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Kevin Xu
@kevinxu
CEO @alpha_ai. Net worth $10,727,528.95. Trades in highlights. Subscribe for realtime alerts.
3.6K Following    208.9K Followers
especially in these volatile times, who you listen to matters a lot. @aleabitoreddit = voice of reason, bottleneck etf @michaelsikand = made $150k on $SONY, abs chad @ChrisCamillo = cool unc w/ decades of exp @kevinxu = all in king w/ new challenge account @damnang2 = best semi researcher @LIWEI_TWCapital = best taiwan researcher @ParadisLabs = best market analysis @pequityresearch = best earnings breakdowns @CKCapitalxx = retail's fave retail trader @TheBigBerbowski = calls it like it is @amitisinvesting = daily recaps @StockSavvyShay = the modern cnbc @ShaneStoffer = best financial entertainer @WheelieInvestor = best small trader @Dick_Capital = best substack
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we're fucked. absolutely fucked. the ai trade is over. we all top blasted and holding bags now. i can't believe it. how could we have been so wrong. this market makes no sense. my spleen hurts. i haven't seen green in such a long time. i miss money. i miss smiling. i miss sleeping not checking my phone every 1 min. i miss waking up happy. i should've just stayed in cash like a good boy. im like icarus flew too close to the sun. my ego got the better of me. there is no alpha. only luck. lady fortuna has left us to fend for ourselves. faith does not work. praying does not work. i am tired. hedgies are waging war and we are caught in the middle. how do you survive this. when will it end.
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most people won't recognize a giga-bounce until it's too late
agreed. full port $AAOX in my challenge account for the giga-bounce. don't fade me anon.
I feel like markets are seeing a lot of forced liquidations and panic selling right now. You have peers like $LITE sold out completely into 2029, and are starting negotiations for 2030. So seeing a company like $AAOI now worth $5.7B despite all their laser/transceiver/ELSFP capacity coming online + demand visibility reminds me of July
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we're all out here getting murdered and togi just mogging us with his gambling skills
we’re all fighting for our lives out here while togi is about to become a millionaire because of a dream he had
fucking legend
togi goes from full port calls to full port puts 30 mins later $MRNA gets halted on the way down we are witnessing the greatest trader in finX history
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Sold the puts that were ITM. Leaving the rest. Not financial advice this is fucking insanity. Based on inverse dream method. Don’t copy me
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togi goes from full port calls to full port puts 30 mins later $MRNA gets halted on the way down we are witnessing the greatest trader in finX history
HALTED????? LET IT DUMP
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im really really sorry everyone for this post
Prepare yourself for everything to bounce back to ATHs.
I’m starting a new early-stage AI fund, doing what I love: partnering with founders from company formation on bold bets, long before consensus. The fund’s LPs will include Sequoia, Jeff Dean, Sachin Katti, Philip Wong (my Stanford professor and Chief Scientist adviser to TSMC), and others whose work has shaped our industry and how I think about AI’s future. I’ll remain a partner at Sequoia and keep serving on my boards on Sequoia’s behalf. Sequoia has been my home for the past 11 years. I joined as the youngest investor the firm had ever hired. I grew up here. Through years of intense debate and shared work, I found lifelong mentors and friends who took me under their wing and taught me this craft. They taught me to aim high and take big swings. I’ll carry that into what I build: outsized ambition, relentless truth-seeking and curiosity, and a refusal to become complacent. Working alongside founders has made me want to build something of my own: a firm shaped from day one around the convictions I’ve developed over the past decade. Life has taught me not to take time for granted. This is how I want to spend mine. Why now We’re seeing a new way of building companies in today’s AI era. Research and products often advance together. A breakthrough can open a market or accelerate a business far faster than expected. Some companies require extraordinary capital and compute early on. Others reach meaningful scale with remarkably small teams. The rules for how big these businesses can get, and how fast, are being rewritten. But early on, the technology is unproven, the resources required enormous, and the vision seemingly implausible. This is what I love most: seeing the potential right from the beginning, and helping founders realize their full scale of ambition. More than ever, it starts with an extreme willingness to believe early, with bold, independent conviction in a founder’s technical insight before any product or market validation. Then, it means helping founders take the biggest swings, giving the rare, long-term patience to see those bets through uncertainty, ambiguity, and turbulence, and serving as a level head when the stakes are highest. I learned this kind of partnership at Sequoia. It’s the foundation of the firm I’m building. Believing before consensus My fascination with AI’s potential took root at