This is JP Morgan’s view is Wall Street consensus. It assumes there is one Democratic Party. My view aligns more with Democrat Strategist Jim Carville, who spoke on the Bulwark podcast two weeks ago. He suggests there are two Democratic parties, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and the more moderate/traditional Democrats. These divisions mean the margin of victory might play a huge role in the market’s reaction. -- Carville: “I would be disappointed if it comes in at 225 House seats. That would almost be—I would rather the Republicans keep the House by five than the Democrats win by five because if that happens, they’re hostage to the DSA. Like, Hakeem [Jeffries] cannot move. He has nowhere to go. Even if you have a close Senate, [Sen. John] Fetterman would keep [Sen. Chuck] Schumer Pepto-Bismol all night. So I think this is one of those races where margin matters a lot.” -- We would add that if the Senate is a 51-49 Democrat majority, not only does presumed Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have to worry about PA Senator John Fetterman siding with Republicans, but Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and a presumed Michigan winner Abdul El-Sayed could put up a “block” because the Democratic Party is not progressive enough. This issue would come to a head almost immediately over data centers. Moderate/traditional Democrats, such as unions and middle-class voters, want those jobs. They are accelerationists. The DSA wants to block more data center construction. They are decelerationists. This could turn into an epic fight within the Democratic Party.

“A bear market is time not price.” Absolutely critical piece of analysis from Jim Bianco @biancoresearch Full episode here: YT: Apple: Spotify:

Great example of the K-shaped economy in 2026... Wall Street sees rising equities boosting wealth, but most of the country doesn't own equities. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because they care about real dollars. 1/2

1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next.

If you have been worried sick about this... --- (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk is a trillionaire again. The fortune of the world’s richest person jumped by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the value of his stakes in SpaceX and Tesla Inc. rose. SpaceX shares are up 13% since the start of October, while Tesla has gained 6.7%.

Is it time to buy bonds? Jim Bianco explains why he thinks it is. Full episode with @biancoresearch below or here: YT: Apple: Spotify:

A few days ago, I argued that excessive debt wasn't driving yields higher (link). The repost is my argument for why yields are moving higher, and why they are no longer expensive.

I agree with @AlexMalitas that the CCC spread widening is a bunch of "problem children" and not a signal of wider credit problems. Too many are over-reading this. Confirming this, @AlexMalitas also noted that Ba spreads (blue repost) are not widening. ---- Which companies have people overreacting to CCC spread widening? * Acrisure LLC / Fin Inc: Insurance brokerage built through hundreds of agency acquisitions, expanding into fintech, payroll and cybersecurity services. * Affinity Interactive: Formerly Affinity Gaming. Operates regional casinos, mostly in Nevada, plus properties in Missouri and Iowa. * Altice Financing SA: Financing entity for Altice International, Patrick Drahi's telecom group outside the U.S. and France (Portugal, Israel, Dominican Republic). * Aston Martin Capital Hldgs: Financing arm of Aston Martin Lagonda, the UK luxury sports car maker. * Camelot Return Merger Sub: Acquisition vehicle Clayton, Dubilier & Rice used to take Cornerstone Building Brands private in 2022. * Cornerstone Building: North American maker of exterior building products, including vinyl windows, siding, metal roofing and metal buildings. * CSC Holdings LLC: Main operating and borrowing subsidiary of Altice USA, which sells cable, broadband and mobile service under the Optimum brand. * Hertz Corp: Car rental through Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty. * LBM Acquisition LLC: Issuer for US LBM, a Bain-backed distributor of lumber and building materials to homebuilders and contractors. * LCPR Sr Secured Fin DAC: Financing vehicle for Liberty Latin America's cable, broadband and mobile operations in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. * PM General Purchaser LLC: Vehicle KPS Capital Partners used to buy AM General, maker of the Humvee military vehicle. * SC Games Holding / US Finco: Scientific Games, the Brookfield-owned lottery business that makes scratch-off tickets and runs state lottery systems. * Signal Parent Inc: Parent of Interior Logic Group, which designs and installs flooring, cabinets and countertops for homebuilders. * Tronox Inc: One of the world's largest producers of titanium dioxide, the white pigment used in paint, plastics, and paper.

