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Alex Goston
@Alex_Goston
Ex. KKR and RBC GAM. Now building an institutional-quality credit analyst training program.
641 Following    1.1K Followers
Enjoyed putting together this overview of $CRWV credit earlier this week. Full slide deck is available for download in the quoted post. The backlog runoff analysis on page 14 of the deck is helpful for framing the unsecured parent-level credit bet here, which is by no means straightforward. Being long the unsecured, you have to believe that CoreWeave deploys cash flow from its active backlog in an accretive matter (both in terms of project-level cash equity investment and parent-level corporate cost spend which is significant). Equity bet is even more difficult here, as combination of (i) NPV of value created via incremental projects won + (ii) residual value of GPUs post customer contract expiries, net of (iii) dilution via any incremental equity/converts issuance, needs to be worth more than $33.4B (market cap at the time of this analysis). Can CoreWeave (and neoclouds generally) capture this much value or will their swing capacity role diminish over time? Is CoreWeave equity the best way to express a bullish view on compute? Imo, very difficult questions to answer. *Not investment advice. For educational purposes only.
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