Stanford in the early-to-mid 2010s, studying computer science and working in Andrew Ng’s lab. The friendships I formed connected me to a community whose people and ideas would help shape modern AI and build some of our generation’s defining companies. What stayed with me was the gap between what those people saw was possible and what the wider world could imagine. I’m drawn to founders pursuing ambitions that sound impossible today. I start with a simple question: “What if everything goes right?” Then we work backward together to make it happen. In 2023, Deepak and Abhinav set out to build a general-purpose robot brain at @SkildAI, before physical AI was a consensus bet. Their sim-to-real breakthroughs gave me conviction where earlier robotics approaches had fallen short. But the data flywheel required deployment at scale. We made commercialization as urgent as research and brought in strategic partners like NVIDIA and SoftBank to support the ambition. Three years in, Skild is advancing the frontier of physical AI with nine figures in annualized revenue. In 2024, Ioannis and Misha founded @reflection_ai with an insight into scaling reinforcement learning. As that grew into the ambition to build a Western frontier lab for open models, the hard question was how a startup competes with labs spending tens of billions. An introduction to NVIDIA and many compute calls and recruiting events later, the team has built Beam, now one of the leading US open models. In 2025, Anna and Azalia, the co-creators of AlphaChip, founded @RicursiveAI to design models and hardware together. From day one, we made early customers and ecosystem partners a priority. Today, they are showing order-of-magnitude improvements on real workloads, working with some of the industry’s most consequential players, and reaching a defining inflection point. The ambition keeps growing as these companies scale. @linear has always had a kind of magic to it. Now it’s the system a new generation of AI companies builds on, for teams and agents alike. @tavus saw early that we’d one day talk to AI the way we talk to each other. Today, it’s building the human computing interface for a world of AI colleagues. @Mach_Industries began as hydrogen experiments in an MIT dorm room. It has since become one of the most exciting next-generation defense companies. Making the ambition possible Being a first believer is only the beginning. Compute falls through. A deep-pocketed incumbent makes your mission its top priority. A breakthrough changes the opportunity and the capital required overnight. These are stomach-churning moments, and early belief carries a responsibility to help make the bet work. This is the partnership I love: turning the full ambition into concrete steps. Raising capital, securing compute and strategic partners, recruiting exceptional people, and winning the first customers together. Thinking several moves ahead while solving what’s in front of us. And as breakthroughs open new possibilities, helping founders dream even bigger. Thank you To the founders I’ve worked with: thank you for trusting me and Sequoia to be your first partner and first believer. It’s been the joy of a lifetime, and I can’t wait to keep building together. Thank you to Alfred and Pat for your leadership of Sequoia and your support of my next chapter. To Roelof, for bringing me into Sequoia and believing in me from the beginning. Alfred and Roelof, you have been mentors in investing and in life. So much of what I know, and the investor I’ve become, comes from your guidance and generosity over the years. To Bill, for the close partnership and wealth of knowledge, always wrapped in humility. To Shaun, for showing me how to think deeply and imaginatively. To Michael Moritz, for inspiring 22-year-old me to dream big. To Doug, for teaching me to keep things simple. To Bogie and Jess, for bringing joy to the everyday and perspective on what matters. And to all my Sequoia teammates, for the friendship, camaraderie, and lessons I’ll carry with me. To my family, especially my husband and my brother, who have each started companies of their own: thank you for giving me the courage to take this leap. Let’s get to work!
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sell everything you own and buy the fucking dip!!!!!!!!!
The stock market just fell into “extreme fear.”
one day i hope to lose this much money
Yeah… minor volatility in October. Figured I’d share some personal drawdowns too for transparency.
please be something good. pretty please with sugar on top. i am on my knees.
President Trump declares that the US is not negotiating with Iran, says something will happen “soon.”
semis took 5 weeks to bottom in july and we're currently 2 weeks into this one if this theory holds up, the next bull run should be right around the corner.
The most important thing to understand about stock market cycles in the internet age is they keep getting faster. A rule of thumb is that each successive one will always be half the duration of the previous one. Any time you feel you should wait a little longer, you have waited too long. By this logic, a recession in the year 2100 will last 30 minutes.
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imagine being so bad at stocks people start paying you to stop
at this point someone should just pay me to shut up
unfortunately as i’ve gotten older i’ve learned that having an incessant need to win does in fact mean you’re compensating for something