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Sam
@0xTraderSam
investing @recvcx | prev @messaricrypto, @ether_fi | opinions are my own, nfa | perpetually chalant, pursuing excellence.
939 Following    11.4K Followers
“Most liquid allocators are meaningfully undersized to Ethena when considering the scale of the opportunity” —— The way to think about Ethena TAM/SAM is to imagine the total future market cap of stablecoins, what % of that market will seek yield, what % of those seeking yield want more than SOFR, and that’s how you calculate the Ethena opportunity. I anticipate it will be in the hundreds of billions in the not so far out future. There is no other team that has done better risk management, earned consistent yield above SOFR, has more distribution, and is better capitalized than Ethena. There are very, very few projects in crypto with as much potential upside as Ethena.
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“We believe giving people anywhere in the world access to safe, reliable savings is one of the most impactful products we could build. Now we are delivering this product in a global mobile app to anyone with an Internet connection. Thanks for coming on this journey with us.” - @gdog97_ I haven’t been this bullish on a DeFi protocol in a while, but I truly believe @ethena will bring yield to the eventual multi-trillion dollar stablecoin market. Will share a deeper write-up soon.
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3 ways to play tokenization: - the exchange layer (UNI + AERO + HYPE) - the liquidity layer (MORPHO) - the collateral layer (ENA) this is obv an ENA shill, but it seems deeply mispriced / misunderstood. there is so much upside if they become the primary collateral layer for idle stablecoins to earn yield from RWAs (spot and derivs).
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Would recommend rereading this tweet following the @ethena announcement this morning: - Token + equity aligned - Buyout of all VC sellers - All VCs unlocked, token overhang fully removed - Fee Switch implementation imminent Rerate ENA much higher.
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The amount of gravedancing I'm seeing on Base is ridiculous. Lets be serious for a second - Robinhood Chain is just memecoin traders on fomo, and memecoins on Robinhood are only interesting bc there's a chance RH might tweet about your meme or maybe even list it. But apart from that, there is literally nothing else interesting or unique on Robinhood Chain today, just a bunch of forks. And to make matters worse, Robinhood doesn't even own their users - fomo does. Whereas Base is the settlement layer for: - One of the richest lending and borrowing ecosystems in all of crypto - The most active AI ecosystem in crypto - A top 5 trading ecosystem in crypto - Multiple billion-dollar native tokens - Has at least tried to build disrupting projects with socialfi and agentic trading. The best Robinhood has done is paired a memecoin with NVDA and put a dog on it 😭 Don't get me wrong, I have and plan to continue making money on Robinhood memecoins with the rest of the fomo traders (PONS is still undervalued), but don't get caught holding the bag when the hot ball of money goes to chase memecoins on some other chain. Hopefully by then, Robinhood Chain has managed to scrape together some interesting projects instead of the 50th launchpad.
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HYPE probably bottoms when news of "CLARITY unlikely to pass" hits the front page of the WSJ. We are close.
The Robinhood Chain launchpad wars might go down in history as the most unserious slop narrative I’ve ever seen, I’m begging you come up with original ideas. You can literally build whatever you want with Claude Code and instead you choose to build the 12th PONS competitor.
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Surely this new launchpad on Robinhood will be able to beat out Pons!
capital is abundant. good partners are not. i think choosing your cap table based on actual value add is more important than ever. I also think we will start to see smaller pre-seeds, say 50k for someone to test an idea, kind of the barbell of 200m seeds and 50k seeds
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I will make the case for crypto neobanks very simple for you. > Most banks won't give you loans against onchain assets. > Crypto neobanks can give you loans against onchain and offchain assets. The first neobank to do this successfully will acquire a cohort of very rich crypto whales that they can service with all sorts of other trinkets and financial instruments. But it starts with really good, whole portfolio coverage.
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Higher interest on your dollars. Better cashback on your spending. Cheaper borrowing. One account. One, much better, experience.
Up 2.5x from my call, probably the most mispriced culture prediction market I've seen. Doesn't take a ton of ball knowledge to know Spider-Man IP is worth way more than Avengers in 2026. Pretty funny the initial tweet only got 16 likes, anyways still think there’s juice to be squeezed.
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Been a while since I traded a culture market on Polymarket, but this one looks quite mispriced. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just posted the best first-day presale ticket numbers in five years. Polymarket is pricing the film at a 16% likelihood of having the biggest opening weekend of 2026. Spider-Man No Way Home had a $600m worldwide opening in Dec 2021, and non-Spider-Man Marvel box office numbers have been trash since Endgame. I also see a quick trade: buy now, exit after opening weekend (July 31) and before Doomsday presale numbers hit. That said, there's a very reasonable chance this resolves YES by end of year. IMO, the dark horse is Toy Story 5 (4.5% seems low for Pixar's flagship franchise). Took a much smaller punt on that.
