TIMELINES AND EXPECTATIONS: "The point is, [the war] is going to continue all the way through the election, and be an issue for him all the way through the election. The Republicans who are hoping this will be over by the Fourth of July... hope it will be over by the Labor Day. And now they know they’re going to have it until the election." @ByronYork

let’s talk about timelines for a sec: - memory companies are signing multi-year LTAs. - neoclouds are signing 15-year leases. - hyperscalers are building 41 GW through 2030. - Google literally issued a 100-year bond. the bottlenecks (GPU, CPU, memory, photonics, GaN/SiC, etc) will continue and imo only get worse. retail tends to get overly emotional over a few red days and decide the AI trade is over. Jensen will clear the air tonight and we can all go back to being normal. position:

AI is shortening production timelines, but @alexmashrabov says that is only stage one. He predicts AI-native IP will emerge by the end of 2026 and that the next Netflix-scale media company will be AI-first. Hear the @higgsfield co-founder’s full take:

Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter. - "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes. At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028. - "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month. TLDR: - SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027 - Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028 Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent. Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

What happens when software development timelines drop from 16–18 weeks to just a few days? Natarajan Venkataraman, Senior Director for AI Solutions at @Cognizant Moment, shares how Cognizant uses Google Workspace, Gemini Enterprise, and AI agents to transform how teams build and deliver solutions. Watch how they made it happen →