Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr
@AxelAdlerJr
Stop guessing Bitcoin's next move
Daily on-chain brief: cycle phase, key levels, one clear read
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Coinbase Premium stayed positive for just two days before the index slipped back below zero yesterday.
Dormant Bitcoin is waking up 🔔
Over 2,504 $BTC last active 3 to 5 years ago has just moved on-chain.
Long-term holders are starting to move coins.
I’ll turn bullish when there’s confirmation.
For now, I don’t see it.
Breaking news: The Federal Reserve chair said high inflation is 'concerning', warning that the US central bank will have 'work to do' unless policymakers make swift progress in cooling price pressures across the economy.
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Keynote remarks by Chairman Warsh at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium @KansasCityFed:
Watch live:
Learn more about Chairman Warsh:
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🚨 The Fed is leaning hawkish again.
Schmid says the current policy rate isn't restrictive enough, and Hammack says now is the time to act.
Today's focus is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech; his tone could move risk assets across the board.
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Current market dynamics in one infographic.
Bitcoin is testing the SMA365 as miners ramp up selling for the first time since February.
The MPI has remained above zero for three consecutive days, while fees have accounted for less than 1% of miner revenue for 377 consecutive days.
The pressure emerged right at key long-term resistance.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #245👇#
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Bitcoin is testing the SMA365 as miners ramp up selling for the first time since February.
The MPI has remained above zero for three consecutive days, while fees have accounted for less than 1% of miner revenue for 377 consecutive days.
The pressure emerged right at key long-term resistance.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #245👇#
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Bitcoin Miners are increasing their selling pressure ⛏️
The Miners' Position Index (MPI) shows when $BTC outflows from miner wallets exceed their 1-year average.
A spike in MPI suggests miners are moving more Bitcoin than usual, potentially preparing to sell.
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Bitcoin has rebounded 35%, but transaction fees remain below 1 sat/vB. Price is recovering, while demand for blockspace has yet to follow.
Saylor, instead of buying bitcoin:native, has been busy making memes about himself.
The market viewed persistent inflation and resilient economic activity as evidence that further Fed tightening remains possible.
Following yesterday's reports, the 2-year UST yield rose to 4.22%, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.66%. As of now, yields remain near those levels at 4.22% and 4.64%, respectively.
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What’s really happening in the market (infographic).
Over ten days, Bitcoin's unrealized losses fell by 60%.
At the same time, realized profits exceeded losses for the first time since late July. The current period of loss dominance lasted 26 days, compared with 241 days in 2022-2023.
The balance has shifted toward profits, but the margin remains almost nonexistent: the ratio stands at 1.003.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #244👇#
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Over ten days, Bitcoin's unrealized losses fell by 60%.
At the same time, realized profits exceeded losses for the first time since late July. The current period of loss dominance lasted 26 days, compared with 241 days in 2022-2023.
The balance has shifted toward profits, but the margin remains almost nonexistent: the ratio stands at 1.003.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #244👇#
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U.S. inflation remained elevated in July: the PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% forecast, while core PCE increased 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year.
Following the release, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.67%, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose from 36% to 44%.
Against this backdrop, the Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 traded largely unchanged,and the Nasdaq lost 0.2%.
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Today, instead of Education, I am publishing an additional update to the latest Weekly Engine that incorporates the latest developments.
The inflow is so small you can barely see it on the chart without a magnifying glass.
Monthly capital flow direction have now returned to positive territory.
From here, staying clear of a return to the bear market depends on demand stepping in to buy the dip and stabilizing price above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, now near $70k.
That is the key line to defend.
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Market context explained visually.
Capital flows into Bitcoin have turned positive for the first time in nearly three months. But the inflow was only +0.21% - one of the weakest positive readings in recent years.
So far, only the direction of flows has changed. Strong demand has not returned.
What needs to happen next - explained in Morning Brief #243👇#
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Capital flows into Bitcoin have turned positive for the first time in nearly three months. But the inflow was only +0.21% - one of the weakest positive readings in recent years.
So far, only the direction of flows has changed. Strong demand has not returned.
What needs to happen next - explained in Morning Brief #243👇#
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Extreme undervaluation is clear.