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@lecurvecapital @defi_monk Go thru my tweets, I voiced this concern at ATHs after I publicly predicted that HYPE would rerate much higher after SPCX IPO and Coinbase/Circle announcement at $43.
@lecurvecapital @defi_monk Go thru my tweets, I voiced this concern at ATHs after I publicly predicted that HYPE would rerate much higher after SPCX IPO and Coinbase/Circle announcement at $43.
@hasufl Why do they have to leave? They could in theory issue on multiple venues
The takeaway from this tweet is .hls think that TradeXYZ launching their own product would be corrupt and egotistical and so insulting and how could Shoku ever do that to them?!! (that’s showbiz, baby). Replace this scenario with a contract renegotiation: 70% of fees go to Trade, 30% go to Hyperliquid. Now how do you feel, anon?
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As a HYPE bull during the Cambrian explosion of RWA perps, you should ask yourself the following questions: 1) if TradeXYZ left Hyperliquid tomorrow and launched their own exchange, where would you go to trade RWA perps? 2) if TradeXYZ launched a stock/token, how would you value HYPE differently? 3) what is the likelihood of #1# and #2#? I don’t intend to be a bear, but I’m pretty confident in my answers to #1# and #2# and I’m not naive enough to say I (or seemingly any major allocator) knows the answer to #3#. And before the .hl’s whine in my comments, this is not meant to slight either protocol, it’s to state a fact: TradeXYZ holds a large and growing amount of leverage over Hyperliquid.
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As a HYPE bull during the Cambrian explosion of RWA perps, you should ask yourself the following questions: 1) if TradeXYZ left Hyperliquid tomorrow and launched their own exchange, where would you go to trade RWA perps? 2) if TradeXYZ launched a stock/token, how would you value HYPE differently? 3) what is the likelihood of #1# and #2#? I don’t intend to be a bear, but I’m pretty confident in my answers to #1# and #2# and I’m not naive enough to say I (or seemingly any major allocator) knows the answer to #3#. And before the .hl’s whine in my comments, this is not meant to slight either protocol, it’s to state a fact: TradeXYZ holds a large and growing amount of leverage over Hyperliquid.
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We are entering a new era for DeFi. For the first time ever, @HyperliquidX generated more volume from RWAs than crypto in a single week. RWAs accounted for 54% of total trading volume. An even more interesting trend: since June, single stocks have overtaken indices and commodities on HIP-3. Today, 61% of all RWA trading volume is in individual equities. I’m no longer convinced RWA trading will naturally aggregate on the same venue as crypto. There will likely be category leaders within RWA, and owning BTC/ETH/SOL flow may become far less important than many people assume. To put this into perspective: Total DEX perpetual volume last week: $79B Hyperliquid: $50B Of that, $26B was HIP-3 RWA trading In other words, Hyperliquid’s RWA market alone was larger than the combined crypto perpetual volume of every other DEX. If you’re still only focused on crypto token trading, I think you’re focusing on the wrong market. data from @Blockworks
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So @Collector_Crypt just posted one of its strongest volume days. The 2.5K Gacha drove a huge spike in activity, with much of it coming via @JupiterExchange's front end. All this while the token continues to bleed. Love the trade set-up on solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp.
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Hosting a private dinner next weds in NYC. Looking to invite people building or investing in Decentralized AI - DM me if you're interested.
This is the most important metric to watch for Hyperliquid. Looks very good.
Hyperliquid’s monthly perpetual volume reached $266B last month, lifting its volume ratio versus Binance to a record 16.52%. Month after month, the trend is moving in one direction: higher. Source: The Block
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From an ecological perspective, western frontier models are a common pool resource that Chinese open weight models exploit. They are finite, because if you exploit them too hard, they lose the incentive and resources to train new models, and everyone loses. (Chinese models aren’t magically good, they are good because Ant and OAI spend a lot of money on training). If you think about it like a parasite/host relationship, Chinese models are a parasite that needs to calibrate its exploitation so that the host doesn’t die. Kimi arguably made a mistake. It overexploited the host and imperiled the Ant OAI growth story. So at equilibrium you’d expect open weight models to “tastefully” exploit the western frontier and choose to remain 6 months behind and slightly inferior capability wise. However perhaps Kimi, Qwen, GLM, deepseek etc may not be playing an equilibrium game. They might be under orders to puncture the American lab growth story, even if it means killing their own host. Maybe the time is now because OAI and Ant are most vulnerable ahead of the IPO. Maybe Xi just had a bad day. Or maybe Kimi defected from the gentleman’s agreement that the Chinese labs share to not kill the host that they all rely on.
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