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Bogachan Ozdemir
@Bogachan_1971
CIO of Sagraphos Corp Ex Global Head of Rates and Swaps Desks of Citi, BNP and Barclays Rates, FX and Crypto Trader
309 Following    8.6K Followers
Michael Burry's last post reminds the previous bubbles. My generation started trading with dot com bubble, moved on with GFC and culminated with Covid. Everytime markets came back with more money supply to reach new levels, at least nominally. What is amazing is that the price of money kept going down despite supply more money with respect to economy. In response to Covid, #FederalReserve# did something we haven't seen before and increased the supply way over GDP... which brought us unicorns in stock market and cryptos to store the money. Burry's points are correct but timing is everything. In previous bubbles, correction always came after the money supply dried or stalled. We observed a mini version after 2022 when FED tried to reduce its balance sheet. When stocks started to wobble, FED responded with rate cuts despite no chance of #inflation# heading below 2%, even the fake one. Meanwhile, long end, as I posted so many times last 2 years, kept heading north... As foreigners started to balk away from US Trreasuries and bought #GOLD#, the long end kept pricing the real inflation. For now, markets want to play hakwish or dovish #KevinWarsh# and imaginary FED hikes. The idea is that they keep long end stalled with this kabuki after failing the inflation target since March 2021... over 5 years. In March 2000, #Nasdaq# / Gold was 17... today lower than 7.... so all these records are nominal... monopoly money. Can equities crash with so much fiat liquidity? As long as FED is ready to response with unlimited supply of more money, it is not that easy. We just saw how stocks reached new records as we lost nearly 20% of #OIL# supply just because FED and Treasury supplied more money than QE last 6 months. FED will not try to do anything else but lip service against this game they had been playing since GFC. Therefore the key is the bond market. If the sell of in bonds accelerate, then this sand castle might go down. Not before.
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