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨with JIM BIANCO @biancoresearch Jim outlines why he is making a major shift, following his correct 6 year bearish bonds call, to be constructive long bonds. "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds." We also hit: - why rates have surged - why it hasn't hit stocks more - why the Fed still isn't credible under Warsh...yet - the risk of higher yields – inc from France, UK, Japan - but nonetheless why long bonds are now attractive - 60/40 still works - not because of a hedge, but due to yield - bullish gold & crypto...with caveats - a bear market is time not price BUY BONDS: "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds. Now you're right, I'm not pounding the table that they're a buy because they're going to rally so yields fall – I'm not talking about the economy falling or the inflation situation turning around – but now you're finally getting paid for the risk appropriately.” GROWTH: “The economy's so strong…and nominal growth has been expanding and interest rates should be expanding. So I don't see interest rates as being way out of hand or that they're problematic. I see them as following the appropriate fair value higher right now, and that's why I think that they're no longer expensive” YIELD LEVELS: “I think the way I would look at it, if the bond market is offering me mid 5% yields, I want to start getting in. If it wants to offer me high 5% yields, I want to get in more. If it gets to 6%, I want to get in even more. They were too expensive for six years. That expensiveness is gone. I wouldn't go as far as call them cheap, but at least we've got this reflected. A 4% or low four yield, which we had maybe three or four months ago, did not reflect that. It does now. So that's priced into the market and that's why I would want to start this shift towards the bond market.” BEAR MARKET IS TIME NOT PRICE: “A bear market is time, not price. And what I mean by that is everybody says stock market always comes back. It does. But is it going to be 2000 where the market peaks and it comes back in 13 years to a new all-time high? Or is it going to be 2020 during COVID where the market peaks and goes down and in five months it makes a new all-time high? The market always comes back – but what if it takes 13 years?” 60/40: “So 60 / 40 was originally set up on that stocks and bonds would move in opposite directions. That was under the guise that there was no inflation. That's broken. But 60 / 40 as a set of numbers, I still think works. Bonds now have a place in your portfolio, not because they're a hedge against stocks going up or down, but because they've got a yield.” US DEBT PROBLEM OVERSTATED: “The debt problem itself is a bit overstated. If you look at the total level of debt, and you add in not just government debt, but you add in all private sector debt and all loans, it's 364% of gross domestic product in US, three and a half times the debt of the size of the economy. 20 years ago in 2006, it was 362%. It's exactly the same number as it was 20 years ago. What's changed is the mix has been much more government debt and private sector has been deleveraging since the financial crisis by reducing the level of debt that they have. That mix is more the concern than it is the level of debt. So I don't think that we're choking on debt in the United States yet.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:45 Bonds fair value 5:01 Why rates have surged 8:50 Fed still not credible 15:48 Warsh Fed unpacked 23:00 Bessent’s interventions 27:27 Risk of higher yields 29:40 Risk from foreign yields 32:24 High rates for stocks 36:37 Rise of retail traders 40:45 Debt problem overstated 44:40 Gold - constructive but disappointed 45:44 Bull on crypto 50:33 60/40 - still works but for new reasons 53:01 Start to BUY bonds 54:51 Bear Mkt is Time Not Price

5/8 Combine them and ALL debt/loans reached 370% of GDP in Q2 2026, effectively the same as it was 20 years ago: 368% in Q3 2006. There’s been no net addition to OVERALL debt levels relative to GDP in the last 20 years. What's changed is who is borrowing/deleveraging.

"Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." NY Fed Pres John Williams speech today (below) pushed the prob. of a down to hike to 44% (chart). Will this lack of Fed "panic" cause bond traders to "panic" bond yields higher? Check back Fri. after payrolls.