It wouldn't surprise me if the output of the Federal Reserve’s five task forces, along with the broader reforms led by Kevin Warsh, becomes a global blueprint for central banking. Already, Chair Warsh’s pushback against what “forward guidance” has devolved into is already gaining traction abroad. #economy# #markets# #federalreserve# #reform#

Flying under many radars for now, but probably not for long: The Japanese Yen has weakened back to 159 per U.S. dollar (CNBC chart), approaching the established FX intervention zone. This matters far beyond Japan for a key reason right now: Japanese foreign exchange intervention typically involves selling US securities to buy Yen, potentially adding yield pressures to an already sensitive Treasury market. #economy# #markets# #japan# #yen# #bonds# #yields#

With yields edging higher again this morning, the entire US Treasury yield curve from 5- to 30-year maturities is now trading above 5%. (Image from the @FT below.) #economy# #markets# #bonds# #yields#

This old photo, which just popped up on my phone, remains one of my absolute favorites: walking my young daughter to school -- something that, prior to a major career course correction in 2014, I simply didn't do enough. #daughter# #fatherdaughterlove# #fatherdaughter#

Three of my takeaways from this Financial Times reporting (attached) on record bond issuance by emerging economies: It adds at the margin to pressures on global bond yields, even though the overall issuance volumes remain significantly smaller than those coming from advanced economies and tech companies. It has been impacted by atypical issuance from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as they work to re-equip and expand their energy supply and infrastructure networks. It also reflects a healthy appetite among investors, bolstered by the multi-year reforms that many, though not all, emerging economies have pursued to strengthen their economic and financial fundamentals. #economy# #markets# #em# #emergingmarkets# #bonds# #yields#

Why the Treasury Yield Surge Shouldn't Be as Big a Surprise as it is: It is striking how many market participants have been surprised by the recent surge in US yields. The fundamental drivers have been evident for some time: Borrowing plans for major issuers, such as the government and large corporates (particularly tech), have been well telegraphed. The Federal Reserve has been signaling strong economic activity. The reasons behind the declining willingness and capacity of some traditional holders/buyers of US bonds have been well covered. The challenging quest to define the endpoint for the US/Israel-Iran conflict has been widely debated. What is playing a far larger role than it should is psychological anchoring: The collective mindset shaped by more than a decade of artificially low, repressed yields following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. #economy# #markets# #yields# #bonds#

This sharp rise in Treasury yields—including 11 basis points for the benchmark 10-year, as shown in the Bloomberg chart and table below—is being driven primarily by domestic indicators (data confirming accelerating US economic activity), and to a much lesser extent, external factors (higher oil prices). Needless to say, it's pulling yields higher worldwide. #economy# #markets# #yields#

From the @FT: "Surging government bond yields are a “major concern” to countries’ public finances given the mounting share of spending being consumed by debt interest, the OECD said on Wednesday." This warning comes as the OECD raises its inflation forecasts and warns about interest rate pressures. #exonomy# #markets# @OECD

Many of you have heard me say for a while now that earnings from tech companies in particular have acted as a powerful shield for stock markets, deflecting what has been a notable series of external shocks. This chart from John Authers illustrates the point. #economy# #markets# #tech# #investing# #investors#

From the Bloomberg article on "SoftBank Offers Record Yields on Jumbo Junk Bonds in AI Push:" "The flood of AI funding in global financial markets, however, has made some bond investors uneasy." #economy# #markets# #tech# #bonds#

The link to this morning's conversation on CNBC. Thank you, Carl, David, and Sara, for having me on the show. #economy# #markets# @CNBC @carlquintanilla @davidfaber @SaraEisen @SquawkStreet

Further signs of UK fiscal pressure ahead of next month’s budget: Driven partly by higher debt servicing costs and inflation, UK public sector borrowing hit £18.3 billion in August. This came in above the £15.5 billion consensus forecast and widened the overshoot against the OBR’s projections (Reuters chart below). All of which underscores the limited fiscal headroom facing the Labour government ahead of its debut budget. #economy# #uk# #markets# #budget#

Look for four competing visions for the global order at UNGA this week: A modified, US-led model adapted for current geopolitical conditions; A Chinese-asserted alternative positioning Beijing as the primary guardian of multilateralism; A middle-power alternative driven by pragmatic, flexible, and issue-based coalitions; and Continuing fragmentation, leading to a more transactional and decentralized global landscape. #economy# #markets# #UN# #UNGA#

Via the @FT, my thoughts on why central bank rate hikes should not be “the only game in town” when it comes to addressing today's inflation challenge. The real remedies lie not with central banks but with governments: addressing supply bottlenecks and pursuing greater fiscal consolidation (which would also ease pressure on long-run yields by creating more room for the funding of innovations). #economy# #markets# #centralbanks# #inflation#