Keybanc Revenue and EPS estimates for Intel
$84B and $3.14 in 2027
$99.5B and $4.56 in 2028 (they assume a 48.7% gross margin for the year)
Their 2027 numbers are pretty accurate IMO. Gross margin and revenue could be higher in 2027 if Intel takes more pricing action. Revenue is constrained by substrates.
Keybanc is too low on 2028 IMO. Given most of the work on Intel's wafer ramp has occured. I think figures in $120B range and a gross margin above 50% are more realistic.
Keybanc 2030 is $149B and $8.84. Alex_Intel_ is at $234B with EPS of $17 for 2030.
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"our channel checks indicate server CPUs will also undergo another round of price hikes of at least 15% in 26Q4."
Hell ya Intel DCAI margins up and to the right
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Lip-Bu "I'm glad in life sometimes you need a break and the break, it turned out to be the case"
Intel 18A and Intel 3 capacity growing above 50% next year
ez money
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I was told by an Intel person that Lip-Bu meant Q1 2028 volume production for Intel 14A
Just to clarify
Thank you for your attention to this matter
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Should Intel buy GlobalFoundries?
I wouldn't expect Intel to consider this until mid 2027 (Intel's need for space is only starting); full attention is on 14A.
Lip-Bu was a serial acquirer at Cadence; the lack of acquisitions so far is unique.
Appreciate your thoughts.
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This note from Northland was also kinda funny because it's the first wallstreet analyst I've seen upgrade Intel on a belief that Taiwan will likely be blockaded or invaded in the next few years lol.
"In our view, it is not an if; it is a when, reuniting with China. Chinaโs reunification of Taiwan could happen within the next 18 months. The war in Iran has created a window of opportunity for a Chinese blockade of Taiwan; the presidential election on 1/28 is also a potential catalyst. We expect INTC
will outperform in this eventuality."
I think we entering an acute period of risk towards Taiwan for next 24-36 months. Of course everything would crash except for Intel, which along with a few other stocks would soar. Not a reason to purely own Intel, but its effectively a portfolio hedge.
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@lithos_graphein China already takes apart ASML scanners to try and steal the IP?
Mistake was sending them in the first place. But Xi didn't rule China then, and they seemed more friendly
Bernstein Taiwan analysts have 2028 EMIB production when converted to a CoWOS equivalent (modeling purposes) as greater than all 2025 CoWoS, and around 1/3 market share in 2028
EMIB is very efficient, and Intel Malaysia is a very large facility. In addition Intel has Amkor Korea to help output
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Been checking every now and then if Tesla had roles for memory process design
(So far none for Intel)
Tesla has several and some material jobs that are tied to capacitor dielectrics
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I'd rate current Intel selloff as slightly less dumb, everything is selling off
However Intels yield turnaround and Foundry design wins have only increased
I would take Keybanc report of customers VERY seriously ๐
Intel Foundry is free given current Intel products EPS
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