AllThingsVentured
@AllVentured
Bold and unfiltered takes on trade, shipping, and commodities. Not investment advice.
1.2K Following 13.7K Followers
US model token consumption stopped growing 8 weeks ago. OpenAI falling off a cliff.
Its a good thing these companies have 10x the effective compute coming online in the next 24 months.
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Massive deceleration in ARR growth for OpenAI and Anthropic. And most of this deceleration came BEFORE both dropped new models that are 80% cheaper for a similar level of intelligence. The outright decline in combined ARR is near.
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Ask yourself why oil inventories are accelerating downward DESPITE increased flows from the middle east. China reported a 35mil barrel draw last week. That's 7mmb/d!
It's not a magical sudden return of demand. Whatever invisible inventories that were being used to make inferred demand look lower are now gone, China is being forced to increase refining runs, and we are back to seeing the real effect of the global supply deficit.
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