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Kunal Doshi
@Kunallegendd
Research @blockworksres | prev @thespartangroup | Views are my own
2.2K Following    2K Followers
Alpha!! My understanding of this is that it improves your pull odds on the gacha. A win for the users and a win for token holders as it functions as another token sink. Just wait till this features gets rolled out to the masses.
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And you are still not subscribed to our @0xResearch newsletter? We posted the thesis on Monday in a piece titled Sleeping on @MeteoraAG?
Our daily @0xResearch newsletter just got a revamp, and it’s a whole lot better. Expect daily unfiltered insights from our analysts into exactly what we’re looking at. Starting today with why @Collector_Crypt's CARDS is gonna rip. Read it here:
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Very interesting to see that the majority of the trading volume of tokenized equities is happening outside of US market hours. 24/7 markets are already becoming a reality onchain.
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So, has @Uniswap's fee switch actually hurt LPs? When most fee switches went live in late July, the concern was that LPs would withdraw, liquidity would move to competing venues and traders would receive worse prices. So far, none of that has happened. TVL across Uniswap’s largest chains has increased alongside the broader market. Execution has also continued to improve, with price impact falling across different trade sizes for native asset to stablecoin and stablecoin to stablecoin pairs. Together, these categories account for around 70% of Uniswap’s volume. LPs have stayed, traders are getting better execution and Uniswap is finally earning protocol revenue. A rare win, win, win.
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The best outcome for @Uniswap's fee switch may be how little has changed. It has been almost a month since protocol fees went live across V4. LP TVL has barely budged, even on Base, where Uniswap faces strong competition from @AerodromeFi. The same pattern is visible on V3 Ethereum. When the fee switch went live nine months ago, the concern was simple. LPs would leave, liquidity would thin, and traders would get worse execution. Instead, price impact across native asset to stablecoin and stablecoin to stablecoin pairs has continued to improve. Together, these pairs account for 70% of Uniswap’s volume. So far, LPs do not appear materially worse off, traders are getting better fills, and Uniswap is finally capturing protocol revenue. A rare win, win, win.
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So @Collector_Crypt just posted one of its strongest volume days. The 2.5K Gacha drove a huge spike in activity, with much of it coming via @JupiterExchange's front end. All this while the token continues to bleed. Love the trade set-up on solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp.
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Despite the recent selloff, I remain bullish on @pumpcade. I think it'll look obvious in hindsight. The World Cup was just the beginning. After that comes football, baseball, basketball and soccer seasons. Microbetting already accounts for around 40% of wagering volume on major sportsbooks, yet it remains largely untapped in prediction markets today. But the opportunity is much bigger than sports. Anything with a real time API can become a fast resolving market. Esports: -CS2 (Next round winner, total kills, first to plant) -Forza Motorsport (Leader at the end of the lap, fastest lap) Novel Sports: -Horse racing (Will the halfway leader win the race?) -Darts (Will this leg require more than 15 darts?) Random Markets: -Bus routes (Over or under two buses reaching Times Square in the next 5 minutes) -Plane tracking (Which flight lands at JFK in the next 5 minutes?) These markets settle in minutes, are easy to understand and are highly entertaining to watch. The obvious criticism is that none of this creates value until it's on mainnet. That's true. But if the World Cup testnet showed anything, it's that these games exposed real UX and market design problems before users had real money at stake. The team has been quick to iterate and fix them. I'd much rather see that than rush to mainnet, have users lose money because of poor market design, and permanently damage trust. I continue to view solana:Eg2ymQ2aQqjMcibnmTt8erC6Tvk9PVpJZCxvVPJz2agu as a venture-style investment. The execution risk is there, but so is the asymmetry at a $10M FDV.
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Two days into @pumpcade's Cade Cups, the early metrics have been extremely encouraging. Yesterday's Round of 16 matches attracted 1.3K unique participants who placed 12.6K bets. Across just 4 games since launch, users have wagered 76.6M dollars. While the volume is denominated in testnet dollars rather than real money, it provides an encouraging early signal of PMF. In the Cade Cup, Pumpcade charged a flat 3% fee, although this will likely evolve with the introduction of congestion based fees. Even if the protocol ultimately captures just 1% of its current testnet wagering volume, which appears achievable as it expands across more sports, markets and other real time events with live data feeds, it would generate roughly $345K in monthly fees. At today's valuation, that implies an FDV to fees multiple of roughly 7.3x. For comparison, annualizing June fee numbers, Polymarket trades at roughly 17.8x sales, while Kalshi trades at approximately 12.8x sales based on its rumoured $40B valuation round. The bull case speaks for itself. And that’s just with a 1% assumption. Excited to see the platform continue to improve and deliver the gamified experience suited for micro-betting which is growing as a sector itself.
