StreetAccount Event Preview: September FOMC meeting • September FOMC meeting ends Wednesday (16-Sep) with release of policy statement (14:00 ET) and Chair Warsh press conference (14:30 ET). Sell side previews broadly expect a 25 bp hike following last week's August CPI report, which did not show the disinflationary trend that some Fed officials called necessary to hold. Previews said policy statement will remain broadly unchanged, continuing to focus on justifying or describing the rate decision and shying away from explicit forward guidance. Street mixed on whether the dot plot would show one hike this year or two, though Warsh (again) expected to offer few details on Fed's reaction function or forward guidance. Given mixed views on disinflation trajectory, economists mixed on rate path ahead. #FOMC# #FederalReserve# #FedMeeting# #FedRateHike# #MarketUpdate# #Macro# #Disinflation# #MonetaryPolicy# #CPI# #InterestRates# Gain immediate access to unparalleled insights with #StreetAccount#:

Despite a calming Fed meeting last week, global markets enter the new week with a rebound in sovereign yields and rising energy pressures. We also have high-stakes diplomacy at the Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines of UNGA, alongside an extensive data calendar and the return of Fedspeak. For details, please use one of the two links below to access my weekly look at the global economy and markets: #economy# #markets#

Threadguy explains why Bessent has backed the Fed into a corner where both options end in chaos "Oil is going parabolic, inflation has been over the Fed's 2% target for 65 months straight, we're fully at war, and what Waller is probably supposed to do is hike. But the problem is Bessent basically backed himself into a corner and said, if you hike, we're both fucked. If you do nothing, just you're fucked. Pick one." "And so if Waller doesn't hike, the market goes crazy because nobody can take him seriously, he's been talking this hawkish game the whole time. If he does hike, we're both fucked. FOMC is electric again, no one has any idea what's going to happen, and there hasn't been a Fed meeting that actually mattered since 2022. Every single one of them matters now."

Two markets are pricing the same Fed meeting and they disagree. CME FedWatch has a 25bp increase at 51.9%. Our book has it at 41.6%, with no change ahead at 57%. Ten points apart on the September 16 FOMC. Neither side is pricing a cut. If you think the rate traders are right, that side is on sale.