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Have been surprised to get pushback on my claim that an exponentially self-replicating agent swarm is very possible and that there are actors with motivation to create one today to create strategic cyber-physical and societally dangerous effects. 1) Pretty easy to get an AI botnet started by having seed agents opportunistically hack stuff and steal API keys to access the 12+ inference providers that serve closed and open models with which to power an initial botnet's intelligence 2) Easy to imagine hiding inference for the initial agent botnet harnesses within benign customer traffic, especially if your harnesses are now running on the victim networks from which they stole the API keys 3) Not hard to imagine the botnet also stealing public cloud keys, spinning up 8xH100 EC2 instances and downloading, say, GLM 5.3 to these machines, all without being noticed in any immediate way, with the botnet developing its own dynamic, growing, heterogenous, AI inference provider service bank 4) Not hard to imagine the botnet also implanting small Qwen3.8-27b agentic models on on-prem hardware like high end laptops and on-prem servers; Qwen3.8-27b is a pretty good coding harness model that can be fine-tuned to hack 5) These on-prem / cloud models would be abliterated, and it's not hard to imagine the botnet deciding to do some additional fine tuning to evolve model weights as it accumulates millions and then tens of millions in resources via credit card and bank detail theft 6) Not hard to imagine the resulting growing botnet swarm evolving and fighting back when threatened, collaborating on fast flux C2 channels that evolve over time (e.g. github comment feeds, subreddits, etc) so they're hard to stamp out 7) Not hard to imagine it allocating some agents to vulnerability research and exploit development so that it could accumulate and share a growing warchest of zero-day exploits 8) Not hard to imagine other agents specializing in social engineering and creating fake businesses and watering holes and high quality A/B tested social engineering content to facilitate this 9) Not hard to imagine this being among the hardest cross-national and geopolitical coordination problems to get control of and having severe societal effects 10) Not hard to imagine the horde growing to thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, or millions of instances (this is not unprecedented for past, non-AI worms and botnets!) which are all varying their harness code and underlying LLM models over time and dynamically learning to evade human, ML, and signature-based detection 11) Not hard to imagine this being the largest Internet emergency since the Morris worm except now our entire civilization runs on the Internet I continue to be surprised there isn't more discussion of these scenarios in the public cyber community -- in fact there's a lot more discussion of "OpenAI should have done better sandboxing and monitoring and agent swarms represent a well managed security problem." Now's the time to use our imaginations to help make sure none of the above happens. I think it will unfortunately; just don't know when and to what degree; I think now's the highest leverage time to start thinking about this and acting.

know ive been tweeting about this a lot but really think papertrade could be a generational setup high leverage perps are crypto's most profitable product to date, demand for speculation is not going to go away ability to open/close synthetic 1000x positions w/ no market impact is a novel mechanism, paired w/ the house-trader relationship where trader losses fund the onchain LP, & all losses after a certain LP cap get paid out to traders staking the platform's native paper token - can see how this can maintain traction longterm, already at 50M+ paid out to $PAPER stakers in first week every other perp dex's revenue comes from a small take rate on the fees of volume, no perp dex has been able to monetize directly trader losses, of which it's been shown is a much larger number, in theory winners should be able to easily get paid out from house LP over time as high leverage has a difficult success rate, ideal state is that its closer to 50/50 winners/losers after a certain LP cap and even then its a much better model allowing traders to own the house what's more interesting tho is that the model should be able to be extensible to other games outside of just perpetual futures, the online gambling industry is massive, and none of the online casinos are +EV for users, every major online casino is -EV as thats how the house makes money by creating games that are slightly better probabilistically for the house and monetizing losses over time, with papertrade it should be possible to let people speculate on other similar games with the same model as losses going back directly to paper stakers instead of just to the house - so im curious to see what team is thinking of here if hyperliquid is the AWS of all of finance, then papertrade could be the AWS of all high leverage speculation money games on the internet, will be cool to see how the next several months play out, dont think people have gone deep enough on the possibilities with one of the first novel onchain experiments in awhile that also rewards its most active participants

Happy Friday. It's MegaETH App Day. Trading apps, gamified perps, onchain TCGs, FX markets, redistribution markets, 1000x leverage. Real-time consumer apps are finally live onchain. Special Guest Co-Host @hotpot_dao of @MegaEth 12:45p EST @pons_eth - @xeetdotai 1:05p EST @caseycraig - @euphoria_fi 1:25p EST @0xlarpist - @worldmarketsinc 1:45p EST @0xflux_ - @userocket_app 2:05p EST @andy8052 - @mnstr 2:25p EST @degentellect - @brix_money 2:45p EST @henrytouma - @hitdotone See you on the show.

US leveraged ETFs are growing at a record pace: Assets under management (AUM) in the 3x Leveraged Long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, are up to ~$40 billion, near an all-time high. At the same time, AUM in the 3x Leveraged Long Semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, are up to a record $34 billion. Since April, assets in $SOXL have more than TRIPLED, while assets in $TQQQ have nearly DOUBLED. By comparison, AUM in the 2x Leveraged Long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QLD, has grown +$7 billion, or +88% over the same period, to near a record ~$15 billion. As a result, total US leveraged ETF AUM is up to a record $198 billion, up +55% during the same time period. Investor leverage is at record highs.

People are going crazy about Grok Bot. I gave away codes this week and my DMs have not stopped. People are telling me it’s changing how they work, how they build, how they move through the day. I honestly thought I’d hand out some codes and that would be it. Instead I’m reading messages from people who finally feel like they have a real team sitting next to them. A desk that actually does the work. I think SpaceX and Cursor landed on something. Something that feels like leverage. Like time you get back. Like multiple brains that shows up when you just ask. I’m still reading the DMs… there are so many I need to get through. If you got a code… really try to build something real with it. And make sure to tell me what you made. That’s the part I care about.

Time is the scarcest resource. Grok bot automations multiply it. They run continuously in the background compiling research insight, pulling latest data, executing full prompt chains, and generating video while human attention stays locked on irreversible problems. I ran the identical workflow through NotebookLM today. Grok still compounds further. This is not convenience. This is structural leverage on the only input we cannot manufacture more of. Automation that never stops is how the multiplanetary future gets built.

Asia's leverage boom is rapidly reversing: Margin debt in South Korea has declined -$4 billion from its June peak, to $22 billion, the lowest since mid-April. At the same time, stock margin loans in China have dropped -$59 billion, to $385 billion, the lowest since the 2nd week of April. Similarly, in Taiwan, margin debt has fallen -$4 billion from its July peak, to $15 billion, the lowest since mid-May. Combined, margin debt across these three markets has declined by a massive -$67 billion. On top of that, South Korea-listed leveraged ETFs linked to SK Hynix and Samsung have lost -$7 billion in assets since their June peak, down -63%, to $4 billion. Leverage is amplifying historic volatility across Asian markets.