$MU $SNDK $NBIS $IREN I had the chance to dig into Nomura's memory team note on the midterms. No federal moratorium. Any brakes come at the state level, and not one governor-elect in a major data center state has pledged a permanent ban. 2027 is basically locked in. The capacity coming online next year is already under construction. What's actually at risk is 2028: about 7% of global new capacity could slip, around 11% in their bear case. Delayed, not cancelled. Delays also push GPU rental prices higher, and those are already rising… just checkout NBIS spot prices. Pricier compute pulls forward upgrades to newer GPUs, so a slower buildout can actually be good for chip demand. Memory isn't walking into a glut either. Long-term supply agreements let memory makers adjust supply two-plus years out, so the 2028 hit looks milder than the market fears. Demand doesn't vanish it moves to friendlier states and overseas, runs existing data centers harder, and pays more per GW. The real risk is a sentiment discount until the Texas session ends in May 2027, mostly for leveraged names with big Texas exposure. All in all scarce compute just got scarcer. If you own capacity that's already live, and the chips and memory going into it, you're in a great position to capitalize. Bullish - Ren ⚡

Call me surprised. I’m making a shopping list for the coming week and I found that after Thursday's brutal drop, the Nasdaq ($QQQ) has outperformed the S&P 500 ($SPY) by just 9 points over the last FIVE years. +66% vs +57%. That's barely more than 1 point a year, for the part of the market that's supposedly in a bubble. And you think we're in a bubble? 💀 Tech is trading at 17x forward earnings vs 18x for the S&P 500. It's cheaper relative to the market than it's been for most of the last decade.

$NBIS Rosenblatt just called the blue wave a "relative non-event" for $NBIS, I 100% agree The two big data center states that flipped were Texas and Georgia. Nebius's biggest planned US expansions? Missouri, Pennsylvania and South Carolina. And even in Texas, the governor-elect says her pause is for future data centers. The ones already approved get to finish, which covers most of what's being built there for 2027. So the stock got dumped along with the Texas names... without actually having the Texas risk… talk about the market being irrational If Texas does slow down new permits, the AI demand doesn't just vanish. It goes looking for powered land somewhere else, and Nebius already has sites in Alabama, Missouri and Pennsylvania.

$NBIS $MU $LITE $SNDK $NVDA This is a great way to visualize Thursdays, Nov 5, carnage. TL;DR: The selling was about positioning. The businesses didn’t change on Thursday, and once everyone has de-risked this hard, the next big flow is them buying back... Don’t expect a V-shaped bounce on Monday, but we’re closer to the bottom than to the top. Here’s more detail on what happened: + Hedge funds cut their net bets 5% in a single day, one of the five biggest drops since 2010. Their net exposure is now in the lowest 10% of the last 16 years. + Since June they’ve shrunk their books by about 11%, the most in at least a decade. + They’re now underweight AI relative to the market, even though AI is still 32% of what they hold. + Leveraged ETFs had to sell $57B of stock, the biggest rebalancing on record going back to 2007. + Retail dumped the second-most in the first 90 minutes since 2016. + Everything is starting to move together, which usually means the de-risking is spreading.

$NVDA $NBIS $MU $BE $SNDK $MRVL So you're telling me tech is trading below the S&P 500...at 17x forward earnings against 18x for the whole index. That's below its own 10-year and 30-year median. Relative to the market, tech has been more expensive than this about 70% of the time over the past decade. Meanwhile the "safe" stuff is the expensive stuff. Consumer Staples trade at 24x, in the 97th percentile of the last 10 years. Health Care is at 20x, in the 95th. And you think we're in a bubble? Bruh…

Citrini update on the $NBIS short, that’s been so controversial. “One quick swap we are making is $IREN for $NBIS on the short leg of the neocloud pair mostly to derisk on earnings (IREN announced and popped harder than the sector today, NBIS earnings is next week). IREN is also more stretched in balance sheet, which matters since financing reflexivity is a huge part of this.”

$SOXX Closed my 10X SOXL long to pocket the overnight win. I want to see a clear direction in regular market hours before going back in. Still think this goes up more, but capturing some wins is important to keep playing for longer.

$SOXX For those interested I left a 10x SOXL long… You know just for the thrill… Of a mega bounce… I went short 10x SOXL yesterday…. After the Citrini article… Do what you want with that information NFA.

As I just posted, you cannot stop the advance of AI. If you try to pause AI data centers here, plenty of places want them built, like Malaysia or Kazakhstan, and India & many others would surely be delighted to have these investments too. Be smart, America, don’t mess this up!

Oil down? Semis down. Oil up? Semis down. Apple up? Semis down. Apple down? Semis down. Mags up? Semis down. Mags down? Semis down. “We have 0 supply to meet demand until 2030+” semis down. Semi up? Semis down. Hope this helps!

Meritz Securities (South Korea): Genuine demand reflected in orders received by memory chipmakers for 2027 and 2028 far exceeds their supply capacity. Even if the Democrats’ blue wave leads to some delays and adjustments, the supply shortage is unlikely to change materially. This year, the memory order fulfillment rate—available supply capacity relative to order volume—has remained in the low-to-mid 80% range, driving sharp increases in selling prices. The shortage is expected to worsen in 2027, with the fulfillment rate falling to around 80%. Meanwhile, during a recent visit to South Korea, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman asked SK hynix and Samsung Electronics to supply specialty memory, including HBM, for 2027–2030 in volumes beyond what they can accommodate.

Spoke to a few large semiconductor and infrastructure CEOs and consensus is if the build slows in the U.S. the demand outside the U.S. is more than sufficient. Forecasts remain in tact. Location is now fungible. 👀