with release of policy statement (14:00 ET) and Chair Warsh press conference (14:30 ET). Sell side previews broadly expect a 25 bp hike following last week's August CPI report, which did not show the disinflationary trend that some Fed officials called necessary to hold. Previews said policy statement will remain broadly unchanged, continuing to focus on justifying or describing the rate decision and shying away from explicit forward guidance. Street mixed on whether the dot plot would show one hike this year or two, though Warsh (again) expected to offer few details on Fed's reaction function or forward guidance. Given mixed views on disinflation trajectory, economists mixed on rate path ahead. #FOMC# #FederalReserve# #FedMeeting# #FedRateHike# #MarketUpdate# #Macro# #Disinflation# #MonetaryPolicy# #CPI# #InterestRates# Gain immediate access to unparalleled insights with #StreetAccount#:

Monetary policy is made in an increasingly uncertain environment. Join @DanKatzIMF, Emmanuel Moulin of @banquedefrance, Martin Schlegel of @SNB_BNS, and Olayemi Cardoso of @cenbank on Oct. 15 to discuss lessons for effective policymaking and communication.

Monetary Policy Update: Charter Stimulus and Branch Reductions Standard has been incredibly efficient at bringing tokens back into the protocol. Burns are far outpacing issuance and nearly $1M has been deployed into buybacks and ETH-side liquidity. With the upcoming launchpad and liquidity pools, Standard continues to build toward its larger vision. While market conditions and activity on Robinhood Chain are outside the protocol's control, issuance appears to be heading toward another cut to 0.2×, the floor. This is the mechanism working as intended, tightening emissions when market activity slows. However, the protocol's efficiency has allowed it to accumulate a significant surplus of STANDARD through POL fees, putting it in a unique position to support long-term Charter holders despite broader market conditions. As part of this issuance cut, the number of branches available per auction will be reduced to 25, further slowing the growth of future issuance. To reward that long-term commitment, the protocol will also distribute a portion of its accumulated surplus as a one time bonus to eligible existing branches, bringing their payout to the equivalent of approximately 0.7× issuance for that distribution. Eligibility will be limited to Charters that have purchased at least one branch through open-market auctions, demonstrating long-term commitment to the protocol. Claim is live on the site's announcements. The issuance multiplier will still fall to 0.2× and every token distributed will come from what the protocol has already earned.

Monetary policy does not travel only through borrowing costs or the sectors that households touch first. New Dallas Fed research shows it also moves through the web of supplier relationships that ties industries together.