Axel ๐๐ Adler Jr
@AxelAdlerJr
Stop guessing Bitcoin's next move
Daily on-chain brief: cycle phase, key levels, one clear read
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The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached 5.32%, its highest level since 2002, as Brent rose to $103 a barrel.
A strong $39 billion auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury notes provided additional support for the bond market: bids totaled $108.1 billion, with a bid to cover ratio of 2.77.
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Brent rose above $103 a barrel on Thursday amid renewed risks of escalation involving Iran. According to The Atlantic, the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare options for strikes that could take place before the November midterm elections. No final decision has been made.
With Hurricane Isaias approaching, oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have temporarily shut in roughly 512,000 barrels a day, or 25.08% of U.S. oil production in the region. Geopolitical risks and supply disruptions are supporting oil prices.
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Current market situation - visual breakdown.
Bitcoin fell to $82.8K after the release of the Fed minutes.
In Morning Brief #274#, we examine what the Fed says about further rate hikes and how the market regime has changed.
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Bitcoin fell to $82.8K after the release of the Fed minutes.
In Morning Brief #274#, we examine what the Fed says about further rate hikes and how the market regime has changed.
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CryptoQuant Analyst Consensus just got an upgrade.
Now covering 1,708 assets.
โฟ Bitcoin: 82.5% bullish
ฮ Ethereum: 84.4% bullish
โ Solana: 92.9% bullish
See what analysts are bullish or bearish on across crypto and traditional markets.
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Gold fell 0.6% today to $4,131 an ounce as the dollar strengthened. Brent rose above $101 amid risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East and the threat of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico. High oil prices keep inflation risks alive, though markets price in roughly an 80% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady in October.
Investors await the minutes from the Fedโs September meeting today for clues on further rate hikes.
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Market context explained visually.
Bitcoin fell 2%, giving sellers the upper hand.A one-off shakeout or the start of more sustained selling pressure?
A closer look in Morning Brief #273# ๐
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Bitcoin fell 2%, giving sellers the upper hand.A one-off shakeout or the start of more sustained selling pressure?
A closer look in Morning Brief #273# ๐
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JPMorgan says crude oil exports from the Middle East have recovered to 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of prewar levels. This includes shipments via all routes, including those bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen to $88 per barrel.
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Market snapshot in one infographic.
Long-term holders are reducing their positions and the market is absorbing the supply. LTH SOPR at 1.18 indicates profit-taking, but the price continues to rise.
In Morning Brief #272#, we examine the scale of these position reductions and the signal that would show demand can no longer keep up with supply. ๐
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Long-term holders are reducing their positions and the market is absorbing the supply. LTH SOPR at 1.18 indicates profit-taking, but the price continues to rise.
In Morning Brief #272#, we examine the scale of these position reductions and the signal that would show demand can no longer keep up with supply. ๐
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Strategy reports a $21 billion gain on digital assets in Q3 2026. Last week, we acquired 334 $BTC and repurchased $176M of $STRC. As of 10/4/26, we hold 848,000 BTC and $5.7B of USD Assets. $MSTR
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How sustainable is Bitcoinโs rise if ETF inflows have fallen by 96%? What are long-term holders doing now, and how much have signs of distribution intensified? Can Juneโs bottom be considered definitive? And what data over the coming week could call the bullish scenario into question?
Answers in Weekly Engine #115๐#
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Grok groks it
@iama12x @cryptoquant_com @AxelAdlerJr ํ์๋ก ์ค์ค๋ ์ดํฐ ํ์ฌ +34.5(BTC ์ฝ 8.5๋ง ๋ฌ๋ฌ). +100 ์๊ณ๊ฐ์ 15.78๋ง ๋ฌ๋ฌ๋ก ์ฝ 86% ์์น ์ฌ์ง. 10๋
๊ฐ ํผํฌ๊ฐ +169โ+102๋ก ๋ฎ์์ง๊ณ ์ผ์ผ ๋ณ๋ ํ์คํธ์ฐจ 49% ๊ฐ์ํด ์ฌ์ดํด ๋ณ๋์ฑ ์ถ์ ์ค. ๊ณ ์ ๋ชฉํ๊ฐ ์๋ ํ์ฌ ํ๊ท ์ฐธ๊ณ ์น์ด๋ฉฐ ํ์๋ก ๋ผ์ธ ์์น ์ ํจ๊ป ์ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ. ๊ณผ์ด ๊ตฌ๊ฐ ์ ์ฌ๋ ฅ ์กด์ฌ.
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Bitcoin at $157K: what the Power Law calculation shows
โBased on the modelโs parameters as of October 3, the +100 threshold corresponds to a price of $157.8K, roughly 86% above the current price.โ โ By @AxelAdlerJr
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Short-term holders are building positions. Bitcoin is trading 15% above their average cost basis.
In Morning Brief #271#, we examine how resilient their position is and which level needs to hold. ๐
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Bitcoin at $157K: what the Power Law calculation shows via @cryptoquant_com
Bitcoinโs realized cap rose 1.2%, or $12.8 billion, over the past 30 days, reaching $1.079 trillion on October 2. A month ago, the growth rate was 0.66%, meaning it has since doubled.
Despite a slight price pullback following Septemberโs rally, the aggregate on-chain cost basis continues to rise.
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Over the past 24 hours, OI has fallen by 13.6K BTC while the price has remained virtually unchanged.
The market has deleveraged, reducing the risk of a liquidation cascade.
BREAKING: ๐บ๐ธ US inflation remains at 3.4%.
