🚨NEW EPISODE🚨with JIM BIANCO @biancoresearch Jim outlines why he is making a major shift, following his correct 6 year bearish bonds call, to be constructive long bonds. "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds." We also hit: - why rates have surged - why it hasn't hit stocks more - why the Fed still isn't credible under Warsh...yet - the risk of higher yields – inc from France, UK, Japan - but nonetheless why long bonds are now attractive - 60/40 still works - not because of a hedge, but due to yield - bullish gold & crypto...with caveats - a bear market is time not price BUY BONDS: "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds. Now you're right, I'm not pounding the table that they're a buy because they're going to rally so yields fall – I'm not talking about the economy falling or the inflation situation turning around – but now you're finally getting paid for the risk appropriately.” GROWTH: “The economy's so strong…and nominal growth has been expanding and interest rates should be expanding. So I don't see interest rates as being way out of hand or that they're problematic. I see them as following the appropriate fair value higher right now, and that's why I think that they're no longer expensive” YIELD LEVELS: “I think the way I would look at it, if the bond market is offering me mid 5% yields, I want to start getting in. If it wants to offer me high 5% yields, I want to get in more. If it gets to 6%, I want to get in even more. They were too expensive for six years. That expensiveness is gone. I wouldn't go as far as call them cheap, but at least we've got this reflected. A 4% or low four yield, which we had maybe three or four months ago, did not reflect that. It does now. So that's priced into the market and that's why I would want to start this shift towards the bond market.” BEAR MARKET IS TIME NOT PRICE: “A bear market is time, not price. And what I mean by that is everybody says stock market always comes back. It does. But is it going to be 2000 where the market peaks and it comes back in 13 years to a new all-time high? Or is it going to be 2020 during COVID where the market peaks and goes down and in five months it makes a new all-time high? The market always comes back – but what if it takes 13 years?” 60/40: “So 60 / 40 was originally set up on that stocks and bonds would move in opposite directions. That was under the guise that there was no inflation. That's broken. But 60 / 40 as a set of numbers, I still think works. Bonds now have a place in your portfolio, not because they're a hedge against stocks going up or down, but because they've got a yield.” US DEBT PROBLEM OVERSTATED: “The debt problem itself is a bit overstated. If you look at the total level of debt, and you add in not just government debt, but you add in all private sector debt and all loans, it's 364% of gross domestic product in US, three and a half times the debt of the size of the economy. 20 years ago in 2006, it was 362%. It's exactly the same number as it was 20 years ago. What's changed is the mix has been much more government debt and private sector has been deleveraging since the financial crisis by reducing the level of debt that they have. That mix is more the concern than it is the level of debt. So I don't think that we're choking on debt in the United States yet.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:45 Bonds fair value 5:01 Why rates have surged 8:50 Fed still not credible 15:48 Warsh Fed unpacked 23:00 Bessent’s interventions 27:27 Risk of higher yields 29:40 Risk from foreign yields 32:24 High rates for stocks 36:37 Rise of retail traders 40:45 Debt problem overstated 44:40 Gold - constructive but disappointed 45:44 Bull on crypto 50:33 60/40 - still works but for new reasons 53:01 Start to BUY bonds 54:51 Bear Mkt is Time Not Price