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CapexAndChill
@CapexAndChill
Long-term value in high conviction holdings. All thoughts are my own. NFA
313 Following    12.7K Followers
NYC just announced a $131.5M settlement with DoorDash over underpaid delivery workers. $115M goes directly to the workers. At the press conference, Mayor Mamdani quoted Tony Xu's July Uncapped remarks about taking "the greedy algorithm" all the way. Here's the actual quote, in full. $DASH
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Howard Marks: "Good investing doesn't come from buying good things. It comes from buying things well." There is no asset so good it can't become overpriced and dangerous.
MercadoLibre's CEO on the market's non-linear trajectory: "We are not optimizing the margins of this quarter or the next. We are optimizing the business for the next 10 years." $MELI
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4.88% of Brazil's banking system loan portfolio was 90+ days past due in July, the highest in 15-years. How about $NU and $MELI?
More than 1 million AI-analyzed shelf scans a day now feed DoorDash's new Brand Center, the evolution of its Ads Manager, launched yesterday for all U.S. advertisers. When an item is missing, nearly 12% of shoppers take a competing brand while more than 40% take a refund instead. Brand Center helps close this gap by selling brands down to merchandising tasks that dispatch Dashers into stores for audits, restocks, and displays. $DASH
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$APP sentiment is quite interesting. People are of the belief that this is a dying company, set to report declining revenues consistently quarter after quarter. This is SO far from the truth. In the recent Edgewater Research report, they make the argument that AppLovin has effectively hit their ceiling. Specifically - and this is important... The mobile gaming MAX supply ceiling. To the uneducated reader, this may come across as dramatic. AppLovin has a 73% share monopoly on ALL top-downloaded mobile game mediation. Essentially, AppLovin is the integrated ad-space auctioneer for this overwhelming majority of mobile games. It comes at NO surprise that they have more-less hit a ceiling here. The report continued to make the argument that AppLovin's QoQ growth has started to plateau, which indicates this ceiling has neared. This is not overly bearish - not at all. I'll explain why in a second. But first, there is this sentiment that competitors are going to release superior models and displace AppLovin's monopoly. I think there is a vast technological misunderstanding here. AppLovin has the superior models achieving superior outcomes for both buyer and seller because they have the lions-share of the market - looking at this through a perhaps naive lens you may assume that one could just come and "take" market share with a superior model or product... But you're missing a critical piece of the puzzle. These game developer companies literally rely on AppLovin for revenue. There is a dependency here. Their models have become so good, that every dollar spend by a game developer on AppLovin's ecosystem, leads to an dipropionate increase of revenue generated. They accomplish this by real-time model refinement and data ingestion through each SDK install within their MAX mediation network. 1 billion DAUs playing thousands of the top-downloaded games produce a lot of 1P data in real-time. It is this very data that gives AppLovin their edge - and it's this very edge that the game-developers rely on to stay profitable. The game developers would have to gamble with solvency, just to jump-ship and divert spend/integrations with a competitor. This would be a horrible business decision. So the compounding outcome is exponential for AppLovin. The developers are locked in because their ability to generate revenue has become an arbitrage of dollars spent on platform. And this relationship only exists if they stay integrated with AppLovin, thus feeding them the data which refines their models that produces the superior outcomes each developer desires. It's a self-fulfilling flywheel. Interestingly - the party with the superior dataset will always produce the superior model. It just so happens that AppLovin has the largest market-share, the top-download apps, and real-time data ingestion for the 1 billion DAU audience it has created. Good luck displacing this juggernaut with an inferior dataset. Now, let's circle back to plateauing revenues QoQ. Yes, with 73% market-share eventually your revenue potential here will start to cap-out. Though AppLovin has started to expand self-serve demand by allowing DTC Shopify brands or consumer brands to also buy ad-space on the network - this has been a modest start. Even though we have recently seen an uptick of pixel installs on consumer sites (this is a strong indicator of the amount/velocity of new advertisers ramping). The true potential unlock for further growth and TAM expansion, is the natural unlock beyond the confined four-walls of mobile-gaming AppLovin finds themselves in. This is called "supply-side expansion". Adam, the CEO has outlined this himself... 1/2
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Jensen Huang, CEO of the world's most valuable company, does not know his own address or phone number. "I can live with it." $NVDA
Zuck to Joanna Stern: "In the future everyone's going to have a personal agent that basically can do things for them, will understand their goals, understand their context and can get things done for you." Also how is it not clear that @Muse is not just a chat bot? $META
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Zuck on the vision for glasses: "Billions of people in the world wear glasses. And I would guess that just like most of the flip phones, you kind of knew they were going to become smartphones. I would guess that most of the glasses that people have today, you just know that at some point they're going to become AI glasses or smart glasses. It's just, if it can help improve your vision, if it can help improve your hearing, if it can help you remember things, like why would you not?" $META