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Disruptive technology almost always faces intense regulatory scrutiny and incumbent backlash before becoming mainstream. History is full of examples: (1) Taxi unions spent years trying to regulate Uber out of existence through lawsuits, protests, and city-wide bans. Uber went from a controversial startup to a ~$150B company doing ~$40B+ annual gross bookings. (2) Hotel lobbies pushed cities worldwide to crack down on Airbnb over “unfair competition” and regulatory arbitrage. Airbnb now does ~$11B+ annual revenue and completely changed global travel behavior. (3) Legacy media and Hollywood viewed Netflix as a threat to the entertainment industry, while regulators scrutinized streaming licensing and distribution models. Netflix grew from a DVD-by-mail disruptor into one of the largest media platforms in the world. (4) Record labels initially fought Spotify aggressively over royalties and fears that streaming would destroy music economics. Today Spotify has ~700M users globally and became the dominant music distribution platform. (5) Regulators and legacy finance recently called 0DTE options “dangerous speculation” and pushed for tighter restrictions. Now 0DTEs account for a massive share of SPX options volume and became one of the most important liquidity products in modern markets. The pattern is consistent: new technology compresses friction and challenges incumbents → incumbents call it dangerous → adoption compounds anyway. Things are just getting started from here Hyperliquid
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[ ZOOMER ] CME AND NYSE ARE PUSHING THE US TO REGULATE HYPERLIQUID, DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT MARKET MANIPULATION AND SANCTIONS EVASION: BBG
Not to be faded “What can be said now is that 11.4% of circulating HPL was staked within thirteen days of program launch. Adoption at that rate, against a balance sheet of $658.7M and a loan book that grew more than 23% in a contracting sector, is a directional signal worth taking seriously.”
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I have seen that one before!
Loopscale + @Collector_Crypt Submit your collectibles today and borrow fixed-rate USDC against your collection at launch. →
Strong fundamentals. Compressed multiple. @kamino's revenue profile has held up far better than its valuation would suggest. Historically, these kinds of dislocations don’t last forever.
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Most @Collector_Crypt users are playing it wrong Players are down about -2.6% on average from spinning the gacha Meanwhile the average graded card is up around 50% to 100% at least since the start of the year But only 35% of users actually keep their cards The rest sell instantly The people treating it like a game are losing The ones treating it like collecting are winning
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Stablecoin protocols tapping into @MicroStrategy's STRC’s yield are seeing explosive growth. TVL across these strategies has increased 2.5x over the past month, making them one of the fastest growing segments in DeFi right now. This growth is tracking closely with STRC itself, whose market cap has risen 73% from $4.9B to $8.5B over the same period, signaling strong demand for Saylor’s latest product across multiple market participants. @apyx_fi and @saturn_credit are the primary beneficiaries so far. What makes this strategy particularly compelling is its scalability. STRC consistently sees $100M–$250M in daily trading volume, allowing these protocols to efficiently scale exposure in response to deposits and redemptions without major liquidity constraints. With the right risk safeguards in place, the next phase of this trade is likely to be looping yield-bearing stablecoins. PTs on these assets are currently offering 16% and 13% yields respectively, and importantly, these yields are sustainable even as TVL grows. Early signs of demand are already visible, with Morpho’s listing of PT-apyUSD reaching $23.2M supplied within just 10 days. Looking ahead, the key metrics to watch are continued TVL growth and capital efficiency across these strategies. Secondary beneficiaries are @pendle_fi and @Morpho, which are becoming the primary venues for structuring and leveraging these trades.
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Despite Covenant’s departure a few weeks ago and the questions raised around @bittensor's decentralization, fundamentals continue to improve. The proportion of TAO staked in alpha subnets has steadily increased and now sits at 28%. Subnets across the Bittensor ecosystem have continued to ship performance upgrades and reaffirm their commitment to the network, signaling continued alignment despite recent concerns. The potential introduction of locked stake, which would require subnet owners to lock TAO for a defined period, should further strengthen this alignment. It creates a more credible signal of long-term commitment and reduces the risk of short-term opportunistic exits, as seen with Covenant. TAO and subnet tokens were among the strongest performers prior to this incident and remain one of the clearest ways for crypto funds to gain exposure to the AI narrative. Price action also suggests that momentum may be starting to build again.
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