Burry is short NBIS at $190 at year 4 of a 50 year capex cycle. Does he cover at $250? $500? $1000? Higher? Risk management is hard for non-professionals.
$NBIS
I was thinking about what would actually make me sell my NBIS shares.
Simplified, these are the five things that keep me honest, with how healthy each one looks today (1 = bad / 5= good):
+ Financing gets too expensive (3/5)
NBIS still has to raise roughly $250B to build out its 5 GW, and only about 20% is secured. If converts and credit get much more expensive, or the market stops taking their paper, growth slows or the share count balloons.
+ Dilution outruns growth (4/5)
Some dilution is the price of the build-out, and I'm fine with that. What would break the thesis is ARR per share stalling while the share count keeps climbing.
+ Pricing rolls over (5/5)
The bull case leans on new contracts at $20–25M per MW and GPU prices that are still rising. If contract pricing or on-demand GPU prices start falling, the economics behind every gigawatt shrink.
+ Customers stop paying up front (4/5)
Prepayments covering 50–60% of capex tell me customers can't find this capacity elsewhere. If those shrink, demand is cooling.
+ Power slips (3/5)
Contracted power that doesn't come online on time is revenue that doesn't show up, and power is the slowest input in the whole stack.
Demand is the easy part right now.
The weakest scores are on financing and delivery, and that's where I'll be watching.
$NBIS bulls and bears this is a call for you to share your take.