đ BITCOIN JUST ENTERED A HISTORIC CORRELATION REGIME đ
This is WILD. I genuinely believe Bitcoin is setting up for a COVID-style blow-off bull run.
Bitcoinâs correlation with GOLD is currently sitting near the absolute extreme of the last decade:
42-day: 99.7th percentile
63-day: 99.96th percentile
90-day: 100th percentile
Meanwhile, Bitcoinâs correlation with QQQ is basically ordinary.
The 63-day numbers:
BTC â GOLD: +0.587
BTC â QQQ: +0.318
Bitcoin is suddenly behaving MUCH more like hard money than high-beta tech.
So I went hunting through 10 years of daily data for every remotely similar setup.
I defined the regime mechanically:
BTC/gold correlation in the top 5% of history while BTC/QQQ correlation stayed inside its middle 50%.
There were 68 matching trading days.
Hereâs the insane part:
Every single one clustered between July 27 and November 27, 2020.
You may remember what Bitcoin did next.
Median BTC return after those signals:
6 months: +315%
12 months: +309%
18 months: +246%
24 months: +77%
Positive-return hit rate:
6M: 100%
12M: 100%
18M: 100%
24M: 91%
For comparison, Bitcoinâs normal median 6-month return across the entire last decade was only about +20%.
So historically, this exact regime wasnât merely bullish.
It was the market quietly loading a ballistic missile while everyone was arguing about whether Bitcoin was still a tech stock.
Important caveat: those 68 observations all belong to ONE previous macro episode, so this is an analog, not a prophecy.
But the last time Bitcoinâs correlation structure shifted this aggressively toward goldâŠ
Bitcoin went completely vertical.
Hard money regime.
Scarcity trade waking up.
đđđ