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@AntonLaVay
Nec temere, nec timide. 🇳🇱🇪🇺🇨🇳 能源/科技/BIO
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I think “Trump fed the AI trade 100x leverage” overstates the policy effect.
Trump clearly accelerated permitting, deregulation and AI infrastructure buildout, but the industrial-policy foundation was already there under Biden — CHIPS Act subsidies, TSMC/Intel/Samsung fabs, and Biden’s Jan-2025 EO already put federal land, power and expedited permitting behind frontier AI data centers.
But Trump’s macro impact has bearish for everything. The Iran war/energy shock, alongside tariffs, helped turn an active Fed easing cycle into the first rate hike in three years. We went from three consecutive cuts in late 2025 to a hike yesterday.
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@AntonLaVay I think the problem is Trump has been feeding AI trade 100x leverage but if Dem take back power it could reduce the leverage and ai names will get a very big discount before finding out it is actually fine aka deleveraging
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You yourself acknowledged that this is a supply shock; when faced with a supply shortage, you either suppress demand or drive up prices (i.e., inflation)
right? A fundamental principle: supply and demand are two sides of the same coin.
If supply increases while demand remains constant, deflation occurs;
if supply decreases while demand remains constant, inflation occurs.
so what is the problem with the Fed suppressing demand?
Besides, historically, the initial wave of most inflationary episodes has been driven by supply shocks.
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You yourself acknowledged that this is a supply shock; when faced with a supply shortage, you either suppress demand or drive up prices (i.e., inflation)
right? A fundamental principle: supply and demand are two sides of the same coin.
If supply increases while demand remains constant, deflation occurs;
if supply decreases while demand remains constant, inflation occurs.
so what is the problem with the Fed suppressing demand?
Besides, historically, the initial wave of most inflationary episodes has been driven by supply shocks.
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The meme is funny, but it attacks a straw man.
Nobody thinks a rate hike can reopen Hormuz or create more oil.
Monetary policy cannot fix the first-round supply shock. Its job is to stop that shock from becoming persistent, economy-wide inflation through demand, wages, pricing behavior and expectations.
“This is supply-side inflation” is an argument for fiscal, energy, government and monetary policy to work together — not an argument for the Fed to do nothing.
The fact that the Fed cannot produce oil does not mean it should accommodate unlimited nominal demand against a constrained supply base.
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@divram_ai I think you are right if you think he is a reasonable person.
My opinion is he just talked about nonsense, as inflation is from supply side and not going to be suppressed by just hiking rates unless destroy the demand aggressively.
@agnostoxxx has a very good meme to mock him.
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This is partisan framing, not serious AI analysis.
Biden literally signed an EO to accelerate frontier-AI data centers on federal land, backed by new power infrastructure. His policy wasn’t “don’t build” — it was “build, but don’t dump the grid costs on households.”
And look at the actual data-center states:
Democratic VA: make data centers pay their own transmission costs.
Democratic PA: bring your own power / pay for incremental capacity.
Republican TX: pay your own grid costs, conserve water, protect residential rates.
The bipartisan trend is obvious: build AI, but make hyperscalers internalize the infrastructure costs.
“Dems win = bad for AI” is politics pretending to be a trade thesis.
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$pltr
save my dog life.
吼吼，看评论区，大家对于CAPEX的担忧这么重呀，那不如来 $aapl 和 $pltr 一起当家人。
