Another NATO x Russia military clash dispute just forced Polymarket to clarify the rules again
Romanian F-16s shot down 2 Russian drones over their waters. It started a dispute over whether it counted as a military clash
But I already said back in July this market requires a direct military x military confrontation. And that didn't happen this time
Polymarket has now clarified the same thing: intercepting attacks aimed at third parties doesn't qualify
That's why you trade the rules, not the headline. An event can look huge and still not qualify
I think the NATO x Russia military clash market is significantly overpriced
Traders have pumped NATO x Russia military clash by Dec 31 odds up to 28%. It happened after reports that NATO had downed a Russian drone in Romanian airspace
I completely disagree with ppl who buy YES because the incident doesn't meet the rules criteria
Rules strictly exclude the interception of single-use strike drones aimed at a 3rd party and require a direct military x military confrontation. Not just the downing of stray munitions in airspace
Some YES holder refer to a recent case when China x Philippine military clash market was resolved YES with weak evidence. But this case is diff because the rules are much tighter
I see this as a great NO entry rn. You don’t even need to hold until Dec 31. Emotions will fade and odds will dump fast