Newbies and inexperienced traders/investors are so fixated on predictions that they have no idea what to do when the 50% of cases where they're wrong shows up.
âBut you said it was going to do #
A# and it didnât.â
Well yeah. I also said it could do #
B#, and sometimes #
C#. Didnât you plan or position for those outcomes too?
Bitcoin recently is a good example. It didnât follow through on my preferred path, which is just the one I thought was more likely. But so what? I still bought back a good amount at $64k after going 100% cash at $94k (avg), because guess what, option #
B# possibility was gaining traction.
Thatâs the point. Itâs not about the prediction. Your social clout does not build your portfolio.
Sadly, most inexperienced players canât even make money when their prediction comes true because theyâre so consumed with being right that they never properly think about positioning, risk, or what theyâll do next.
âOh, so youâre just covering every base. Could go up, could go down.â
No shit. Thatâs exactly the point.
I donât want to be surprised. I want to be positioned to get the best possible outcome across all viable scenarios.
Stop becoming so attached to one idea that you get trapped inside it. Think and trade in possibilities, be early enough and push harder when an outcome becomes clear.
Yes, youâll give up some upside to maintain that flexibility. Thatâs the cost. But youâll still participate when youâre right and youâll be protected when the market chooses one of the other paths.
The goal isnât to predict but be prepared to capture.