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Costco on their DoorDash and Uber partnership expansion: “We continue to make progress on digital and fiscal year 2026. Digitally enabled sales, which include third-party delivery, exceeded $33 billion and was an increase of more than 20%. Over the last few weeks, we further expanded the ways in which our members can engage with us online, with the announcement that our Uber Eats partnership is growing from 17 states to the entire U.S., as well as expansion of DoorDash partnership to include the U.S. These partnerships will complement the successful long-term partnership that we've had with Instacart in the U.S. and Canada. Members using these new marketplaces are significantly younger than our overall member base. Average delivery times across all three platforms are under an hour, bringing increased convenience in addition to our great values. We've observed that these sales through these channels are mostly incremental, with limited impact on our core warehouse grocery business. Our membership continues to be the most important item we sell, in the additional benefits we introduced for executive members last year continue to resonate well. Executive member penetration reached an all-time high in fiscal year 2026. Renewal rates showed improvements again this quarter, with the increasing executive penetration likely to help improve those rates in the future.” $DASH $UBER $COST
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Yea because if you want a really successful business you want to dilute talent with bureaucracy and manage it like IBM. Meta did exactly what they needed to do. 🫡 @alexandr_wang $META
How it started How it's going
Unity scary $APP $U
Tenjin: Mobile Gaming Benchmark 2026... "AppLovin strengthened its lead on iOS in Q2, increasing from 39% to 44% of ad revenue share." Here are the rev-share stats from Q1 to Q2: $U - Unity: - iOS: 13% → 14% - Android: 12% → 12% $APP - AppLovin: - iOS: 39% → 44% - Android: 19% → 23% Mintegral: - iOS: 21% → 16% - Android: 17% → 12% I'm not convinced this narrative that Unity is taking market-share from AppLovin is valid. More market-share = More data = better models. $APP $U
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In case it is not clear, @Muse has completely disrupted the industry by building agentic AI for the mass market. Now, they will be a staple for consumers and have the ability to move upmarket too. Having the absolute best model is meaningless if the harness is the least adoptable. $META
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Being able to create iterative games in under [5-10] minutes, all seamlessly within the app, is impressive. Truly a great product! @Muse @alexandr_wang Can only imagine token usage going explosive from here…
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Zuck at Connect: "we made the decision to focus a little bit less on metaverse for now, build fewer VR devices, and only release them when we have real breakthroughs." This new release is that aforementioned breakthrough. $META
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I’ve seen a couple of posts about this so wanted to demystify. Today, every Muse user gets a free computer in the cloud. It's a real computer, and we’ve designed the security architecture of the Muse Secure VM carefully so you and your Muse can do almost anything you could with a computer sitting under your desk while keeping you and the system safe from threats like prompt injection. We wrote about this at length in our security blog post – Activity in the “runtime cell”, which you share with your Muse is unfettered, but sensitive actions are all overseen by the Sentinel, which runs outside of that cell. Similarly, all sensitive secrets - like the passwords you enter into Muse’s secure credential storage - are also stored outside the runtime cell. The runtime cell gets its own root filesystem (including a full Ubuntu linux image) separate from the host filesystem where your other more sensitive data lives. Because it is isolated from the sensitive stuff that runs on the same box, this means that we can, and do, offer users full visibility and control over the files in the runtime cell. Just as you can when you install Linux on your home computer, you can poke around and see all the files that make the system work - both debian system files and the binaries and data files that implement the parts of Muse which run in the runtime cell. This was a very deliberate choice - your Muse Secure VM truly is your own computer in the cloud. You can install software in it, write and compile code, use the browser to surf the web: it is your own Linux box that you can operate as you choose with your Muse. Poking around in this computer doesn't give you any privileged access to Meta infrastructure, or to other people's data If I may geek out a little here for a second… As a kid I loved to take things apart to see how they worked. As a teenager I got into computers and soon found myself drawn to C:\WINDOWS\SYSTEM and the system registry, later Slackware’s /dev/, /proc/ etc – I could see how the system was laid out and as I explored what DLL files and .so files actually did, I gradually became able to meld the computer to my own will. We’re really proud to be able to put a real computer in millions of people’s hands with a similar level of transparency. We built a file explorer right into the Library tab of the UI. We want you to be able to see the markdown files Muse writes while it thinks about how to serve you better, and explore the internals of the system if you’d like to. So, when you ask your Muse to show you its entire filesystem, and receive gigabytes of files you’re seeing the full contents of the runtime cell. It’s yours to explore and enjoy! If you’re not a geek like me, or simply want to download the data that you personally have created directly with your Muse, we added a feature for that too in Settings > Data controls > Download your agent data.
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Zuck at Connect: Meta glasses get a Muse upgrade in the coming weeks: "instead of getting a single response to a question that you ask, you're now going to be able to say, hey Agrippa, or whatever your muse's name is, and your muse will be ready to talk." Full voice capabilities, full conversation context, background task execution. $META
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Alexandr Wang at Meta Connect: Meta opened the Muse connector platform to developers last week and got over 1,500 applications in less than a week. "I think this could be a generational opportunity to start building for a new platform as it takes off." $META
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Muse Charm, a keychain with the full Muse real-time voice and avatar stack. Tap the fingerprint sensor and start talking, no phone needed. Ships for the holidays. $META
NYC just announced a $131.5M settlement with DoorDash over underpaid delivery workers. $115M goes directly to the workers. At the press conference, Mayor Mamdani quoted Tony Xu's July Uncapped remarks about taking "the greedy algorithm" all the way. Here's the actual quote, in full. $DASH
Show more
4.88% of Brazil's banking system loan portfolio was 90+ days past due in July, the highest in 15-years. How about $NU and $MELI?