Average NASDAQ 100 gain one year later 27.3% with 100% of historical cases higher. $QQQ $XLK $SMH
NDX has risen 4.93% over the last 3 trading days, while 20-day realized volatility remains below 20%.
Historically, similar setups have been quite bullish over the long run.
In every completed historical instance, 12-month forward returns were positive.
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“Don’t let this doomsday narrative cause somebody to relieve them of the laws that currently exist. Now, go and read between the lines. They’re actually not asking for more laws, they’re asking to be relieved of the laws we do have, and I think that’s a problem. We have plenty of laws. Let’s apply those first. ”
Jensen Huang
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🚨BREAKING: Jensen Huang just EXPOSED Dario and Altman’s "Rogue AI" grift to avoid getting sued into oblivion under EXISTING law
“Don't let this doomsday narrative cause somebody to relieve them of the laws that currently exist.
Go and read between the lines. They're actually not asking for more laws; they're asking to be relieved of the laws we do have.”
ABSOLUTE TRUTH NUKE
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Not surprisingly, the media and politicians tend to focus on the negative side of AI. Anyone using AI extensively knows firsthand about the incredible productivity boost that is already within reach.
"there are so many smart people, and they are smart... these people are wrong"
NASDAQ weekly cloud checking 5 of 5 bullish boxes. Click on image to enlarge, then compare Sept 2026 to Q1 2022 when rates/inflation/Fed were all showstoppers for stocks.
Thanks in advance to those who retweet, fav, and comment on the upcoming tweet for this week's video. The tweet should surface on Friday evening. C & K
Steve Nash shares the truth about the journey to greatness.
"You don't have to be the chosen one."
"The secret is to build the resolve and spirit to enjoy the plateaus - the times when it doesn't feel like you're improving and you question why you're doing this."
Most people quit during the plateau. Learn to embrace it.
"If you're patient, the plateaus will become springboards."
Progress isn't linear. The flat moments aren't wasted - they're building.
"Never stop striving, reaching for your goals until you get there."
"But the truth is, even when you get there - even when you get here, standing on this stage - it's the striving, fighting, pushing yourself to the limit every day that you'll miss and you'll long for."
"You'll never be more alive than when you give something everything you have."
The destination isn't the reward - the journey is.
Enjoy the process and fall in love with the climb because that's where life happens.
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If you like to make decisions based on comparisons between 2026 and relevant bull/bear turning points in history, you should enjoy this week's video.
Facts > Narratives & Forecasts
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$VIX now down for the week and down 12.03% intraday.
Only red sector intraday is defensive consumer staples. XLP SPY XLK
AAII Bearish Sentiment highest in months.
This applies to all of us, including yours truly, and is especially relevant in the context of Fed/2026 market:
"The market does not care what you think."
Day by day, reviewing data/charts with a flexible, unbiased and open mind.
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The cover of Time magazine in 2006 and 2026. From "climate change will destroy humanity" to "AI will destroy humanity".
One way to look at today's hike:
“I don’t think these interest rates do anything to the equity markets. If you look at the percentage of profits that’s used to pay interest payments – it’s at 5%. Back in 2000, it was at 35% of profits.”
Larry Adam
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25 bp hike as market expected.
Fed funds futures are generally very reliable this close to an FOMC meeting. A 2026 study found FedWatch was 88% accurate even 30 days out, with accuracy improving as meetings approached. With a 25-bp hike now priced near 87%, a hold Wednesday would be a significant surprise.
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the bloomberg terminal took three years to build before one customer paid for it. michael bloomberg, now worth $109 billion, says that gap is the reason nobody ever caught up:
"there was a need. nobody really thought that having that computer in the middle was useful. and by the time it was done, which was three years before we really had a customer, it was too late for anybody to catch up."
"since then there are plenty of people who have good products, but they only do one or two of the 10 or 20 things that we do."
"we just focused on building the best thing we could, and not necessarily always listening to what the customers want. I've always asked, and customers can be very valuable, but that doesn't mean they are able to think in terms of what we could do with a computer."
three years of no revenue looks identical to failure while you are inside it. takes a lot of grit to continue.
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Stocks & First Rate Hike:
Fed has launched six rate-hike campaigns since mid-1990s. Stocks tended to be weak for four months. A year after first hike, the average S&P 500 gain was 10.7%.
Source: LPL Financial & WSJ
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AI Safety and Developmet:
“If they feel like they should slow down, then they should slow down. If they feel they should speed up, they should speed up. And then they should be held accountable.”
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff
9/15/2026
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“.. S&P 1500 Software revenue per employee has gone parabolic. If you are looking for evidence that AI is starting to impact the real economy, this is exhibit A.”
(via OpCo desk)
@3F_Research
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Applies to recent news related to AI development and safety.