A few days ago, I posted this, and the comments were all in disbelief, mad, or telling me I am a paid mouthpiece.
Now, JP Morgan and Goldman say the same thing:
The comments… no one wants to believe the data here…
The data shows, Oil is flowing through the straights, but… not for Iran which is effectively zero, per his point about them losing all leverage.
But… non-Iranian Gulf oil IS moving under US cover and it has recovered.
Pre-war Hormuz carried about 16–20 million b/d of crude and products. That collapsed to about 2 million b/d in March and, after the strait was squeezed again, to about 1.7 million b/d by late July.
But… the latest reconstructed tallies: AIS + dark crossings + US-facilitated southern-route nights, are back up to roughly 13.5 million b/d.
Commodity Context/Kpler put the seven-day average near 13.5 million b/d
So Iran has lost control, they are not moving any oil, while other gulf states are under US cover.